A typical UK household will rely on 17MWh of imported energy in 2024, two thirds of the primary energy it needs for heating, power and fuel, according to a report published on 21 June 2024 by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU). The report, Household Energy Security in 2030, models what happens to that figure under different assumptions about home upgrades and UK renewables, and finds that a household with energy efficiency at EPC C, an electric heat pump and an electric vehicle would need only 3.4MWh of imported primary energy in 20301.
The ECIU describes the 17MWh figure as 67% of the total primary energy needed to meet a household's needs for heating, power and fuel, with the other third met by UK sources including oil, gas, biomass and renewable electricity1. It says imports are set to rise further by 2030 and beyond as UK production of oil and gas declines, irrespective of new licences. Without more UK renewables and without net zero upgrades, and even if new oil and gas licences increased production, it projects that a typical household in 2030 would use as much energy as today and rely on over 20MWh of imported energy, an increase of 3MWh, or 20%1.
The report states that the only way households can become less reliant on imported energy is to adopt technologies that cut oil and gas demand, which it lists as primarily energy efficiency, electric heat pumps and electric vehicles, with the electricity to power them becoming more secure as more UK renewables are built1. Comparing its 2030 scenarios, it says the 3.4MWh a year used by the upgraded household would be almost 85% lower than the more than 20MWh a year used by a home without upgrades if there were no new UK renewables and the UK continued licencing oil and gas exploration1.
"'Energy patriotism' could slash homes' foreign energy dependence by 80%, and new North Sea oil and gas 'largely irrelevant' for energy security"
The report's figures are modelled scenarios rather than metered outcomes, and it does not set out costs for the upgrades it describes. The page carrying the report carries a last updated date of 27 Aug. 20241.
| Scenario for 2030 | Imported energy a year |
|---|---|
| Typical household, no upgrades, no new UK renewables | Over 20MWh |
| Household with EPC C, heat pump and EV, faster renewables | 3.4MWh |
Why it matters for households
The report frames imported energy as a household-level exposure, not only a national one. On its numbers, a home running a gas boiler, standard electricity and gas demand and a petrol car meets about two thirds of its primary energy needs from abroad, which is the starting point for how much imported energy a UK household uses. The gap between the two 2030 scenarios, over 20MWh against 3.4MWh, is the report's measure of how much a heat pump and EV cut reliance on imported energy, and it rests on the household reaching EPC C as well as switching heating and transport fuels.
For a household, the practical link between these numbers and energy independence is that the imported share falls only where oil and gas demand falls, and the electricity replacing them is generated in the UK. The report does not put a price on either scenario, so the cost of energy independence to a household is not established by it. Nor does it address supply at the street or community level, which is the subject of local energy supply. Homes that have already made changes are covered in the site's case studies with real numbers, and the wider question of how household exposure feeds into national planning is set out under household resilience and national risk.
What happens next
The report gives no dated milestones beyond its 2024 and 2030 comparison years. It says imports rise further by 2030 and beyond as UK oil and gas production declines, irrespective of new licences, but sets out no schedule for the renewables build or the household upgrades its lower scenario depends on1.