Nesta published the conclusion of its report, "How the UK compares to the rest of Europe on heat pump uptake", on 8 August 2023. The research and innovation foundation compared heat pump installation per household by type of heat pump between 2011 and 2021 across European countries, and found that uptake is uneven but rising everywhere1.
The report states that the most prevalent type of heat pump in Europe is air-to-air, dominating both the "heat pump powerhouse" and "surger" groups of countries1. It notes that air-to-air units are cheaper and easier to install than air-to-water heat pumps, but that they are not always used for space heating: in cooler countries, primarily in southern Europe, they are used as air conditioning units to provide space cooling1. The report also says it is unclear from the data whether the countries installing air-to-air heat pumps are using them for heating rather than cooling1.
On the UK specifically, the report draws a link between household habits and grant design. It says most UK households already have radiators and want to continue heating their homes in that way, and that the Boiler Upgrade Scheme offers grants only for air-to-water and ground-source heat pumps1. The report's authors also observe that all countries in its "heat pump latecomer" category rely primarily on air-to-water heat pumps, while adding that this does not mean such reliance is wrong1.
"the UK's flagship Boiler Upgrade Scheme policy only offers grants for air-to-water and ground-source heat pumps, not air-to-air heat pumps"
The report's conclusion argues that the prevalence of air-to-air heat pumps in Scandinavian countries, where they are used for heating, shows they should not be discounted as an alternative way to heat homes and accelerate the rollout of heat pumps1. The document does not set out grant rates, installation costs or a timetable for any policy change, and no figures for UK air-to-air installations are given in the conclusion1.
| Heat pump type | Boiler Upgrade Scheme support, as described by Nesta |
|---|---|
| Air-to-water | Grants offered1 |
| Ground-source | Grants offered1 |
| Air-to-air | No grants offered1 |
Why it matters for households
The grant position shapes which systems a household can get public money towards. A home that already has radiators and a wet central heating system sits in the category the Boiler Upgrade Scheme is designed around, and the scheme's rules on which homes and systems qualify are set out in its eligibility criteria. Households weighing a system that also provides cooling, or one installed as a air-to-air heat pump, fall outside the grant as Nesta describes it, which is covered in more detail in why air-to-air heat pumps do not get the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant.
The comparison between the two system types, including how each delivers heat and what each requires in a home, is set out in air-to-air vs air-to-water heat pumps. For a household, the practical question raised by the report is whether a grant-funded route and a non-grant-funded route lead to the same level of energy independence, given that the report itself says the data does not show whether air-to-air units are being used for heating or cooling1. Homes with an existing gas boiler face separate eligibility questions, covered in whether a gas boiler affects Boiler Upgrade Scheme eligibility, and hybrid systems are treated in hybrid heat pump eligibility.
What happens next
The report does not announce any change to the Boiler Upgrade Scheme or set out dated next steps. No government response to the report's conclusion has been reported.
Sources1 cited
- Conclusion | Nesta, nesta.org.uk