The Welsh Government published an integrated impact assessment (IIA) for its new Warm Homes Programme on 8 March 20241. The document sets out the programme's aims, its estimated cost and the consultation that informed its design1.
The proposal is estimated to cost around £260 million over the full life of the programme and will be fully funded by the Welsh Government1. The programme will take what the assessment calls a fabric, worst and low carbon first approach, improving the energy efficiency of the least thermally efficient low-income households in Wales1. It will operate through two routes: an advice service and physical improvements to the homes of the fuel poor1. Low carbon measures such as heat pumps or solar panels with battery storage are in scope1. Measures will be applied only after a Whole House Assessment, in accordance with PAS 20351.
The assessment states that in Wales, fuel poor households are those needing to pay more than 10% of their full household income to maintain a satisfactory heating regime, and those paying more than 20% are considered to be in severe fuel poverty1. The Welsh Government's plan to tackle fuel poverty 2021-2035 aims for no more than 5% of all Welsh households living in fuel poverty by 2035, and no households in persistent or severe fuel poverty1. In 2021 Welsh homes accounted for approximately 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions in Wales, with emissions driven by electricity consumption counted separately1.
The scheme is modelled to save around 2.11 million tonnes of carbon, which the assessment says is estimated to provide societal benefits worth £314 million using HM Treasury guidance1. Improved thermal comfort is estimated to be worth £41 million over the lifetime of the programme1. The assessment cites an annual cost to the NHS of £857 million from excess cold in UK homes, and estimates that addressing even just excess cold could save the NHS over £41 million per annum with a payback period of 4.8 years1.
"the programme will operate a "worst first" approach, addressing those households who are low income and living in the least energy efficient houses as a priority."
On funding from other schemes, the assessment states that the advice services will signpost people to and seek to leverage ECO4, Great British Insulation Scheme and Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding from the UK Government1. It adds that the programme will stay alive to new UK schemes and review leverage opportunities regularly1. The service will be available in both Welsh and English1.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Estimated programme cost | Around £260 million over the full life of the programme1 |
| Modelled carbon savings | Around 2.11 million tonnes1 |
| Estimated societal benefits | £314 million1 |
| Estimated value of improved thermal comfort | £41 million over the programme lifetime1 |
| Written consultation responses | Over 501 |
| Workshop delegates | Over 1001 |
Why it matters for households
The assessment describes the programme as the Welsh Government's primary mechanism to tackle fuel poverty and a contributor to a net zero Wales by 20501. For households in fuel poverty, the stated aim is a saving on energy bills through fabric improvements or new low carbon technology, and the ability to heat homes to a more comfortable level1. The assessment says the improvement may also enable some vulnerable residents to remain in their homes for longer1. It notes that free impartial energy savings advice will remain available to all householders in Wales, which it describes as especially important for those with new technologies such as heat pumps, solar PV and battery storage that may be unfamiliar to operate1. Eligibility is framed around low income and the least energy efficient homes, with a worst first priority1. The assessment does not set out the specific eligibility criteria or the application process for households, and these have not been reported in the document.
What happens next
The assessment states that minor amendments to the HEES regulations are planned and will be subject to a separate Regulatory Impact Assessment1. It also states that the programme will retain an independent quality assurance approach used in previous iterations, with enhanced elements found within PAS 20351. No start date for the new programme is given in the assessment.
Householders looking for background on the scheme can read about Nest and the Warm Homes Programme in Wales and home energy grants in Wales. The assessment also refers to leverage of the Energy Company Obligation and other UK schemes, and to which benefits qualify for energy grants.