Fuel Poverty in Wales: Definition, Rate and Strategy

Around 340,000 households in Wales, one in every four, were in fuel poverty in October 2024, according to the Welsh Government's modelled estimates¹. A further 215,000 households, 16%, were at risk of it, and 63,000, 5%, were in severe fuel poverty, needing to spend more than a fifth of their income just to keep warm¹.

Wales measures fuel poverty differently from England. A household is counted as fuel poor if it would need to spend more than 10% of its full household income, including housing-related benefits and after council tax, on all household fuel use to maintain a satisfactory heating regime¹. That definition, and the estimates built on it, matter for any household weighing up insulation, a new heating system or a grant, because the schemes that follow the money in Wales, above all the Warm Homes Nest scheme, are targeted using these numbers².

Defining fuel poverty in Wales: the three income thresholds

Wales uses a full-income definition of fuel poverty. A household is considered to be in fuel poverty if it needs to spend more than 10% of its income, including housing-related benefits and net of council tax, on all household fuel use to maintain a satisfactory heating regime¹. The same definition appears in the Welsh Government's plan for tackling fuel poverty, published in March 2021: households needing to pay more than 10% of their full household income to maintain a satisfactory heating regime⁴.

The "satisfactory heating regime" is spelled out in temperatures and hours, not left as a matter of opinion. For households containing an older or disabled person, it means 23°C in the living room and 18°C in other rooms, achieved for 16 hours in every 24-hour period. For all other households it means 21°C in the living room and 18°C in other rooms, for nine hours in every 24 on weekdays and 16 hours in every 24 at weekends¹. The fuel poverty calculation asks what the household would need to spend to reach those temperatures, not what it actually spends, which is why a cold, under-heated home can still be counted as fuel poor.

Around the 10% threshold sit two further bands. A household needing to spend between 8 and 10% of its income is classed as being at risk of fuel poverty, and any household having to spend more than 20% is defined as being in severe fuel poverty¹. The strategy document sets these out as its working definitions: fuel poverty above 10% of full household income, severe fuel poverty above 20%⁴.

Two further definitions shape the statistics. A vulnerable household is one containing a person aged 60 or over, a dependent child or children under 16, a single person under 25, or a person living with a long-term illness or disability¹. A lower income household is one whose income is less than 60% of the median household income in the UK before housing costs¹. Both groups are reported separately in the estimates, because the Welsh Government's targets and its Warm Homes Programme are framed around them.

A quarter of Welsh households in fuel poverty, October 2024

The headline figure is stark. Around 340,000 households, 25% of all households in Wales, were in fuel poverty as at October 2024, including 63,000 (5%) in severe fuel poverty, with a further 215,000 (16%) at risk¹. The Welsh Government repeated the figure in a written statement: 340,000 households in Wales, 25%, were living in fuel poverty in October 2024, with a further 215,000, 16%, estimated to have been at risk⁵. A later statement described the estimated 340,000 households, 25%, living in fuel poverty when setting out support⁶.

The rise from earlier estimates is large. Previous figures were 196,000 households (14%) in 2021 and 155,000 (12%) in 2018¹. The 2018 estimates, published in 2019, put 155,000 households in fuel poverty, with 43% of households living in properties in EPC bands F and G fuel poor, compared with 5% in bands B to C⁷. The Welsh Government cautions that, due to differences in methodology, the 2024 modelled estimates cannot be directly compared with previous figures, though broad comparisons can be made¹.

What drove the change is visible in the modelled costs and incomes behind the estimates. Mean annual household fuel costs for a satisfactory heating regime rose by 74%, from £1,343 in 2018 to £2,335 in 2024, while the modelled median annual household income rose 33%, from £23,600 to £31,400¹. Between 2021 and 2024, fuel costs rose 48% from £1,577 to £2,335, against a CPIH inflation rate that reached 7.9% in 2022, driven by rising energy prices, before easing to 3.3% in 2024¹. Fuel costs simply outran incomes.

The energy price shock of 2022 showed how sensitive the measure is to prices. Welsh Government analysis estimated that 45% of Welsh households, 614,000, could have been in fuel poverty following the April 2022 price cap increase⁸. That figure was widely cited at the time, including in the announcement of a fuel voucher scheme, which noted that current estimates suggested up to 45% of all households in Wales could be in fuel poverty following increases to the energy price cap⁹. The October 2024 reference point was chosen because it falls in line with the energy price cap reviews¹.

Households in deep fuel poverty and those at risk

The 63,000 households in severe fuel poverty in October 2024, 5% of all households, are the group for whom the cost of warmth consumes more than a fifth of income¹. Within lower income households specifically, 56,000 (24%) were in severe fuel poverty, and within vulnerable households, 46,000 (4%)¹. The at-risk band, households needing to spend between 8 and 10% of income, covered 215,000 households (16%) overall, including 198,000 vulnerable households (17%) and 28,000 lower income households (12%)¹.

Earlier estimates give a sense of how these bands have moved, with the caveat that the methods differ. In 2021, 38,000 households (3%) were estimated to be living in severe fuel poverty and 153,000 (11%) at risk¹⁰. The 2018 consultation on the strategy reported 32,000 households in severe fuel poverty, equivalent to 2% of households, and an estimated 144,504 households at risk, spending between 8 and 10% of their household income on fuel costs¹¹. The strategy that followed committed to more than halving the number of households at risk, based on the 2018 estimate, by 2035⁴.

The severe band matters because it is where health risk concentrates. The Welsh Government describes its crisis support as designed to help households facing an immediate risk to their health and wellbeing due to a lack of essential heating or hot water¹². For households in the severe band, that risk is not hypothetical: the model says keeping the home at the required temperatures would take more than a fifth of everything coming in.

Which groups face the greatest risk: age, employment, tenure, income

The October 2024 estimates show fuel poverty is not evenly spread across Welsh households. Single-person households were the most affected, accounting for 55% of all fuel-poor households, and the most common household type among them was single pensioners without children, making up 32% of all fuel-poor households¹. Single pensioner households without children were also the most likely to be fuel poor by rate: 43% of them were living in fuel poverty, compared with 8% of households with two adults and children¹.

Age and work status both matter. Households where the household reference person was aged 75 or over had a fuel poverty rate of 44%, and just over half, 51%, of all fuel-poor households had a household reference person aged 65 or over¹. Households with an unemployed household reference person were the most likely to be in fuel poverty at 56%, followed by those who were economically inactive at 37%, while households with someone in employment were the least likely, at 10%¹. Among households with a reference person aged 35 to 44, the rate was 10%¹.

Tenure tells a clear story. Households in the private rented sector were the most likely to be fuel poor, at 30%, compared with 24% of owner occupiers and 22% of those in social housing¹. Yet because owner-occupation is the largest tenure, more than two thirds of households in fuel poverty, 68%, were owner-occupied¹. This is the practical point for policy: most fuel-poor households own their homes and must fund, or be helped to fund, improvements themselves.

Income and benefits cut the rates sharply. Of all households on means-tested benefits, 19% were fuel poor, compared with 12% of those not on these benefits¹. In 2024, 40% of households in fuel poverty received means-tested benefits, including housing-related benefits¹. Among lower income households as a whole, defined as income below 60% of the UK median before housing costs, around 195,000, 83%, were in fuel poverty¹. The earlier 2021 estimates showed the same concentration: 130,000 lower income households, 59%, were estimated to be living in fuel poverty, and 169,000 vulnerable households, 14%¹.

Dwelling characteristics linked to the highest fuel poverty rates

The physical character of the home is one of the strongest predictors of fuel poverty in Wales. Households living in older properties were more likely to be fuel poor, with 33% of households in pre-1919 dwellings fuel poor, compared with 14% of those in more modern properties built after 1980¹. Wales has one of the oldest housing stocks in the UK, which is why this pattern matters so much here.

Walls and heating system follow the same gradient. Households in dwellings with solid walls were more likely to be fuel poor, at 33%, than those in dwellings with cavity walls¹; the detailed analysis puts the solid-wall figure at 32%¹. Whether cavity walls were insulated made no significant difference in the 2024 estimates: 21% of households with insulated cavity walls were fuel poor, against 22% with uninsulated cavity walls¹. By contrast, the 2018 estimates found 21% of households living in properties with uninsulated solid walls were fuel poor⁷.

Heating fuel makes a dramatic difference. Among households using electricity for heating, 53% were classed as being in fuel poverty, and 30% of those using other types of fuel, compared with an estimated 22% of households that used mains gas for heating¹³. Dwellings without central heating had a fuel poverty rate of 59%, compared with 23% for those with central heating¹. Rural households were somewhat more exposed than urban ones: 26% of households in rural locations were fuel poor, compared with 24% in urban areas¹.

Energy efficiency, measured by EPC band, is the sharpest single divide: 59% of households in bands F or G were fuel poor, against 15% in bands A to C¹. The 2018 estimates showed the same shape, with 43% of households in bands F and G fuel poor against 5% in bands B to C⁷. Social housing has the highest percentage of dwellings in EPC band C or above of any tenure sector in Wales, which helps explain its lower fuel poverty rate¹⁴. The Welsh Government publishes a map layer showing the number and percentage of households in fuel poverty by Lower Super Output Area, for households wanting to see how their immediate area compares¹⁵.

How the figures are calculated and their limitations

The Welsh fuel poverty estimates are modelled, not surveyed. Household energy requirements are modelled using the Building Research Establishment Domestic Energy Model, BREDEM 2012 version 1.1, and the estimates use the Welsh Housing Conditions Survey 2017-18 as their base¹⁶. The weighting factors were uniformly adjusted to represent 1.39 million households in Wales in 2024, based on 1.385 million households in 2024 and 1.379 million in 2021¹. October 2024 was chosen as the reference point because it falls in line with the energy price cap reviews¹.

The age of the underlying survey is the main limit. The Welsh Government notes that a new Housing Survey is currently planned for 2027-28, which will provide more up-to-date raw data to underpin future fuel poverty estimates¹. Until then, the estimates combine a 2017-18 picture of the housing stock with more recent price and income data, so they capture price movements well but changes in the housing stock, such as insulation installed since then, less well.

The House of Commons Library, summarising the position across the UK, notes that estimates for Wales and Northern Ireland had not been published for 2022 or later years at the time of its briefing, in contrast to England and Scotland¹⁷. The detailed report on the October 2024 estimates, published in October 2025, followed headline results published in August 2025¹⁶. The Welsh Government states plainly that, due to differences in methodology, the 2024 modelled estimates cannot be directly compared with previous figures, though broad comparisons can be made¹. Any household reading a headline that fuel poverty has "doubled" should treat the trend with that caution.

Why comparing UK nations is difficult

Each UK nation measures fuel poverty differently, so the headline rates are not a like-for-like league table. The Commons Library briefing sets out the different definitions: in Wales 291,000 households were projected to be in fuel poverty under the 10% measure in 2016, which was 23% of households, while England uses a low-income, high-cost measure¹⁸. The briefing also records 14% in Wales on the more recent estimates available to it¹⁷.

The timing of the estimates differs too. England and Scotland publish more frequent estimates than Wales, and the Commons Library notes that estimates for Wales and Northern Ireland had not been published for 2022 or later years at the time of writing¹⁷. The Climate Change Committee, in its advice on Wales' fourth carbon budget, cites 14% of Welsh households in fuel poverty in 2021, the figure then current¹⁹. A UK-wide summary of government figures also put Wales at 14% on the estimates available before the October 2024 round²⁰.

The practical consequence is that a household comparing support across Britain should compare the schemes, not the percentages. Scotland has its own statutory targets and a different definition, set out on our page on fuel poverty in Scotland, and Northern Ireland's approach is covered on our page on fuel poverty in Northern Ireland. The wider differences between the nations' energy systems are explained in our guide to home energy across the UK nations.

Support available: Nest and the Warm Homes Programme

The Welsh Government's main practical response is the Warm Homes Nest scheme, which offers free energy efficiency advice and improvements to low-income Welsh households²¹. Nest is a Welsh Government scheme²², and it provides all households in Wales with free, impartial advice to help reduce energy bills and maximise income, regardless of eligibility for physical improvements²³. The scheme's stated purpose is to make Welsh homes warmer and more energy efficient places to live.

Eligibility for home improvements is targeted. Nest looks to support people in Wales living on a lower income who receive a means-tested benefit or live with a respiratory, circulatory or mental health condition²⁴. The conditions are: own or privately rent the home; receive a means-tested benefit or live in a low-income household; and live in a home with an EPC rating of 54 (band E) or less, or 68 (band D) or less where a household member has an eligible health condition²⁵.

• Free advice: available to all householders in Wales via the Nest helpline⁶
• Home improvements: for eligible lower-income households, including a suite of energy efficiency measures¹⁸
• Crisis route: for households currently without heating or hot water, facing an immediate risk to health and wellbeing¹²
• Repairs: to boilers or electric storage heaters, to restore heating or hot water as quickly as possible¹²

Applying is straightforward: call Nest free on 0808 808 2244 or visit nest.gov.wales²⁴. The Welsh Government's guidance on help with unexpected costs directs households to call the Nest advice line on 0808 808 2244¹². Households using oil or LPG heating have also been helped with heating costs through the scheme²¹.

Nest sits within a wider programme that is being reshaped. The new Warm Homes Programme will take over from Nest as the Welsh Government's primary mechanism to tackle fuel poverty¹⁰. The policy statement for the new programme says all households in Wales, not just those in or at risk of fuel poverty, should continue to be eligible to access it for advice and support, while investment in improvements should focus on households least able to pay for improvements themselves: those in, or at risk of, fuel poverty and those in severe fuel poverty, in the owner-occupier, private rented and housing co-operative sectors²⁶. The scheme's performance is reported annually, with the first annual report on the Nest scheme's performance in 2024 to 2025 published in March 2026²⁷.

Wales's fuel poverty strategy and its commitments

Wales has a published plan with dated targets. The Tackling Fuel Poverty Plan 2021 to 2035 was published in March 2021, setting targets together with ten short-term actions to be delivered by the Welsh Government²⁸. The plan was published in March 2021, with the first review published in June 2025¹.

The 2035 targets are specific. By 2035, the aim is to have no more than 5% of all Welsh households living in fuel poverty and no households in persistent or severe fuel poverty, as far as reasonably practicable³. The number of all households at risk of falling into fuel poverty is to be more than halved, based on the 2018 estimate, by 2035⁴. The same commitments appear in the impact assessment for the new Warm Homes Programme³.

Progress towards those targets has been mixed by any reading. The Welsh Government has previously reported that the level of fuel poverty in Wales reduced by more than half over the ten years to 2019, with around 177,000 households lifted out of fuel poverty since 2008²⁹. Against that, the October 2024 estimates put 25% of households in fuel poverty, far above the 5% target for 2035, and the Commons Library records that Wales once had a target to eradicate fuel poverty by 2018, a date long past³⁰. The gap between the 2035 aim and the current estimate is the central policy fact.

The strategy also links fuel poverty to the decarbonisation of Welsh housing. The Welsh Government's analysis of decarbonising Welsh housing between 2020 and 2050 notes that, despite numerous energy efficiency initiatives, almost a quarter of Welsh households experience fuel poverty³¹. The Climate Change Committee's advice on Wales' fourth carbon budget likewise refers to households in Wales, including those in less energy efficient houses or in fuel poverty, 14% of Welsh households in 2021¹⁹. The Welsh Housing Quality Standard includes affordable warmth, ensuring households can afford to heat their homes and be lifted out of fuel poverty³². The logic is that the same improvements, insulation, better heating and smarter controls, serve both goals.

Implications for household energy self sufficiency

For an individual household, the Welsh fuel poverty framework is less about the national statistics and more about what they unlock. The Nest scheme, and the new Warm Homes Programme that will succeed it as the primary mechanism, direct public money towards insulation and heating improvements for households that cannot fund them, which is precisely the work that reduces a home's dependence on bought energy²¹. A household whose fuel bills fall after retrofit is less exposed to every future price cap rise, and less dependent on the supplier and the wholesale market.

The limits are equally real. Fuel poverty in Wales is driven by three things the household mostly cannot control: the energy efficiency of the dwelling, the price of energy, and household income. The estimates show the oldest, least efficient homes carrying the highest rates, with 59% of households in EPC bands F or G fuel poor¹. No amount of behavioural change makes a pre-1919 solid-walled house cheap to heat. And the support on offer is conditional: Nest's physical improvements require a means-tested benefit or a low-income household, plus an EPC rating of 54 or less, or 68 or less with an eligible health condition²⁵. Households above those thresholds, including many owner-occupiers in hard-to-heat homes, are left to fund improvements themselves.

For households that can act, the direction of travel is clear. The Welsh Government's own analysis ties fuel poverty to the decarbonisation of the housing stock, and its guidance on heat pumps points eligible households to the Warm Homes Nest scheme for free energy advice and improvements¹⁸. Reducing a home's energy demand, whether through a scheme or self-funded, is the one lever that permanently lowers the share of income that warmth costs. The national target, no more than 5% of households in fuel poverty by 2035, is a measure of how far that lever still has to move³.