Fuel Poverty in Scotland: Definition, Rate and the 2040 Target

Fuel poverty in Scotland is defined in law, measured annually and tracked against statutory targets that run to 2040. A household is fuel poor if the fuel costs needed to maintain a satisfactory heating regime would take more than 10% of its adjusted net income after housing costs, and the income left after paying them is not enough to maintain an acceptable standard of living¹. The most recent survey estimate, from the Scottish House Condition Survey 2024, put 732,000 households in fuel poverty, a decrease of 127,000 or five percentage points on the previous year¹.

Modelling based on Ofgem energy price caps gives a higher and more current picture: around 820,000 fuel poor households, 32% of all households in Scotland, for the October to December 2026 cap period, an increase of around 20,000 households on the previous quarter². An earlier modelling run for January to March 2026 estimated around 800,000 households, 31% of all households, of whom around 400,000, 16% of all households, would be in extreme fuel poverty³. The two sets of figures measure different periods and answer different questions, and this page sets out both, along with the drivers behind them, how Scotland's definition differs from the rest of the UK, and the programmes that sit behind the 2040 target.

How a household is judged fuel poor under the dual test

Scotland's definition is statutory, set out in section 3 of the Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act, and it has two parts that must both be satisfied⁶. First, the total fuel costs necessary for the home must be more than 10% of the household's adjusted net income after housing costs. Second, after deducting fuel costs, benefits received for a care need or disability, and childcare costs, the household's remaining adjusted net income must be insufficient to maintain an acceptable standard of living¹. That standard is set at least 90% of the UK Minimum Income Standard, as calculated by Loughborough University⁶.

The second part matters because it separates Scotland's measure from a simple percentage-of-income test. A household on a very high income could spend more than 10% of it on fuel and still live comfortably; under the Scottish definition it would not count as fuel poor, because its remaining income would be sufficient. Conversely, a household spending less than 10% but left without enough to live on after fuel bills would also fall outside the definition, which is one reason the measured rate does not capture every household that struggles with bills.

Extreme fuel poverty follows the same definition, except that the household would have to spend more than 20% of its adjusted net income after housing costs on total fuel costs to maintain a satisfactory heating regime¹. The thresholds are commonly summarised as more than 10% of net income for fuel poverty and 20% for extreme fuel poverty, after housing costs have been deducted⁷.

Two further features shape who is counted. The definition includes an additional amount added for households in remote rural, remote small town and island areas, recognising that fuel costs there are higher⁸. And the heating regime itself is set in the legislation, which is one of the points on which Scotland's definition diverges from England's, as explained later on this page.

Survey data and price cap modelling: the numbers explained

Scotland measures fuel poverty in two ways, and the difference between them is worth understanding before quoting any single number.

The Scottish House Condition Survey is the official statistical measure. Its 2024 key findings estimated 732,000 households in fuel poverty, corresponding to a decrease of 127,000, or five percentage points, in the number of households in fuel poverty compared with 2023⁹. The survey is a physical inspection of a sample of homes combined with a household interview, so it captures the energy efficiency of the dwelling as well as income and fuel costs.

The second measure is scenario modelling based on Ofgem energy price caps, published by the Scottish Government to show what the rate would be under current prices. For the October to December 2026 cap period it estimates around 820,000 fuel poor households, 32% of all households, an increase of around 20,000 households from estimates for July to September 2026². For January to March 2026 the modelling estimated around 800,000 households, 31% of all households, with around 400,000 in extreme fuel poverty, 16% of all households, and 50% of all fuel poor households in extreme fuel poverty³.

The longer run of survey figures shows how sharply the rate moves with prices. In 2012, 27.1% of households in Scotland were in fuel poverty¹⁰. The 2015 estimate was 748,000 households, 30.7% of all households¹¹. By 2017 the rate was 23.7%, around 583,000 households¹², and the 2019 estimate was 24.6%, or 613,000 households¹³. The 2021 survey, conducted under the newer statutory definition, estimated 495,000 households, 19.6% of all households, with an actual median fuel poverty gap for fuel poor households of £690¹⁴. The House of Commons Library reports the rate at 34% in Scotland for a later period, reflecting the price surge, and notes that the definition used in Scotland is sensitive to changes in fuel prices, which caused a substantial increase in estimated fuel poverty between 2019 and 2023¹⁵. The Scottish Government's own engagement on its 2021 to 2024 periodic report used 24% of households as the benchmark figure for 2019 and noted that rates across Scotland are likely to range from around 1 in 2 to 1 in 5 households depending on geography and demographics¹⁶.

Factors behind the rate

The Scottish Government states that fuel poverty is affected by four key drivers: levels of household income, the price of fuel required for space and water heating, the energy efficiency of the dwelling, and the required use of fuel by households to maintain satisfactory heating regimes¹⁷. Its fuel poverty strategy expresses the same four drivers as poor energy efficiency of the home, low household income, high energy prices, and how energy is used in the home¹⁸. Two of the four are explicitly finance-related, energy prices and income, which is why the rate moves so sharply when the price cap changes.

Heating fuel makes a large difference. In 2024, an estimated 27% of households that used gas for heating were in fuel poverty, compared with 42% of households using electricity, 26% using other fuels, and 13% of those using oil¹⁹. Modelling for January to March 2026 found that fuel poor households using electricity as their primary heating fuel have a significantly higher median fuel poverty gap, at around £2,000 per year³. Research into the lived experience of fuel poverty found that 95% of households in the bottom income band, under £200 per week, were in fuel poverty, and that users of solid fuel generally purchased it directly from local suppliers and often stockpiled it over the summer to make sure they had enough for the colder winter months²⁰.

The price sensitivity of the definition cuts both ways. The modelling that tested the removal of the Renewables Obligation and Energy Company Obligation levies from bills estimated that fuel poverty would fall to around 730,000 households, 29%, and extreme fuel poverty to 350,000 households, 14%, a reduction of around 60,000 households or 2.5 percentage points in fuel poverty and 50,000 households in extreme fuel poverty³. That is the scale of the effect of bill levies alone, before any change to income, efficiency or heating systems.

Housing tenure, location and household characteristics

Fuel poverty in Scotland is not evenly distributed, and the pattern is consistent across survey years.

By tenure, the 2024 survey found overall rates of fuel poverty differed between the social sector, at 49%, and the private sector, at 22%¹. The 2023 survey had shown an even sharper split, 61% in the social sector against 25% in the private sector²¹, and earlier years show the same shape: 48% against 26% in 2022¹³ and 34% against 15% in 2021¹⁴. Within the private sector, owner occupiers are not uniform either: in 2022, 14% of those with a mortgage and 28% of those who owned outright were assessed to be fuel poor¹³.

Geography drives the rate hard. The 2022 survey found the fuel poverty rate for rural households, at 35%, was higher than for urban households, at 30%, and that the rate for remote rural households, at 47%, was higher than for all other areas¹³. The island communities impact assessment for the Heat in Buildings Strategy reported fuel poverty levels higher in remote rural areas, at 43%, and remote small towns, at 34%, than in urban areas, at 24%, compared with a Scotland average for extreme fuel poverty of 12% in the 2018 to 2019 period²². Local authority tables published in May 2026 for the 2022 to 2024 period show rates ranging from 22% in Stirling to 51% in Orkney Islands, against a Scotland average of 31%⁸. More detail is on our pages on fuel poverty in rural and urban Scotland, the worst areas for fuel poverty in Scotland and energy costs in Scotland's islands and remote areas.

Deprivation and household type add further layers. In 2021, 30% of households in the 15% most deprived areas were fuel poor compared with 18% elsewhere¹⁴; by 2022 the gap had widened to 42% against 29%¹³. Families have a lower rate of fuel poverty, 27% in 2022, than older households, at 36%¹³. The relationship with income poverty is close but not identical: in 2022, 95% of income poor households were fuel poor, and 67% of fuel poor households were also income poor, whilst the other 33% would not be considered income poor¹³. In 2021 the majority of fuel poor households, 378,000, were also in income poverty¹⁴. Those figures are the clearest illustration of why fuel poverty is treated as a distinct problem: a household can be pushed over the line by an inefficient home or an expensive heating fuel even on an income that is not, by the ordinary definition, poor.

Scotland's definition compared with elsewhere in the UK

Scotland's definition is its own. It is set out in section 3 of the Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act, with the Minimum Income Standard test and the adjusted net income after housing costs as its core mechanics⁶. The definition is slightly different in Scotland than in England and Wales: a House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee report noted, for example, that Scotland uses a higher temperature standard in its heating regime²³. The higher standard means a Scottish home needs more heat to count as satisfactorily warm, which in turn raises the fuel costs counted against the threshold.

The 10%-of-income threshold itself has historically been shared with Wales: Ofgem's 2018 vulnerability report described a household as in fuel poverty if it would need to spend more than 10% of its income on fuel, and on that basis reported 23% of Welsh households, 291,000, and 26.5% of Scottish households, 649,000, in fuel poverty²⁴. Wales has since moved to modelled estimates, with the Welsh Government releasing detailed modelled estimates for Wales as at October 2024 in October 2025⁶. England uses a different definition again, based on required fuel costs and income rather than a simple percentage, which is why rates cannot be compared directly across the border. Our pages on fuel poverty in Wales and fuel poverty in Northern Ireland cover those nations' own measures, and which energy powers are devolved and which are reserved explains why each nation defines and tackles the problem separately.

The rural uplift is a distinctly Scottish feature. The additional amount added for households in remote rural, remote small town and island areas⁸ acknowledges that the fuel costs needed to reach the same heating regime are higher there, whether because of oil and solid fuel purchasing, distribution costs or the housing stock itself.

Legal targets and the bodies that monitor progress

The Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act 2019 sets statutory targets to be achieved by 2040: no more than 5% of households in Scotland in fuel poverty, and no more than 1% in extreme fuel poverty²⁵. The Act also requires that by 2040, as far as reasonably possible, no household in Scotland is in fuel poverty¹⁸. A third target covers depth as well as breadth: the median fuel poverty gap of households in fuel poverty must be no more than £250 in 2015 prices before adding inflation⁵. Edinburgh's local heat and energy efficiency strategy summarises the same three targets in its statutory form⁷.

Progress is reported through the Scottish House Condition Survey, whose annual key findings provide the official rate, and through the Scottish Government's periodic reporting duties under the Act, most recently the tackling fuel poverty periodic report covering 2021 to 2024¹⁶. The Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel, established under the legislation, has published its own assessments of progress, including its initial response to the Scottish Budget 2024 to 2025, in which it described the Fuel Insecurity Fund as providing vital support for fuel poor people, who are amongst the most vulnerable living in Scotland²⁶.

The distance between the current position and the targets is stark. Against a modelled rate of 32% of households for late 2026², the 2040 target of no more than 5%²⁵ requires the rate to fall by more than four fifths, and the extreme fuel poverty target of 1% requires a fall from a modelled 16%³. The median fuel poverty gap target of £250 in 2015 prices⁵ compares with a measured actual median gap of £690 in 2021¹⁴, and with a modelled gap of around £2,000 per year for fuel poor households using electricity as their primary heating fuel³.

The schemes delivering the goal

Scotland's fuel poverty strategy is delivered through a set of national programmes, with the Scottish House Condition Survey and the price cap modelling providing the evidence base.

Warmer Homes Scotland is the national retrofit scheme. It helps households in, or at risk of, fuel poverty improve their heating and energy efficiency²⁷. Originally launched in September 2015, it was relaunched in 2023 with increased funding for clean heating systems²⁸. Where technically suitable, households are offered clean heating systems first; if this would increase energy bills, an emission-producing system may be provided instead, and most homes also get energy-saving upgrades no matter which heating system is installed²⁷. The scheme has a strong focus on heating and insulation measures, and renewable and micro-generation measures have been made available, including ground source heat pumps, micro-wind, micro-hydro and micro-CHP systems²⁸. It is available to owner-occupiers and some private rented sector tenants who are living in or at risk of fuel poverty and who meet the qualifying eligibility criteria²⁸. By October 2025 it had helped more than 46,000 households throughout Scotland, with around 21,000 households referred through to the fuel poverty support programme since the new scheme launched in October 2023²⁹.

Home Energy Scotland is the advice service, funded by the Scottish Government, providing free and impartial advice and support to help households stay warm⁷. It offers free advice on improving the energy efficiency of the home, and its Funding Finder lets households search for funding and support on improving energy efficiency, reducing energy bills and making the home warmer³⁰. Advisers can be called free on 0808 808 2282, with lines open Monday to Friday 8am to 8pm and 9am to 5pm on Saturdays³¹. Calls are free from landlines and most mobile networks³².

Alongside these sit area-based delivery through HEEPS Area Based Schemes, grant support through the Home Energy Scotland grant and loan, and income support through the Winter Heating Payment, the Pension Age Winter Heating Payment and the Warm Home Discount. The Fuel Insecurity Fund, assessed by the Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel, has provided support targeted at fuel poor households²⁶.

Fuel poverty and its impact on energy self reliance

Fuel poverty is, at root, a measure of dependence. A household is counted as fuel poor when the price it must pay for energy, set by markets and suppliers outside its control, claims a share of income that leaves the household unable to live adequately¹. The four drivers make the dependence explicit: income, fuel prices, the efficiency of the dwelling and the fuel the household must burn are, for most households, all things decided elsewhere¹⁷.

The Scottish definition is sensitive to fuel prices¹⁵, which means a household can cross the fuel poverty line without anything in its own home changing. A rise in the price cap moves the measured rate from 29% to 31% to 32% across modelled quarters³. No amount of careful budgeting by the household alters that exposure while the home's heat depends entirely on purchased fuel.

The two routes out, on the evidence the Scottish Government publishes, are the home and the income. Improving the energy efficiency of the dwelling reduces the fuel needed to reach the statutory heating regime, which is why Warmer Homes Scotland leads with insulation and heating measures²⁸, and why the modelling shows that even removing levies from bills, without touching the homes themselves, moves the rate by only around 2.5 percentage points³. Households that generate some of their own energy, or that heat with systems whose running costs are less exposed to the price cap, reduce the share of income that energy prices can claim. Our pages on solar, batteries and microgeneration uptake by UK nation and how Scottish homes are heated set out where that stands.

The limits are equally plain. A household lifted out of fuel poverty by a grant or a payment is still dependent on the scheme continuing, on the supplier's prices and on the grid or fuel delivery that reaches it. The 2040 targets²⁵ are a commitment to narrow that dependence, not to remove it: even at the target rate, up to 5% of households would remain fuel poor, and the definition itself assumes the household buys its fuel rather than producing it. Energy independence for a Scottish home means shrinking the claim that external energy prices can make on the household's income, and the fuel poverty statistics are the clearest measure of how large that claim currently is.