The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) commented on 21 November 2025 on Ofgem's energy price cap for January to March 2026, stating that the typical dual fuel bill will remain stable, rising by just 0.2% or around 30p1. Adjusted for inflation, ECIU says the same bill will fall by £37 in real terms1.
The unit adds that the cap is expected to rise again in April, largely as a result of network costs1. That expectation is attributed to Cornwall Insight1. The January to March level itself is set by Ofgem1.
Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at ECIU, said:
"With colder weather setting in, energy bills are still a worry for many. Our electricity system, like our schools, has seen low levels of investment and we're now playing catch-up. To use more of our own power and ensure we're less reliant on foreign gas imports and its price swings, investing in an upgraded power grid is crucial."
Ralston also said: "We can't afford a repeat of the energy crisis that cost us over £180bn, the equivalent of £6,400 per household. The Energy Crisis Commission has said the Government's promised Warm Homes Plan is important to help the most vulnerable households reduce bills and be warmer and healthier."1
The £180bn figure and the £6,400 per household equivalent come from ECIU and E3G analysis cited by the unit1. The reference to the Warm Homes Plan is attributed to the Energy Crisis Commission1. No further detail on the April cap level, on network cost components, or on the timing of the Warm Homes Plan appears in the material published alongside the comment.
| Measure | Change |
|---|---|
| Typical dual fuel bill, January to March 2026 | Up 0.2%, around 30p1 |
| Same bill, adjusted for inflation | Down £37 in real terms1 |
| Expected April change | Rise, largely network costs1 |
Why it matters for households
A cap that moves by around 30p leaves the headline figure for a typical dual fuel tariff close to where it has been, so households on a default tariff see little change in the amount they pay for the January to March quarter. The real terms figure is the different number: £37 lower once inflation is taken into account, which describes what the same bill buys relative to prices elsewhere rather than a reduction in the amount charged1.
The composition of the bill matters more than the headline movement. ECIU attributes the expected April rise largely to network costs1, the part of the bill that pays for wires, pipes and system upkeep rather than wholesale energy. Those costs sit inside the cap alongside wholesale prices, operating costs and policy costs, and they are not avoided by switching supplier or by using less gas. Households wanting to see where the money goes can read what makes up an energy bill, and why a stated cap figure often differs from an individual bill in why is my bill higher than the cap figure.
For energy independence, the argument ECIU makes is about exposure rather than price alone: a system that uses more of its own power and less imported gas is less exposed to the price swings that drove the crisis the unit prices at over £180bn, or £6,400 per household1. The unit links that to grid investment and to the Warm Homes Plan for the most vulnerable households1. The relationship between imported gas prices and domestic bills is set out in wholesale gas and electricity prices, and the mechanics of the cap itself in how the default tariff cap is set.
What happens next
The January to March 2026 cap takes effect on 1 January 20261. ECIU expects the cap to rise again in April, largely because of network costs1. No date for the April announcement, and no figure for the expected April level, has been reported in the material published with the comment.