Coalition sets out seven-point winter rescue plan for the Chancellor's Budget

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has set out a seven-point winter rescue plan for the Chancellor in a formal Budget submission, published on 16 September 2026¹. At its centre is a call to write off energy crisis arrears, with automatic eligibility for households on means-tested benefits and no minimum thresholds or forced contributions¹. The Coalition says this would be funded from the £7 billion excess profits windfall that Citizens Advice found has been handed to energy network companies, and that removing the £52 "bad debt allowance" from the Ofgem price cap would bring down bills for all¹.

The submission also calls for the Warm Home Discount across Great Britain to be uprated to match rising energy prices, extended to vulnerable households outside the means-tested benefits system and funded from general taxation rather than from other people's bills¹. The rebate was worth around 14% of a typical bill when it was introduced and is currently worth around 8%¹. In England, Wales and Northern Ireland, a third ask would replace Cold Weather Payments with an Extreme Weather Payment, triggered by forecast cold snaps and extended to cover dangerous summer heat¹. The remaining recommendations are a referral route for social workers, health professionals and debt advisers into bill support or home upgrades, long-term funding for a social tariff framework, confirmation that the VAT reduction on electricity will not lapse on 31 March 2027, and a Guarantee attached to publicly funded home upgrades¹.

The Coalition's analysis suggests the gas unit rate paid by consumers could hit 12p/kWh from 1 January 2027, which it says would represent a doubling of the unit rate in 12 months and a level not seen since the Energy Price Guarantee was in force during winter 2022/3¹. Forecasts for the price cap covering 1 January to 31 March 2027 range from around £1,872 (Cornwall Insight) to around £2,150 (Bloomberg Economics), against the confirmed level of £1,723 for 1 October to 31 December 2026¹. Ofgem publishes a headline annual figure rather than a forecast unit rate breakdown, so the 12p per kWh figure is Coalition modelling based on the upper end of that range, holding standing charges at approximately 31p a day for gas and 55p a day for electricity and using typical domestic consumption values of 9,500 kWh of gas and 2,500 kWh of electricity a year¹. The comparison is against the gas unit rate of 5.93p per kWh under the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2026¹. Under the cap for 1 January to 31 March 2023 the gas unit rate reached 17p per kWh, although households paid less because the Energy Price Guarantee discounted the capped rate¹.

Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

"What would make a difference now is a concerted national effort to get off gas and heating oil. That means breaking the link between electricity prices and the gas market, speeding up roll out of the Warm Homes Plan and putting support in place before this winter arrives."

The Coalition's energy firm profits tracker records around £125 billion in profits made on UK operations by 30 energy companies since 2020, with over £6 billion in UK profits posted since the start of the 2026 conflict with Iran alone¹. The submission urges the Chancellor to retain the Energy Profits Levy, ensure any successor mechanism raises revenue at a comparable level, and recover the network companies' windfall if it is not returned to consumers voluntarily¹.

Why it matters for households

Energy debt is the practical measure of a home's energy independence, and the submission is built on the position that many households never cleared the debts built up when the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring¹. Writing off arrears would reset the starting point for those households rather than leaving them carrying a balance into a winter of higher unit rates. The £52 bad debt allowance is a cost carried by all billpayers through the price cap, so its removal would affect homes that are not in debt as well as those that are¹.

The Warm Home Discount and the proposed Extreme Weather Payment both bear on how far a household can keep a home at a safe temperature without rationing use. The Coalition's polling found 36% of people reported using more energy than in previous summers to keep their home cool, rising above 40% in Yorkshire & Humberside, the East Midlands, the South East and the South West¹. That connects to overheating and hot weather in homes, where cooling demand sits alongside heating demand as a driver of bills.

The Coalition's own framing is that domestic production offers no protection, because around 90% of commercially viable North Sea gas has already been extracted and what remains is likely to be sold at global market prices¹. On that reading, a household's exposure to conflict-driven prices is the same whether the gas comes from Norway, Qatar or Aberdeen, which is the argument behind the call to break the link between electricity prices and the gas market¹. Households on unregulated heating oil, LPG, coal heating or some heat networks are described as already facing spikes, a point relevant to rural homes and to park homes and static caravans, which sit outside the standard cap arrangements.

What happens next

The next price cap period reflecting the new prices will be announced in late November and come into force on 1 January 2027¹. The Autumn Budget is the point at which the submission's asks would be answered; the Coalition has not reported a date for it¹. Separately, more than 120 organisations have written to the Chancellor calling for levies to be moved off electricity bills and onto general taxation, a letter coordinated by Energy UK and the E3G-led Electricity Bills Taskforce carrying 123 signatures¹. The Coalition has also noted that Reform have pledged to scrap the Warm Home Discount for 6 million households in the first 100 days after the next general election, and that the Scottish Government's Programme for Government 2026 to 2031 confirms the return of heat in buildings legislation but omits any mention of fuel poverty¹.

Sources1 cited

1. News - End Fuel Poverty Coalition, endfuelpoverty.org.uk