Ofgem will announce the level of the July to September 2026 energy price cap towards the end of May, according to Age UK, which said the timing gives households "some precious temporary reassurance"1. The cap is expected to rise sharply on April's level of £1,641 a year for a typical dual fuel household2.
Forecasts differ. Cornwall Insight predicted a rise of 11.3%, which would mean electricity up 4.7% and gas up 18.9%, or £186 more a year for the average home; the consumer campaigner Martin Lewis has said it could go up by as much as 30%2. EDF predicted a further 5.1% rise in October, worth another £92 a year2. The July level has not yet been announced, and no final figure has been reported.
The pressure comes from wholesale prices. The Iran conflict began on 28 February 2026, when the US and Israel launched joint missile strikes against Iran, which responded with attacks across the Middle East and warned ships not to cross the Strait of Hormuz2. Traffic through the strait, which normally carries about 20% of world petroleum and liquefied natural gas supply, has fallen by about 92%, and Iran has reportedly attacked 13 vessels in or near it since the conflict began2. Around one third of UK gas comes from the North Sea, but it is sold at the international market price, and gas sets the price of electricity about 98% of the time under marginal cost pricing2.
Age UK's figures, published on 18 March, describe the position before the conflict's later price effects. More than one in four pensioners (28%) said they were struggling to manage financially, with energy the main issue; 25%, equivalent to 3 million adults over 66, said they found their energy bills unaffordable; 69%, or 8.3 million, said they would rather turn off their heating than fall into debt; and 35%, or 4.2 million, said they had recently cut back on heating or powering their homes1. Consumer energy debt is at a record £4.5bn and is forecast to reach £7bn by the end of the year, while calls to Age UK's free Advice Line rose 36% between December 2025 and February 20261.
"The fact that the energy price cap will not be reviewed again until July provides some precious temporary reassurance"
Off-gas households sit outside the cap. Oil heating systems serve around 1.5 million homes across the UK, and in Northern Ireland over 60% of households use oil as their primary heating source1. Age UK said households dependent on oil heating are not protected by a price cap and are therefore at immediate risk, and cited one householder whose full tank cost £400 in January 2026 and £800 when he refilled in March1. The government announced £53m of support for oil heated households in the week of that publication1. Some heat network customers, park home residents and care home residents are also outside the standard cap arrangements1.
Why it matters for households
The cap sets the maximum unit rate and standing charge a supplier can charge on a standard variable tariff, so the July level determines what most households pay for the following quarter. Because the cap is set per unit of energy rather than per household, a higher cap does not automatically raise a bill: a home that uses less pays less. The unit rate and standing charge are the figures that track what a household actually pays, and the price cap history shows how each level has been set since 2019.
For homes on gas, the exposure is direct, since gas is the fuel that heats most UK homes and also sets the electricity price for most hours. For the roughly 1.5 million homes on oil heating, and for the higher share in Northern Ireland, there is no cap at all, so the Northern Ireland position and the full guide to bills and the cap set out where protection does and does not apply. The link between imported fuel prices and domestic bills is the subject of energy bills and energy independence.
What happens next
Ofgem announces the July to September cap towards the end of May1. The October cap is announced in late August2. The government's Warm Homes Plan, launched in January 2026 with a promise to fund solar installations for vulnerable households and offer interest-free and low-interest solar loans to others, has no set start date or eligibility criteria2.