How does fuel poverty differ by heating fuel type in Scotland?

The scale of the problem is large and moving. Official scenario modelling estimates around 800,000 fuel poor households in Scotland, 31% of all households, in January to March 2026³, rising to around 820,000, or 32%, under the October to December 2026 price cap⁴. Around 20% of Scottish households are not connected to the gas network at all⁵, and it is among these homes that the deepest fuel poverty sits.

The definition and the legal targets

Scotland defines fuel poverty in statute. Under the Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act 2019, a household is in fuel poverty if, in order to maintain a satisfactory heating regime, the total fuel costs necessary for the home are more than 10% of the household's adjusted net income after housing costs, and if, after deducting fuel costs, benefits received for a care need or disability and childcare costs, the household's remaining income is insufficient to maintain an acceptable standard of living. Extreme fuel poverty applies the same test with a 20% threshold rather than 10%⁶.

The Act sets statutory targets for reducing fuel poverty⁷. By 2040, no more than 5% of households in Scotland should be in fuel poverty, no more than 1% in extreme fuel poverty, and the median fuel poverty gap should be no more than £250 at 2015 prices, adjusted for changes in the value of money⁸. The Scottish Government describes the ambition as requiring that by 2040, as far as reasonably possible, no household in Scotland is in fuel poverty².

Four drivers determine whether a household crosses the line: household income, the price of fuel required for space and water heating, the energy efficiency of the dwelling, and the fuel the household must use to maintain a satisfactory heating regime³. The fourth driver is why heating fuel type matters so much: two identical incomes in identical houses can sit on opposite sides of the threshold purely because one burns mains gas and the other relies on electricity.

How fuel poverty varies across electricity, gas and oil homes

The official survey evidence shows a consistent hierarchy across fuels. In 2022, 46% of households using electricity as their primary heating fuel were fuel poor, higher than households using gas (29%) and oil (28%). Extreme fuel poverty among electrically heated homes was higher still, at 34%⁹. The 2024 figures show the same pattern: 42% for electricity, 26% for other fuels, and 13% of oil users in extreme fuel poverty¹.

The Scottish Government's Heat in Buildings strategy summarised the divide starkly: "the fuel poverty rate for homes with electricity as their primary heating fuel is 43% compared to 22% for gas"². Tenure compounds the fuel effect. In 2022, rates in the housing association (47%), local authority (48%) and private rented sectors (44%) were similar⁹, and in 2024 the social sector overall stood at 49% against 22% in the private sector¹⁰.

The reasons electrically heated homes suffer most

Two structural factors explain the electric penalty. First, electricity is priced per unit of heat well above mains gas, so the same warmth costs more. Second, the homes that use electricity are concentrated off the gas network: around 20% of Scottish households are not connected to the gas network⁵, and these are disproportionately rural, island and older properties with no cheaper alternative.

The scenario modelling for January to March 2026 shows what this means in household numbers. Fuel poor households using electricity fell from 140,000 to 130,000, and 20,000 electrically heated households moved out of extreme fuel poverty, with extreme fuel poverty among them falling from 100,000 to 80,000 households³. Gas heated fuel poor households fell from 260,000 to 230,000, with the gas fuel poverty rate moving from 26% to 25% and extreme fuel poverty from 13% to 11%. Oil heated homes saw extreme fuel poverty fall from 37% to 30%³. Even after these improvements, electrically heated households remain the worst placed, and the modelling attributes the overall reduction of around 60,000 fuel poor households, 2.5 percentage points, to that quarter's price conditions³.

For a household thinking about energy independence, this is the sharpest cost risk in Scotland: a home that cannot access mains gas and heats with electricity carries both the highest fuel poverty probability and the deepest bills shortfall.

The fuel poverty gap before and after support

The fuel poverty gap measures how far below the line a fuel poor household sits: the amount by which its income, after fuel and housing costs, falls short of the standard it needs. The historical picture shows how sharply prices have bitten. The actual median fuel poverty gap was £690 in 2021¹¹, which was 65% higher than the median gap of £750 in 2019¹². Applying 2022 fuel prices to a 2019 sample increased the fuel poverty rate by 11 percentage points on its own⁹.

For electrically heated households the gap is far larger. In the January to March 2026 modelling, fuel poor households using electricity had a median fuel poverty gap of around £2,000 per year before support, falling to £1,700 after support, a reduction of £300³. No other fuel group in that modelling carries a gap of this size.

The trajectory across 2026 shows how sensitive the gap and the rate are to price caps. April to June 2026 modelling estimated around 680,000 fuel poor households, 27%, and around 320,000 in extreme fuel poverty, 12%¹³. By October to December 2026 the estimate rose to around 820,000, 32%, and around 440,000 in extreme fuel poverty, 17%, each up around 20,000 households on the previous quarter⁴. The 2024 survey, by contrast, recorded a decrease of 127,000 households, five percentage points, in fuel poverty compared with 2023¹⁰.

The net zero heating transition and fuel poor households

Scotland's move away from fossil fuel heating lands hardest on the households this page describes. Over one million households are expected to need a low-carbon heating system by 2030, according to official guidance on retrofit programmes¹⁴. Most low-carbon heating, such as heat pumps, runs on electricity, so the transition will push more homes onto the fuel whose users already face the highest fuel poverty rates.

That creates a policy tension the Scottish Government acknowledges in its strategy: unless electricity becomes cheaper relative to gas, or support reaches fuel poor homes first, decarbonisation risks widening the fuel divide rather than closing it. The 2040 statutory targets, no more than 5% fuel poor, no more than 1% in extreme fuel poverty, and a median gap of no more than £250 in 2015 prices⁸, sit alongside a net zero commitment that will change the heating systems of the very households least able to pay for that change. Independent analysis published in June 2026 found Scotland ahead of England in per-household uptake of solar PV and heat pumps⁵, which suggests the transition is under way, but uptake is not evenly spread across incomes.

Scottish grants and help schemes

Support for fuel poor households in Scotland has narrowed. The Fuel Insecurity Fund, which covered all fuel types and provided vital support for fuel poor people, who are amongst the most vulnerable living in Scotland, is no longer operating¹⁵. Following its removal, the Scottish Welfare Fund currently remains the only significant source of crisis funding available to support people with their energy bills¹⁷.

Other support continues through schemes such as Warmer Homes Scotland and the Home Energy Scotland grant and loan, and the Winter Heating Payment in Scotland and Pension Age Winter Heating Payment provide winter bill help. A social tariff working group has examined how targeted bill support might be designed, noting that previous schemes such as the Fuel Insecurity Fund covered all fuel types¹⁵. With around 20% of Scottish households at 20% fuel poverty¹⁸, the reach of remaining support matters as much as its existence. Households can check what applies to them through Home Energy Scotland grant and loan and the wider fuel poverty picture in Scotland.