The Scottish Government published fuel poverty scenario modelling on 2 September 2026 covering the Ofgem price cap period from October to December 2026. The estimates put around 820,000 households in fuel poverty in Scotland, 32 per cent of all households, an increase of around 20,000 households from estimates for July to September 20261.
Around 440,000 households would be in extreme fuel poverty, 17 per cent of all households, also up around 20,000 households on the previous quarter. The modelling states that 53 per cent of all fuel poor households would be in extreme fuel poverty over the period1.
"We estimate that from October to December 2026 there would be around 820,000 fuel poor households in Scotland, 32% of all households."
Rates vary by tenure. The modelling estimates 39 per cent of private rented sector households in fuel poverty, unchanged from July to September 2026, and 55 per cent of social rented sector households, up around 1 percentage point. Among owner occupiers the estimate is 22 per cent, a 1 percentage point increase1.
| Household group | Fuel poverty rate, Oct to Dec 2026 | Change on Jul to Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| All households | 32% (around 820,000) | Up around 20,000 households |
| Social rented sector | 55% | Up around 1 percentage point |
| Private rented sector | 39% | Stable |
| Owner occupied | 22% | Up 1 percentage point |
The figures rest on revised typical domestic consumption values. The October 2026 price cap figures reflect 9,500 kWh of gas and 2,500 kWh of electricity a year for a typical dual fuel household, against 11,500 kWh and 2,700 kWh from October 2023 and 12,000 kWh and 2,900 kWh for earlier price cap figures1. The publication also notes a small revision to the 2023 fuel poverty rate in the 2024 Scottish House Condition Survey, reducing it by less than 0.1 percentage points from 34.0 to 33.9 per cent and by around 2,000 households from 861,000 to 859,000. The extreme fuel poverty rate was unaffected1.
Why it matters for households
Fuel poverty in Scotland is measured against a definition and a statutory target, and the modelling shows the direction of travel under the price cap path rather than a measured outcome. The estimate of 32 per cent is a scenario, not a count of households in difficulty today, and it depends on the consumption values used, which have been lowered for the October 2026 period1.
For a household, the practical meaning sits in the gap between income and the cost of keeping a home adequately warm. The modelling indicates that more than half of fuel poor households would be in extreme fuel poverty, the deepest category, and that the social rented sector carries the highest rate at 55 per cent1. Tenure shapes exposure: owner occupiers have the lowest estimated rate, but it is rising. Households looking at help with energy bills and debt in Scotland are dealing with the same price cap that drives these estimates, and the wider picture of fuel poverty across UK households is measured differently in each nation.
Energy independence at household level turns on how much of a home's heat and power is bought at capped unit rates and how much is reduced by the fabric of the building. The modelling does not report retrofit or insulation effects, and no breakdown of the estimates by energy efficiency band has been published in this release1.
What happens next
The estimates cover the October to December 2026 price cap period. Annex A of the publication, tables 2 to 9, sets out fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty rates and levels by urban and rural classification and by household tenure, and how these have changed over time1. No further dated steps are set out in the findings.