The energy price cap for July to September 2023 was set at £1,976 for typical dual fuel direct debit consumption, below the level of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG), according to a Commons Library research briefing published on 28 August 20261. The fall meant maximum prices were set by the price cap again for that period, rather than by the EPG1.
The EPG had been introduced in October 2022 to reduce price increases for domestic customers, after gas prices in Europe rose by 50% on 24 February 2022, the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine1. The cap had reached £3,371 in the fourth quarter of 2022 and £4,059 in January to March 2023, before falling to £3,116 in April to June 20231. The briefing states:
"The fall in the cap in Q3 2023 to below EPG levels meant that consumer bills fell for the first time in almost three years and the EPG was no longer be a cost to government."
The briefing records that the cap fell further to £1,834 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and was planned to rise to £1,9281. Because these levels stayed below the EPG, the mechanism was not needed to set maximum prices again, and it ended on 31 March 20241. The briefing also notes that Ofgem introduced new lower values for typical consumption for all its relevant publications from October 2023, and reduced these levels again in July 20261.
| Period | Price cap, typical dual fuel direct debit |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 (October to December) | £3,371 |
| Q1 2023 (January to March) | £4,059 |
| Q2 2023 (April to June) | £3,116 |
| Q3 2023 (July to September) | £1,976 |
| Q4 2023 (October to December) | £1,834 |
Source: Commons Library research briefing, 28 August 20261
Why it matters for households
The cap is expressed as an annual figure for a typical household, assumed in the briefing to use 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas1. Annual bills are not capped: households using more pay more, and those using less pay less1. Prices also vary by region and are higher for customers paying by quarterly bills1.
The briefing states that the record prices in 2022 would have led to an 80% increase in the cap in Great Britain without government intervention, and that the EPG limited the increase to 27% in October 2022, meaning domestic consumers paid less than they would have under the cap until July 20231. The EPG's closure in March 2024 means the cap alone now sets maximum prices for standard variable tariffs, and the EPG is no longer available as a separate support mechanism1.
The briefing adds that with little immediate prospect of savings from fixed tariffs or substantial further cuts in the price cap, the only way to substantially reduce energy bills while still adequately heating and powering homes is to improve the energy efficiency of properties1. It also notes that energy prices in Northern Ireland are not controlled by the price cap and only a minority of households there use mains gas for heating1.
What happens next
The briefing states that the price cap will increase by 4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and is currently forecast to increase by a further 9% in the first quarter of 20271. It records that wholesale gas prices doubled in early March 2026 after the start of the Middle East conflict, and that spot gas prices in late August 2026 were at their highest level since January 20231. It adds that forecasts of the price cap are uncertain, so there is no guarantee that prices fall at this time1.
Sources1 cited
- Author: BOLTON, Paul, researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk