How many homes in England have a heat pump?

The two figures measure different things. The English Housing Survey counts dwellings in use on a given date; the MCS-derived figure counts certified installations accumulated over time, including replacements and homes that may since have changed system. Which? reports that only around 2 to 3% of UK households heat their homes using a heat pump³, while parliamentary research briefing material states that around 1% of UK homes have a heat pump installed⁴. The spread is a measurement question, not a disagreement about the direction of travel.

What the official counts show, and why they differ

The English Housing Survey figure of 276,000 dwellings at 1% is the closest thing to a census of installed systems in England¹. It is a stock measure: it asks what a household actually uses to heat its home, so a heat pump installed as a secondary source, or one that has been removed, does not appear.

The MCS-derived figure of around 9 per 1,000 households in England is a flow measure accumulated into a stock². It counts certified installations, which is a different population from dwellings in use. A home that installed a heat pump in 2015 and replaced it in 2023 contributes two installations but one dwelling.

The Office for National Statistics, looking at energy efficiency of housing in England and Wales, reports that 4.2% of new dwellings in England have heat pumps compared with 0.8% in existing dwellings⁵. That gap is the single clearest structural fact about English deployment: new build is where the technology is normal, and the existing stock is where it is rare. Because new build is a small annual addition to a large stock, even a high new-build rate moves the national percentage slowly.

The Climate Change Committee used approximately 1% of existing homes in 2024⁸, and its Balanced Pathway sees around half of UK homes heated using a heat pump by 2040, compared with around 1% in 2023⁷. Approximately 10% of existing homes in the UK will need to be heated by a heat pump by 2030⁸.

Who the figures apply to

Deployment is not spread evenly across household types. Nesta identifies a segment of around 7.7 million households, a quarter of UK households, as homeowners eligible for free heat pumps⁹. That is a policy-defined group, not a count of installations.

A separate analysis found that a quarter of households in the UK, seven million in total, are either off the gas grid or EPC C or above, making them potentially suitable candidates for heat pumps¹⁰. The two figures are close but not identical, and they are drawn from different work, so they should be read as two estimates of a similar-sized opportunity rather than one number.

The practical implication for a household is that eligibility and suitability are separate tests. A home can be off the gas grid, which removes the incumbent fuel, and still fail on space, emitter sizing or electrical capacity. A home can be EPC C and still be on gas, which means a heat pump is a substitution decision rather than a necessity.

Conditions, exceptions and where a heat pump does not fit

Official guidance states that 90% of UK homes already have enough insulation to run a heat pump¹¹, and a 2023 government roadmap said 90 per cent of British homes have sufficient insulation and electrical capacity for a heat pump¹². Parliamentary material repeats the same 90% figure for insulation and electrical capacity⁴.

Against that, a consultation found that up to 40% of UK homes may be unsuitable for standalone heat pumps due to space or insulation constraints¹³. The two positions are not a straight contradiction: the 90% figure describes physical capability in principle, while the 40% figure describes what can be done without additional work, such as emitter changes or a different unit position.

A 2021 study found that on a peak winter day, just 10% of UK homes are suitable for heat pumps with a 55°C flow temperature without emitter changes¹⁴. That is a cold-day, high-flow test, and it is the sharpest limit in the evidence: most of the stock can run a heat pump, but a much smaller share can do so at low flow temperature with the radiators already fitted.

Planning rules add a further condition in England. Permitted development for domestic air source heat pumps does not allow an installation where that would result in more than one air source heat pump, including flats¹⁵.

How deployment is measured, and what the numbers mean for independence

Heat pump statistics in the UK come from three main routes. The English Housing Survey and the Scottish House Condition Survey are official stock surveys that ask households what they use¹. MCS certification data counts installations by certified contractors, and Nesta's analyses of that data are the source of the per-1,000-household figures². Government and committee publications set the pathway numbers against which deployment is judged⁷.

The pathway numbers are large. The Climate Change Committee's CB7 Balanced Pathway estimates approximately half of UK homes being heated by heat pumps¹⁸, and the National Energy System Operator has modelled 23 million homes in Great Britain with heat pumps by 2050¹⁹. Nesta has said over 3 million homes need to install heat pumps or other low-carbon heating over this Parliament, 2025 to 2029²⁰. The Climate Change Committee has said around 45,000 homes a year are being retrofitted with a heat pump, from a total of 25 million homes²¹.

For a household, the independence question is straightforward. A heat pump replaces a gas boiler, so it removes direct dependence on the gas network for space heating and hot water, and it moves that demand onto electricity. It does not remove dependence on a supplier, on the grid, or on the electricity market, and it does not by itself make a home self-sustaining. What it changes is the fuel, and with it the exposure to gas prices and to the standing charges and network costs that come with a gas connection.

There are roughly 30 million homes in the UK and 85% of them rely on natural gas for heating²². That is the baseline the deployment figures sit against. Heat pumps are currently installed in 1% of UK homes²³, and fewer than 2% of homes have a heat pump in the UK, placing the nation among the lowest rates of installation in Europe²⁴. The European Heat Pump Association has reported that over half of households in Norway, Finland and Sweden own heat pumps²⁵, which is the comparison that gives the UK figure its context.

How the four nations compare

England's 1% share is not the UK's highest. The Scottish House Condition Survey counted 45,000 domestic properties with heat pumps in 2023, around 1.9% of all dwellings, up from 36,000, around 1.4%, in 2022⁶. Scotland's higher share reflects a different starting point: a larger off-gas-grid housing stock and a separate policy and funding framework.

The English figure of 276,000 dwellings at 1%¹ and the Scottish figure of 45,000 at 1.9%⁶ are both official stock survey counts, so they are comparable in method even though they are produced by different administrations. Wales and Northern Ireland do not have an equivalent stock figure in this evidence, so no like-for-like share can be given for them here.

What a household should expect in practice

The deployment figures describe a market that is still small, and the conditions that decide whether a particular home can join it are physical rather than statistical. The evidence points to three tests that matter more than the national percentage.

The first is the heat loss and emitter test. The 10% figure for homes suitable for a 55°C flow temperature without emitter changes¹⁴ is the one that most often decides whether a straightforward swap is possible or whether radiators need resizing.

The second is space. The 40% figure for homes potentially unsuitable for standalone heat pumps due to space or insulation constraints¹³ captures flats, terraces with no external wall available, and homes where a cylinder has nowhere to go.

The third is electrical capacity, which the 90% figure addresses¹². A home that passes all three is a candidate; a home that fails one is a candidate for additional work rather than a candidate for nothing.

Heat pumps are widely used in some European countries but are currently installed in 1% of UK homes⁴, and heat pumps are not very common in the UK, currently heating less than 1% of households²⁷. Those two statements, from a parliamentary briefing and an independent case study, are the honest summary of where England sits. The direction of the pathway is set; the deployment is not yet following it at the rate the pathway assumes.

More than 260,000 UK households now have heat pumps that can be used to cool homes²⁸, which is a reminder that the installed base is not only a heating story. Around 1% of homes, roughly 250,000, in the UK have an air source heat pump, making them the most widely installed efficient low-carbon heating technology²⁹. Nesta's earlier analysis of MCS data put the figure at 250,000 heat pumps in UK homes³⁰, and a later press release put it at around 260,000 existing heat pumps in UK homes³¹. Those two figures, from the same organisation at different dates, show how quickly the base is moving and how much the headline percentage lags it.