Ofgem announced the April to June 2025 Default Tariff Cap on 1 February 2025 at £1,849 a year for a typical dual fuel consumer paying by direct debit1. That is a 6% increase on January's cap of £1,738 and the third consecutive rise1. Cornwall Insight, which published the figure alongside its own forecast, said it is the first time the April cap has risen above the January cap since quarterly updates began in 20221.
The Institution of Gas Engineers and Managers put the increase at 6.4%, or £111 on average annual household bills, and attributed it to wholesale price fluctuations and policy costs2. The two figures describe the same cap but differ in the percentage given. Cornwall Insight said the rise was driven by the return of typical cold winter conditions, low renewable generation across Europe and falling gas reserves, which pushed wholesale prices up1.
Cornwall Insight's forecast for the following quarter, July to September 2025, is £1,756.02 for a typical dual fuel direct debit customer, a slight fall from April1. Its breakdown is:
| July to September 2025 | Standing charge (£/day) | Unit cost (p/kWh) | Annual cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity (2,700 kWh) | 0.55 | 25.20 | £882.16 |
| Gas (11,500 kWh) | 0.30 | 6.65 | £873.87 |
| Total | £1,756.02 |
The figures use Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Values of 2,700 kWh a year for electricity and 11,500 kWh a year for gas1. Cornwall Insight said forecasts are likely to change several times before the July cap is set, and that the predicted level remains hundreds of pounds above pre-crisis summer caps1.
Ofgem confirmed standing charges will decrease for most households from 1 April, though some will see increases due to network costs2. Since November 2024, four million customers have moved to fixed tariffs, bringing the total to 11 million2. The government is consulting on expanding the Warm Home Discount, which provides £150 off energy bills and could benefit 6.1 million households2. Support is also growing for Ofgem's proposed energy debt relief scheme, under which suppliers could write off or match repayments for struggling customers2.
"There is a sense of déjà vu in the energy market as we watch the price cap rise for a third consecutive time, with the volatile international wholesale market once again the main culprit."
Why it matters for households
The cap sets the maximum a supplier can charge a household on a standard variable tariff for each unit of gas and electricity, so the April figure flows through to what a typical home pays across the quarter. Households on a fixed tariff are unaffected until their deal ends; those on a standard variable tariff see rates track the cap. The full history of cap levels and announcement dates is set out in the price cap history, and how the level is calculated is covered in the guide to how the Default Tariff Cap is set.
The rise reflects the UK's exposure to imported gas, which Cornwall Insight said leaves the country more vulnerable to international wholesale swings than nations meeting more of their demand from their own sources1. Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley said: "Our reliance on international gas markets leads to volatile prices, reinforcing the need for investment in a cleaner, homegrown system"2. That link between import dependence and bill volatility is the subject of the guide to energy bills and energy independence.
For households carrying debt, the British Gas Energy Trust and Citizens Advice are named routes to grants and independent advice. The cap applies in Great Britain; coverage in Northern Ireland differs.
What happens next
The April to June cap takes effect on 1 April 20251. Ofgem is consulting on the non-wholesale elements of the cap and on a zero standing charge variant announced in late January1. The government's consultation on expanding the Warm Home Discount is open2. The July cap is due to be set in three months' time1.