In November 2022 the Scottish Government published cross-government analysis drawing on a wide range of sources to give an overview of emerging evidence on the cost of living crisis1. The scenario modelling estimated that the price cap rising to £2,500 for a typical household in October 2022 would leave around 860,000 households in Scotland, or 35 per cent, in fuel poverty, of which 600,000, or 24 per cent, would be in extreme fuel poverty1.
That compares with the Scottish Government's official estimate of 613,000 households, 25 per cent, in fuel poverty in 2019, and 311,000, 12 per cent, in extreme fuel poverty1. The near doubling in the modelled extreme fuel poverty figure means those households would be spending more than 20 per cent of household income to heat their homes to an adequate standard1.
The figures appear in Consumer Scotland's Energy Affordability Tracker, published on 14 November 2022, which sets the analysis in the wider policy context1. The tracker notes that the November 2022 Autumn Statement confirmed a revised Energy Price Guarantee set at a higher level of £3,000 for the average household, against £2,500 at the time, with further support more narrowly targeted to fewer households1. Additional cost of living payments announced for 2023 included £900 to households on means-tested benefits, £300 to pensioner households and £150 for individuals on disability benefits1.
Consumer Scotland also flagged groups it had identified as facing particular difficulty, including prepayment meter consumers, who it said may pay £150 per month more than a typical direct debit customer over the same period because direct debit payments are smoothed across the year1. Households needing an enhanced heating regime, such as people with disabilities or other medical or health conditions, may have higher than typical demand and pay more for the energy they need1. Its analysis of the Office for National Statistics Living Costs and Food Survey found low-income single adult and single parent households had the highest expenditure on energy as a proportion of total expenditure1.
"In November 2022 the Scottish Government published cross-government analysis of a wide range of sources to provide an overview of emerging evidence on the cost of living crisis."
The tracker also records that in September 2022 the Scottish Government launched a dedicated website detailing help that might be available to the public during the cost of living crisis1. Consumer Scotland's own survey work, carried out by YouGov with 1,586 adults in Scotland, straddled the end of the last Energy Price Cap and the introduction of the Energy Price Guarantee on 1 October 20221.
Why it matters for households
The modelled 35 per cent rate is a scenario estimate for a £2,500 price cap, not a measured count of households in fuel poverty, and the underlying measurement of fuel poverty differs between the nations of the UK. What the analysis indicates is that a much larger share of Scottish households than in 2019 would need to spend a high proportion of income on keeping warm, and that the sharpest change is in the extreme category, where heating costs exceed a fifth of household income1.
For a household, the practical consequences turn on how energy is paid for and how much is needed. Prepayment customers face winter bills that are not smoothed across the year, and the tracker puts the gap with a typical direct debit customer at up to £150 a month over the same period1. Homes needing an enhanced heating regime carry higher demand, so the same price cap translates into a larger bill1. The flat-rate discount delivered through the Energy Bill Support Scheme reduced expenditure proportionally more for lower-income households, which tend to spend less on energy in cash terms1. Support routes available in Scotland, including the Scottish Government's cost of living website, are set out in help with energy bills and debt in Scotland.
What happens next
The Energy Price Guarantee was due to expire in April 2023 and be replaced by a revised guarantee running until April 2024, set at £3,000 for the average household under the Autumn Statement, with support more narrowly targeted1. Cost of living payments of £900, £300 and £150 were to be introduced in 2023 for the groups listed above1. Consumer Scotland said successive waves of its tracker would help identify issues and trends, and that it would continue to monitor awareness of available support schemes1.