Fuel Poverty in Northern Ireland: Rate, Measurement and Strategy

Around a quarter of households in Northern Ireland are counted as fuel poor. The most recent published estimate puts the figure at 24% of all households, and that estimate is for 2021¹. Fuel poverty there is measured with the 10% indicator: a household is fuel poor if the fuel costs required to maintain a satisfactory heating regime exceed 10% of household income³. A satisfactory regime means 21 degrees Celsius in the main living room and 18 degrees Celsius in other occupied rooms².

The 2021 estimate is now the newest official one. Estimates for Northern Ireland have not been published for 2022 or later years¹, which means the published rate predates the 2022 energy price shock and the oil price movements since. A building regulations consultation in October 2023 cited 247,000 households in fuel poverty, a rate of 34%⁴. In April 2026 the Department for Communities restated 24% of households as living in fuel poverty before the recent surge in oil prices⁵.

Fuel poverty in Northern Ireland is shaped by a distinctive heating mix. At Census 2021, 63% of households used heating oil and 33% mains gas². Oil is bought in bulk, unregulated by a price cap and delivered by road, so households carry the full swing of the market and must find several hundred pounds at a time. That is the central fact behind both the rate and the schemes built to answer it: the oil question in Northern Ireland heating is inseparable from the fuel poverty question.

The Affordable Warmth Scheme and what its wind-down means

The Affordable Warmth Scheme has been the main fuel poverty energy efficiency scheme in Northern Ireland since September 2014⁹. In September 2023 the Department for Communities announced a two-year extension so that the scheme would continue until March 2026¹⁰. A House of Commons briefing records it as currently planned to run to 2026¹¹. A departmental screening document in May 2026 refers to the current Affordable Warmth Scheme as having business case approval until March 2028, and describes a Warm Healthy Homes Fund as replacing it¹². Those dates are not consistent with each other, and a household planning work should treat the closing date as unsettled rather than fixed.

For anyone with a live interest, the entry point has not changed: contact the NI Energy Advice Service. If the service establishes that the household meets the entry requirements, an application form is sent out, to be completed and returned with supporting documents to the local Grant Office¹³. That route also covers referral to whatever successor arrangement applies, since the advice service makes referrals to energy grants and other sources of help¹⁴.

The direction of travel matters for household independence. A grant scheme that fits insulation or a replacement boiler reduces the amount of fuel a home needs permanently. A cash payment towards a bill does not. Northern Ireland's current position leans on the second while the first is between schemes. The successor is the Warm Homes, Healthy Futures work and the wider fuel poverty strategy.

Measurement: the 10% indicator, not the low income low energy efficiency measure

Northern Ireland uses the 10% indicator, applied by the Northern Ireland Housing Executive: a household is fuel poor if fuel costs required to maintain a satisfactory heating regime are greater than 10% of household income³. The Department for Communities states the rule as needing to pay more than 10% of full household income to maintain a satisfactory heating regime at an affordable cost⁶. This was originally the common definition across Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: a household was fuel poor if it would have to spend more than 10% of its income to keep its home at a reasonable temperature¹⁵.

Three features of the measure are worth understanding before reading any rate:

• It is a modelled requirement, not observed spending. A household that keeps the heating off to save money is still fuel poor if the modelled cost of proper heating would exceed the threshold.
• The threshold rests on full household income, so a change to how income is treated moves the rate without anything changing in the homes themselves.
• It is sensitive to fuel prices. Because it divides a modelled fuel bill by income, a price spike pushes large numbers of households across the line in a single year, which is why the pre-2022 and post-2022 figures diverge so sharply.

The 10% approach differs from the low income low energy efficiency framing used elsewhere in the UK, and it means Northern Ireland's rate is not directly comparable with an English figure. It is closer in construction to the Welsh measure, which also asks whether a household needs to spend more than 10% of income on all household fuel use to maintain a satisfactory heating regime³, and differs from the Scottish definition. Why the four nations count differently, and why that matters for grants, is covered in why grants differ by nation.

From 34% to 24%: reading the published figures

The spread here is real and unresolved. The 18% figure describes the position before the October 2021 cap increase¹⁶; the 24% figure is the modelled estimate for 2021 itself²; the 34% figure appeared in an October 2023 consultation alongside a count of 247,000 households⁴. A consultation opened by the Department for Communities describes nearly a quarter of the population as experiencing challenges in heating their homes adequately¹⁸, which sits with the 24% figure rather than the 34% one.

The practical consequence is that no one currently knows the rate. Estimates for Northern Ireland have not been published for 2022 or later years¹, so the whole period of high energy prices is outside the official series. One of the changes welcomed in the draft strategy is the decision to model extreme and severe fuel poverty annually, which Energy Saving Trust describes as a welcome improvement allowing closer monitoring¹⁹. Until that happens, the gap between a 2021 estimate and 2026 conditions is filled by modelling rather than measurement. The National Energy Action Northern Ireland manifesto put the position plainly in June 2024:

What drives the rate: oil, off-gas and the housing stock

The single largest structural driver is the heating mix. With 63% of households on heating oil and 33% on mains gas at Census 2021², most homes in Northern Ireland buy their heat in a market with no price cap and no supplier-level social tariff mechanism. Oil is bought in minimum deliveries, which turns a running cost into a lump-sum cost, and a household without the cash for a fill has no partial substitute beyond electric heaters. That is a different kind of exposure from a metered gas bill and it is why the emergency response has taken the form of a voucher usable with oil suppliers rather than a credit to an energy account.

Building fabric is the second driver. The Affordable Warmth Scheme's priority list is itself a description of the stock's weaknesses: loft insulation to 300mm, roof, loft and eaves ventilation, hot water cylinder jackets, cavity wall insulation where suitable, draught proofing, and removal and replacement of ineffective cavity wall insulation¹³. Below that sit heating replacement, single glazing and solid wall insulation. Homes of solid wall construction were treated as a distinct and more expensive problem, attracting grant aid up to 10,000 pounds rather than the standard maximum²¹. In Wales, where comparable modelling exists, households in dwellings with solid walls were more likely to be fuel poor, at 32%³. The condition of the stock is covered further in Northern Ireland's housing stock and EPC ratings.

The third driver is scheme design. The Department for Communities has acknowledged that the Affordable Warmth Scheme relied on outdated data which set the income threshold of 23,000 pounds, and that this was considered unsuitable⁶. Energy Saving Trust made the same point, describing the threshold as now unsuitably low¹⁹. A threshold fixed years ago against incomes and prices that have since moved excludes households the measure itself would count as fuel poor.

Finally, there is no Warm Home Discount in Northern Ireland. Ofgem states that the Warm Home Discount Scheme does not run there, and points to the Affordable Warmth Scheme instead²². The Warm Home Discount in Scotland page sets out how that scheme operates where it does apply.

Affordable Warmth Scheme: grants, eligibility and the process it used

The scheme addresses the effects of fuel poverty and energy inefficiency and is directed at low-income households²³. It replaced the Warm Homes Scheme²⁴. It is funded by the Department for Communities and delivered in partnership with the Housing Executive, local councils and a range of local installers²⁵; Belfast City Council, for example, is a partner with the Department and the Housing Executive²⁶. Since September 2014 it has installed more than 56,000 energy efficiency measures in over 31,000 low-income households⁶. An earlier statement, from June 2021, recorded over 85 million pounds invested to improve energy efficiency for more than 19,500 low-income households²⁵.

Who qualified

• Live in Northern Ireland, and own and occupy the property as a main home, or hold a life interest in it, or rent from a private landlord¹³
• Total annual gross income of less than 23,000 pounds¹³
• Not a Housing Executive or housing association tenant: the scheme is not available for tenants living in social housing¹³
• The property must not be a holiday home, bed and breakfast or commercial establishment¹³
• Private tenants need the landlord's consent for work to take place¹³

What was paid

The measures, in priority order

1. Insulation, ventilation and draught-proofing: loft insulation to 300mm, roof, loft and eaves ventilation, a hot water cylinder jacket, cavity wall insulation where suitable, draught proofing of doors and windows, and removal and replacement of ineffective cavity wall insulation¹³.
2. Heating: replacing solid fuel, LPG or Economy 7 with natural gas or oil central heating; converting Economy 7 to a high efficiency electrical storage system only where gas and oil are not available; boiler replacement or system upgrade¹³.
3. Windows: replacing single glazed windows¹³.
4. Solid wall measures: solid wall insulation, detached properties only¹³.

Boiler replacement applied where a boiler was at least 15 years old and the householder was over 65, or had a child in receipt of Child Benefit or Kinship payments, or received Disability Living Allowance, Personal Independence Payment, Attendance Allowance or Industrial Injuries Benefit¹³. The boiler replacement scheme that ran separately is now closed.

Process points that carry real consequences: a technical assessment may take up to 60 minutes; the approval pack confirms how much grant aid is payable, that work may start, which measures are to be carried out and in what order of priority, and the date by which work must be completed, usually within three months of approval¹³. Supporting documents must prove ownership or private tenancy and main residence, and income evidence means wage slips, benefits award letters or bank statements¹³.

Fuel poor households in privately rented or owner-occupied properties can access support through the scheme, delivered by the Housing Executive working with local councils²⁷. Fuller detail sits on the Affordable Warmth Scheme page.

NISEP: an 8 million pound fund raised from electricity customers

The Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme is an 8 million pound fund collected from both domestic and commercial electricity customers through a public service obligation²¹. It is an energy efficiency programme for domestic and non-domestic customers²⁹ and is administered by Energy Saving Trust on behalf of the Utility Regulator²¹. Its stated aim is to reduce carbon emissions²⁸.

Because the money is raised through a levy on electricity bills, NISEP is not grant funding in the ordinary sense: electricity customers pay for it collectively, including households that never receive a measure. What it buys is fully funded or part-funded energy efficient home improvements, with what is available varying by location, tenure and income³¹.

Schemes are published as a list each year, and applying means identifying the scheme wanted, checking eligibility and area availability, then contacting the relevant scheme manager on the telephone number or email address published against it³³. Income criteria vary by scheme: the Keep Warm Scheme in the 2026/2027 list, for instance, sets a single person household income or pension below 33,000 pounds gross, and a couple, joint or single parent household below 40,000 pounds gross, with Housing Executive leaseholders not eligible³⁴. Some listed schemes are closed, and the published list marks them as such³⁰.

NISEP's future is now tied to the successor arrangements. On 2 April 2026 the Utility Regulator announced an extension running from 1 April 2027 to 31 March 2029, closable after the first year if the Department for the Economy's successor scheme is fully developed; if that successor is not operational, NISEP will continue for the second year, 2028/2029³⁵. The 2024/2025 annual report was published on 3 July 2026²⁹. More detail is on the NISEP page.

The Home Heating Oil Support Scheme: a £100 voucher for around 340,000 households

The Home Heating Oil Support Scheme was created to help households in Northern Ireland with the cost of home heating oil, and eligible households can apply for a 100 pound voucher for use with oil suppliers in Northern Ireland⁷. It rests on a 36.4 million pound support package agreed by the Executive, announced on 16 April 2026⁵. The Department for Communities administers it³⁶.

Eligibility, as published by the Department, covers households that use oil as their primary source of heating, are resident in Northern Ireland, and in either of the qualifying months are either in receipt of a qualifying benefit, or are a single person or couple, including pensioners, with an annual income of less than 30,000 pounds net of allowable deductions⁷. Households in receipt of disability benefits were named as a qualifying group when the package was agreed⁵.

Estimates of coverage were reported as more than 300,000 households in July 2026 and up to 340,000 in April 2026³⁸; the Department's own figure on going live was around 340,000³⁷. Earlier in 2026 the opening date had not been announced³⁸, and one independent summary in August 2026 still described the scheme as expected to open later in 2026³⁶.

Set against the scale of the problem, 100 pounds is a contribution to one delivery rather than a structural fix. For comparison, in December 2022 all households in Northern Ireland received a single one-off 600 pound payment towards bills under the Energy Bills Support Scheme⁴⁰. A voucher leaves the household's fuel requirement, its insulation and its boiler exactly where they were. The Home Heating Oil Scheme page sets out the mechanics in full.

The draft Fuel Poverty Strategy and what comes next

Northern Ireland's last Fuel Poverty Strategy was published in 2011¹⁸. The Department for Communities has consulted on a long-term strategy for tackling fuel poverty in Northern Ireland, together with proposals for a new fuel poverty energy efficiency scheme¹⁸. Energy Saving Trust agrees with the ten-year timeframe proposed for the strategy, 2025 to 2035¹⁹. A related Warm Healthy Homes Strategy for 2026 to 2036 is intended to help address fuel poverty², and the Warm Healthy Homes Fund is the proposed replacement for the Affordable Warmth Scheme¹².

The consultation responses converge on one criticism. National Energy Action Northern Ireland has long advocated for an updated strategy, citing a clear need for a strategic, cross-departmental and cross-sectoral approach to Northern Ireland's fuel poverty crisis⁴¹. Its response welcomes the draft strategy's key objectives, proposed outcomes and actions, but is disappointed at the lack of specific, measurable targets, particularly a clear target for reducing fuel poverty⁴¹. Energy Saving Trust makes the same point: it would like to see the final strategy include targets for reducing fuel poverty¹⁹. NEA NI also urges that the finalised strategy be backed by comprehensive funding and a detailed action plan for effective implementation⁴¹.

That gap matters for households rather than only for policy watchers. Without a target there is no date by which a home currently in fuel poverty can expect to be out of it, and without a funded action plan there is no committed volume of insulation or heating replacement. The improvements that are conceded, notably annual modelling of extreme and severe fuel poverty¹⁹, improve the measurement of the problem rather than the fabric of the homes.

Where households stand on independence

The honest position is that Northern Ireland's fuel poverty response currently reduces exposure to price rather than dependence on fuel. The 100 pound voucher is spent with an oil supplier and is gone. NISEP is funded by a levy the same households pay through their electricity bills. The Affordable Warmth Scheme, the one instrument that permanently cut how much fuel a home needs, is winding towards replacement with its income threshold acknowledged as outdated and its successor not yet running at scale.

What remains dependent, therefore: an unregulated oil market and road deliveries for 63% of households²; a levy-funded programme whose continuation past 2029 depends on a Department for the Economy scheme still in development³⁵; a grant route whose closing date the official documents state variously as March 2026 and March 2028¹⁰; and a strategy without a reduction target⁴¹. What a household can control is the fabric work itself, and the entry point for finding funding for that is the NI Energy Advice Service on 0800 111 4455, open 9am to 5pm Monday to Friday, or nienergyadvice@nihe.gov.uk³⁴. Households in Northern Ireland may qualify for financial support towards the cost of loft and cavity wall insulation⁴². How the nations compare on all of this is set out across the four nations guide.