Fuel Poverty in Northern Ireland: Rate, Measurement and Strategy

Fuel poverty in Northern Ireland is measured against a simple line: a household is fuel poor if it would need to spend more than 10% of its full household income on fuel to keep warm properly¹. On that measure, the most recent official estimate puts 24% of households in fuel poverty, a figure that dates from 2021². A later assessment prepared for a building regulations consultation put the number far higher, estimating 247,000 households in fuel poverty, a rate of 34%³. The two figures describe the same problem at different moments and on different data, and the gap between them is part of this story.

The causes are unusually concentrated. Most homes in Northern Ireland have no mains gas connection and heat with oil instead, which ties household budgets to a volatile market the Executive does not control. The main scheme for making those homes cheaper to heat, the Affordable Warmth Scheme, has closed, and a replacement is still being designed. This page sets out the rate, how it is measured, what drove it, what each scheme offered, and where the strategy goes from here.

Ending the Affordable Warmth Scheme and its implications

The Affordable Warmth Scheme was Northern Ireland's main grant programme for making low-income homes warmer, and its closure is the single biggest change in the landscape. The scheme was extended for a further two years in 2023, meaning it would continue until March 2026⁷, and a UK Parliament research briefing likewise recorded that it was planned to run to 2026⁸. That end point has now passed, and no direct replacement is yet in place.

The Department for Communities has been candid about why the scheme ended rather than simply continuing. In a 2026 consultation it stated that the scheme relied on outdated data which set the income threshold of £23,000, and that the threshold was considered no longer fit for purpose¹. The same document records the scheme's scale: introduced in September 2014, it installed more than 56,000 energy efficiency measures in over 31,000 low-income households¹.

The Department has consulted on proposals for a new fuel poverty energy efficiency scheme to succeed it⁹, so the closure is a gap between programmes rather than a withdrawal from the policy. In the meantime, households that would previously have applied to Affordable Warmth are left with the remaining routes described later on this page: NISEP schemes, the Home Heating Oil Support Scheme, and the advice and referral service run by the Housing Executive. The scheme itself replaced an earlier programme, the Warm Homes Scheme¹⁰, and the pattern of one scheme closing before the next is fully in place is a recurring one in Northern Ireland.

Why the 10% measure is used instead of low income low energy efficiency

Northern Ireland measures fuel poverty differently from England, and the difference matters when comparing rates across the UK. Fuel poverty in Northern Ireland is measured using the 10% indicator, where a household is fuel poor if the fuel costs required to maintain a satisfactory heating regime are greater than 10% of household income¹². England abandoned this indicator in favour of a low income, low energy efficiency measure, which is why headline rates are not directly comparable between the two nations.

The 10% indicator was the original UK-wide definition: a household was defined as being in fuel poverty if it would have to spend more than 10% of its income to keep its home at a reasonable temperature¹³. Scotland and Wales have since moved to their own definitions, with Wales using a 10% test applied to income including housing-related benefits and net of council tax¹². Northern Ireland has kept the older form of the test.

What counts as a satisfactory heating regime is specified precisely. A household is fuel poor if, to maintain a satisfactory level of heating, 21°C in the main living room and 18°C in other occupied rooms, it is required to spend in excess of 10% of its household income on all fuel use⁴. Two features of this definition deserve attention. It looks at what a household would need to spend, not what it actually spends, so a family rationing heating to keep bills down is still counted if the required spend breaches the threshold. And it counts all fuel use, not just heating, so electricity for lights and appliances counts towards the 10%.

How the published figures show a fall from 34% to 24%

The published rate depends heavily on when it was measured. The latest official fuel poverty estimates for Northern Ireland are for 2021, when an estimated 24% of all households were defined as fuel poor⁴. A UK Parliament research briefing in 2025 repeated that 24% figure for Northern Ireland², and a 2026 ministerial press release referred to 24% of households already living in fuel poverty before the recent surge in oil prices¹⁴.

Against that, the discussion document prepared for the 2023 building regulations consultation estimated 247,000 households in fuel poverty, which it described as a fuel poverty rate of 34%³. The two figures differ, and they should not be smoothed together: the 24% figure is the last official statistical estimate, from 2021, while the 34% figure is an estimate prepared for a different purpose on different assumptions. Estimates for Northern Ireland have not been published for 2022 or later years², which means the official statistics predate the energy price surge of 2022 and 2023 and almost certainly understate the position now.

The practical reading for a household is that roughly a quarter of homes were already unable to heat affordably before prices rose, and the more recent, non-official estimate puts it at around a third. The Department for Communities' own consultation speaks of nearly a quarter of the population experiencing challenges in heating their homes adequately⁹. Whichever figure is used, the direction since 2021 has been worsening, and the absence of newer official statistics is itself part of the problem: policy is being designed against dated evidence, which is one of the criticisms the Department has levelled at its own scheme's income threshold¹.

Oil heating, off-gas homes and housing stock as causes

The defining feature of Northern Ireland's housing stock is how it heats. At Census 2021, 63% of households used heating oil and 33% mains gas⁴. That is close to a reversal of the position in Great Britain, where mains gas dominates. Oil is bought in bulk, typically in deliveries of hundreds of litres paid for upfront, which hits low-income households hardest: a household that cannot afford a full delivery in autumn pays a higher price per litre for small top-ups through winter. The National Energy Action manifesto for homes in Northern Ireland put the position bluntly: "Northern Ireland is in the midst of a Fuel Poverty crisis."¹⁵

The housing stock compounds the fuel. Solid wall homes are harder and more expensive to insulate than cavity wall properties, and the effect shows up wherever it is measured: in Wales, households in dwellings with solid walls were more likely to be fuel poor, at 32%, than those in dwellings with cavity walls¹². Northern Ireland has a high proportion of older, solid wall housing, and the Affordable Warmth Scheme treated solid wall insulation as a distinct, higher-cost category with its own grant ceiling of £10,000⁵. Households may qualify for financial support towards the cost of loft and cavity wall insulation¹⁶, but the harder properties cost more to treat and the grant limits bite sooner.

The dependence on oil also means the Executive's levers are limited. Oil prices are set internationally, the Warm Home Discount does not run in Northern Ireland¹⁷, and the main response has been one-off payments such as the £600 Energy Bills Support Scheme payment in 2022¹⁸ and the £100 oil voucher in 2026. Each of these treats the symptom, the price of a delivery, rather than the cause, a housing stock that needs too much oil to heat.

Grants, eligibility and how the Affordable Warmth Scheme worked

While it operated, the Affordable Warmth Scheme offered owner occupiers and private renters up to £7,500 for energy efficiency upgrades⁵. The full conditions were set out in the scheme rules¹¹, and they are worth recording because the successor scheme is likely to inherit much of the structure.

Eligibility rested on three legs:

• Income: a total annual gross income of less than £23,000⁵
• Occupancy: living in Northern Ireland, owning and occupying the property as your main home, or renting from a private landlord¹¹
• Exclusions: no social housing tenancy, since Housing Executive and housing association tenants were not eligible, and the property must not be a holiday home, bed and breakfast or commercial establishment¹¹

The work itself was organised in priorities. Priority 1 covered insulation, ventilation and draught-proofing, including loft insulation topped up to 300mm, cavity wall insulation where suitable, and a hot water cylinder jacket. Priority 2 covered heating: replacing solid fuel, LPG or Economy 7 with natural gas or oil central heating, or converting Economy 7 to a high-efficiency electrical storage system where gas and oil were unavailable. Boiler replacement applied where a boiler was at least 15 years old and the householder was over 65, had a child in receipt of Child Benefit or Kinship payments, or received disability or attendance benefits. Priority 3 was window replacement and Priority 4 was solid wall insulation for detached properties only¹¹.

The process had firm rules. An application began with the NI Energy Advice Service, which sent a form if the household met the entry requirements; the form was returned with documents proving ownership or tenancy, occupation as a main residence, and income through wage slips, benefit award letters or bank statements. A technical assessment of up to 60 minutes followed, then written approval confirming the grant amount, the measures and the completion deadline. Work could not start before written permission, and no work started earlier would be paid for; completion was usually expected within three months of approval. The householder employed the contractor directly, gas boiler work required a Gas Safe registered engineer, and insulation required a minimum 25-year guarantee¹¹.

The scheme was funded by the Department for Communities and delivered in partnership with the Housing Executive, local councils and a range of local installers¹⁹. An earlier milestone, announced in 2021, recorded over £85 million invested to improve energy efficiency for more than 19,500 low-income households²⁰, a figure the 2026 consultation has since updated to over 31,000 households and 56,000 measures¹.

An 8 million pound NISEP fund paid for by electricity customers

Alongside the grant scheme, Northern Ireland has a standing energy efficiency programme funded through bills. The Northern Ireland Sustainable Energy Programme, NISEP, is an £8 million fund collected from both domestic and non-domestic customers⁵. It is an energy efficiency programme for domestic and non-domestic customers²¹, administered by Energy Saving Trust on behalf of the Utility Regulator²².

NISEP operates on an annual cycle. The 2024 to 2025 programme year ran from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025, or until funds were exhausted²², and the Utility Regulator has approved the schemes for 2026/2027²³. The Utility Regulator publishes an annual report on the programme, with the 2024 to 2025 report published in July 2026²¹. Because the fund is limited and runs out, applying early in the programme year matters.

Applying works scheme by scheme rather than through a single central form:

1. Identify the scheme you want to apply for from the published list of schemes²⁴
2. Check that you are eligible for funding and that the scheme is available in your area
3. Contact the relevant scheme manager via the telephone number or email address provided²⁴

Schemes vary by location and licence area, so a scheme open in one part of Northern Ireland may not run in another²². The current list also carries other schemes alongside NISEP, including the Keep Warm Scheme, which is open to a single person household with income or pension less than £33,000 gross, or a couple or single parent family with income or pension less than £40,000 gross²⁵. NISEP is the one part of the support landscape that is not a government grant at risk of closure: it is a standing obligation on energy suppliers, though its scale, £8 million against a fuel poverty problem affecting hundreds of thousands of households, is modest.

£100 vouchers for some 340,000 homes under the Home Heating Oil Support Scheme

The most recent addition to the support landscape targets the oil problem directly. The Home Heating Oil Support Scheme was created to help households in Northern Ireland with the cost of home heating oil, and eligible households can apply for a £100 voucher for use with oil suppliers in Northern Ireland²⁶. Once activated, the voucher can be used to purchase home heating oil with any Northern Ireland oil supplier²⁶.

The scheme is open to households who use oil as their primary source of heating, are resident in Northern Ireland, and, in either of the qualifying months, are in receipt of a qualifying benefit, or are a single person or couple, including pensioners, with an annual income of less than £30,000 net of allowable deductions²⁶. Households in receipt of Disability benefits form a further eligibility group¹⁴. The £30,000 income test is notably higher than the Affordable Warmth Scheme's £23,000 gross threshold, which widens the reach considerably.

The scale is significant. The Executive agreed a £36.4 million support package for home heating oil users¹⁴, and the scheme is expected to support around 340,000 households who use oil as their main source of heating⁶. Applications opened on 9 September 2026⁶, and the scheme went live with a £100 digital pre-paid card rather than a paper voucher²⁷.

A £100 voucher against a bulk oil delivery is a contribution rather than a solution, and it does nothing to reduce how much oil a home needs. Its value to a household is as cash support in a winter of high prices, not as a route out of fuel poverty.

The proposed Fuel Poverty Strategy and future steps

Northern Ireland's last Fuel Poverty Strategy was published in 2011⁹, and the gap since then is one of the longest in the UK. The Department for Communities has now consulted on a long-term strategy for tackling fuel poverty in Northern Ireland, including proposals for its new fuel poverty energy efficiency scheme⁹. The consultation describes nearly a quarter of the population as experiencing challenges in heating their homes adequately⁹.

Alongside the strategy work, the Department has consulted on a Warm Healthy Homes Fund, and the associated documents point towards a Warm Healthy Homes Strategy covering 2026 to 2036, intended to help address fuel poverty⁴. The shape of the successor to Affordable Warmth is therefore being decided in two linked processes: the fuel poverty consultation on the strategy and the new scheme, and the wider healthy homes work on funding.

What is settled, and what is not, can be stated plainly. Settled: the 10% definition remains the measure, the oil voucher scheme is running, and NISEP continues, with schemes approved for 2026/2027²³. Not settled: the replacement grant scheme, its income threshold, and the level of funding behind it. The Department has already signalled that the old £23,000 threshold was outdated¹, so a successor scheme is likely to test income differently, but until the consultation responses are turned into a scheme, nothing is certain. Households needing help now should not wait for the strategy.

Household positions on independence

Fuel poverty in Northern Ireland is, at root, a dependence problem. A household heating with oil depends on a global commodity price, on having the cash upfront for a bulk delivery, and on a supply chain the Executive does not regulate. The Warm Home Discount does not run in Northern Ireland¹⁷, so the automatic bill support that exists in Great Britain is absent, and the support that does exist, the £600 payment of 2022¹⁸, the £100 voucher of 2026²⁶, is discretionary and one-off.

The structural answer is to reduce how much energy the home needs, which is what Affordable Warmth and NISEP were for. With Affordable Warmth closed, the standing routes are NISEP schemes²³, insulation support where households qualify¹⁶, and the advice service. The NI Energy Advice Service offers independent and impartial energy advice to domestic householders in Northern Ireland, plus referrals to energy grants and other sources of help²⁸. It is funded by the Department for Communities and delivered by the Housing Executive²⁹, and can be reached on freephone 0800 111 4455, open 9am to 5pm Monday to Friday, or by email at nienergyadvice@nihe.gov.uk¹¹.

For a household thinking about energy independence, the fuel poverty position sets the context: measures that cut oil use, insulation, a modern boiler, eventually a heat pump on a well-insulated house, are also the measures that cut exposure to oil prices. The schemes that fund them are thinner in Northern Ireland than anywhere else in the UK, and the strategy that would replace the closed scheme is still in draft. Until it lands, the practical position is to use what exists, NISEP, the oil voucher, and the advice service, and to treat the published 24% rate as a floor rather than a current figure.