How many heat pumps have been installed in Wales?

The gap between the current stock and the 2035 target is the central fact of Welsh heat pump deployment. Wales has consistently punched above its weight in UK government-supported installations, taking 19% of the UK total in the year ending June 2024, the largest share of any region⁴. But the absolute numbers remain far below what the Climate Change Committee says is needed: nearly 25,000 installations per year by 2030⁵.

The quarterly installation figures

Government-supported heat pump installations in Wales have fluctuated between roughly 500 and 1,800 per quarter since early 2024. The Q2 2026 figure of 568 is the lowest in the series, down from 749 in Q1 2026⁶ and 1,766 in Q3 2025⁷.

The quarterly pattern shows a marked decline through 2025 and into 2026. Wales recorded 1,562 installations in Q1 2025⁸, 1,493 in Q2 2025⁹, and 1,766 in Q3 2025⁷. The drop to 749 in Q1 2026 and 568 in Q2 2026 represents a significant slowdown.

Earlier quarters were stronger. Wales recorded 1,786 installations in Q1 2024¹⁰, 1,730 in Q2 2024⁴, 1,609 in Q3 2024¹¹, and 1,484 in Q4 2024¹². The 2024 average was therefore well above the 2026 rate.

These are government-supported installations only, meaning those backed by schemes such as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. The total number of heat pumps installed in Wales, including those installed without government support, is higher. The 22,000 figure for 2023 covers all heat pumps, not just subsidised ones¹.

Wales has historically accounted for a disproportionate share of UK government-supported installations. In the year ending June 2024, Wales took 19% of the UK total, ahead of the South West at 13% and the South East at 12%⁴. By the year ending September 2024, Wales held 18%¹¹. By the year ending March 2025, Wales was at 14%, level with the South West⁸. By the year ending September 2025, Wales had fallen to 13%, behind the South West and South East at 15% each⁷.

What the 2035 target requires

The Welsh Government has set a target of 580,000 heat pumps installed in Wales by 2035³. The Climate Change Committee has said annual installation rates will need to accelerate rapidly, reaching nearly 25,000 in 2030⁵. The draft Heat Strategy for Wales goes further, envisaging 30,000 installations per year by 2030¹³.

The target is contingent on scaled-up support from the UK Government and reductions in the cost of technology³. It is not a commitment that the Welsh Government can deliver alone, since much of the financial support comes through UK-wide schemes.

The Heat Strategy for Wales states that individual heat pumps are expected to be the dominant solution for homes in Wales¹³, and that heat pumps will be the championed solution for most building heat¹⁴. The strategy also notes that heat pump installations, particularly those funded by government grant schemes, should be carried out correctly and supported by associated retrofitting measures to ensure energy bills do not rise following installation¹⁵.

The employment implications are significant. The Heat Pump Association has estimated that Wales would need 5,446 full-time equivalent jobs in hydronic heat pump installation and servicing by 2035 to meet deployment targets¹⁶.

Who the figures cover

The installation statistics cover government-supported heat pumps, which means units installed under schemes such as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is available to urban and rural properties in England and Wales, including eligible self-builds, whether on or off the gas grid¹⁷.

The 22,000 total for 2023 covers all heat pumps in Wales, not just those supported by government schemes¹. Approximately 94% of renewable heat projects commissioned in Wales in 2021 were heat pumps, from over 2,000 individual projects¹⁸. In 2021, 2,073 heat pump projects added 21 MW of electrified heat, and the total heat pump capacity in Wales was 122 MW across 11,171 projects¹⁸.

MCS certified installations, which cover solar PV, battery storage, heat pumps and other renewables, reached 103,506 in Wales by November 2023¹⁹. This figure is not heat-pump-specific but indicates the scale of certified renewable activity in Wales.

Social housing tenants in Wales who have heat pumps installed under the Optimised Retrofit Programme are a specific group covered by separate support interventions²⁰.

Planning rules and permitted development

Most air source heat pumps in Wales fall under permitted development rights, but the rules differ from England. Wales requires a minimum 3-metre distance from the property boundary to reduce noise pollution potential²¹. This is more stringent than the rules in England.

From 1 June 2026, permitted development rights in Wales were extended. Heat pumps can now be installed on a wall or roof which fronts a highway, and air-to-air heat pump installations are allowed²². Previously, air-to-air heat pumps required planning permission due to a rule that heat pumps only be used for heating purposes²³.

All installations in Wales that fall under permitted development rights must comply with MCS 020 a)²².

For ground source heat pumps, Class C of the General Permitted Development Order applies in England and Wales²⁴. For air source heat pumps, Class G applies, with the restriction that outside conservation areas and World Heritage Sites the heat pump must not be installed on a highway-fronting wall above the level of the ground floor storey²⁵.

Planning rules vary slightly in Wales and Scotland, where more stringent rules related to where the heat pump can be placed in relation to the property boundary exist²⁶. Guidance on the Planning Portal relates to the planning regime for England; policy in Wales may differ²⁷.

Grants, installers and building regulations

Government support for heat pumps in Wales comes mainly through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which is available to homeowners in England and Wales replacing fossil fuel heating systems, subject to property and installer criteria²⁸. The scheme covers urban and rural properties, including eligible self-builds, whether on or off the gas grid¹⁷.

The Green Homes Wales scheme, announced in 2024, includes the installation of an air source heat pump, external wall insulation and smart home energy systems among eligible works²⁹. A separate Welsh Government announcement in 2026 confirmed £5 million to help Welsh households invest in greener homes, mentioning installing a heat pump, upgrading insulation, or modernising heating systems³⁰.

Official guidance recommends an installer who belongs to either the Microgeneration Certification Scheme or the relevant Competent Person Scheme³¹. For boiler and central heating installations under the Warm Home Discount regulations, the installer must be registered with TrustMark, with a certificate of lodgement issued by the operator of TrustMark³². The 2022 regulations set out equivalent quality assurance and consumer protection arrangements³³.

Building Regulations in Wales apply to providing services and fittings such as hot water cylinders and fuel burning appliances³⁴. Heat pump installations that involve such work fall within the building regulations regime.

What this means for household energy independence

A heat pump shifts a household's heating from gas to electricity. For a home with solar panels and a battery, that electricity can be self-generated, reducing reliance on the grid and on gas imports. For a home without on-site generation, the heat pump still removes direct gas dependence but increases electricity consumption, tying the household more closely to the electricity grid and its supplier.

The Welsh Government's own consultation acknowledges that heat pump installations funded by grant schemes should be supported by retrofitting measures to ensure energy bills do not rise following installation¹⁵. Without insulation and correct sizing, a heat pump can increase running costs rather than reduce them.

The planning regime in Wales, with its 3-metre boundary rule, can constrain where a heat pump is sited, particularly on smaller or terraced properties. The extension of permitted development rights to air-to-air heat pumps from June 2026 widens the options for homes that previously required planning permission²².

The 2035 target of 580,000 heat pumps is contingent on UK Government support and falling technology costs³. Households considering a heat pump in Wales are therefore dependent on a policy environment that is not wholly within Welsh Government control, and on a supply chain that the Heat Pump Association estimates will need 5,446 full-time equivalent workers in Wales by 2035¹⁶.