Scottish Government statistics published on 30 May 2023 project that 920,000 households in Scotland, 37 per cent of all households, will be in fuel poverty from April 2023. The projection applies the price cap for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit set at £2,500 under the Energy Price Guarantee and the removal of the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme1.
The same publication reports that 495,000 households, 19.6 per cent of all households, were estimated to be in fuel poverty in 2021, of which 241,000, or 9.5 per cent, were in extreme fuel poverty1. The actual median fuel poverty gap for fuel poor households was £690, or £620 adjusted for 2015 prices1. The 2021 estimates pre-date the large increases in energy prices that occurred in 2022, and the publication states they are not comparable with earlier survey waves because of changes to the mode of approach and data collection in 2021 and bias in the 2021 sample1.
Rates varied by tenure, heating fuel, payment method, income and energy efficiency. Social sector households had a fuel poverty rate of 34 per cent against 15 per cent in the private sector, and extreme fuel poverty rates of 15 per cent and 8 per cent respectively1. Households using electricity as their primary heating fuel had a rate of 41 per cent, against 16 per cent for gas, 23 per cent for oil and 22 per cent for other fuel types1. Households with a pre-payment meter had a rate of 33 per cent against 17 per cent for those without1. Seventy-nine per cent of households with an annual income below £15,000 were fuel poor, against 20 per cent of those earning between £15,000 and £24,999 and 1 per cent of those earning between £35,000 and £44,9991. Sixteen per cent of dwellings rated EPC band C or better were fuel poor, against 43 per cent in bands F or G1.
The definition in use in Scotland comes from the Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act 2019, which received Royal Assent on 18th July 2019, with the associated enhanced heating regulations coming into force on the 26th February 20201. A household is in fuel poverty if maintaining a satisfactory heating regime would cost more than 10 per cent of adjusted net income after housing costs, and if remaining income after fuel, care or disability benefits and childcare costs is insufficient for an acceptable standard of living; extreme fuel poverty uses a 20 per cent threshold1. The publication states these are the first estimates fully compatible with all elements of the new definition1.
"From April 2023 with the price cap for the typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit set at £2,500 under the Energy Price Guarantee and removal of the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme we estimate that there will be 920,000 fuel poor households (37% of all households)"
| Measure | 2021 estimate | April 2023 projection |
|---|---|---|
| Fuel poor households | 495,000 (19.6%) | 920,000 (37%) |
| Extreme fuel poverty | 241,000 (9.5%) | Not reported |
| Median fuel poverty gap | £690 (£620 at 2015 prices) | Not reported |
Why it matters for households
The projection turns on two things a household bill reflects directly: the level of the price cap and whether the £400 support payment is still being paid. The 2021 survey figures describe the position before the 2022 price increases, so the gap between 19.6 per cent and 37 per cent is largely the effect of prices and the withdrawal of support rather than a change in homes. For a household, fuel poverty status under the Scottish definition depends on income after housing costs, the cost of a satisfactory heating regime and, for some households, enhanced heating temperatures and hours because of age, illness, disability or a child aged five or under1. The survey also shows that fuel poverty is not the same as income poverty: 76 per cent of fuel poor households were also income poor in 2021, while 24 per cent were not1. Energy efficiency tracks the rate closely, with 43 per cent of the least efficient dwellings fuel poor against 16 per cent of the most efficient1.
What happens next
The 2040 targets set by the 2019 Act are no more than 5 per cent of households in fuel poverty, no more than 1 per cent in extreme fuel poverty, and a median fuel poverty gap of no more than £250 at 2015 prices1. No further dated steps are reported in the publication.