The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit published analysis on 15 May 2023 finding that current Government policies could leave British homes sending £500 a year to overseas gas producers, as import dependency rises to 85% by 20351. The UK currently imports around half of its gas, and North Sea gas output will drop by 75% by 2035 according to official forecasts1.
The analysis puts a figure on what that dependence means for an individual home. A house with average insulation, a gas boiler and average electricity usage could be using £5,700 of foreign gas over the next 12 years, with around £500 of that in 2035 alone, of which an estimated £140 would be going to Qatar1. By contrast, a home with good insulation, a heat pump and solar panels, alongside faster deployment of British renewables, would be using £10 of gas come 2035, of which just £1 would be used for Qatari gas1.
At national level, the analysis says the UK would be paying up to £30bn a year for net imports of gas from the early 2030s, with the gas trade deficit being over four times the level it was before the gas crisis1. Wholesale gas prices are predicted to stay two to three times higher than before the crisis1.
Dr Simon Cran-McGreehin, Head of Analysis at ECIU, said:
"You can't squeeze much more out of the North Sea; its output has been declining and the official numbers show that's going to continue. It's simply running out of gas."
"The Government has some of the right targets for UK energy independence, but not the policies to deliver on them."
The analysis states that the Government has a stated aim for the UK to be energy independent, and that the IMF has previously warned UK households have been worst affected by the energy crisis because of high dependence on gas for heating and power1. Home insulation rates plummeted a decade ago when Government cut support schemes and have even fallen during the gas crisis, it says1. On heat pumps, it notes Octopus and British Gas are now both offering to install them from £3,000, similar to the cost of a new gas boiler1. It also cites renewables industry concern that recent tax changes and planning regulations will slow deployment, and says businesses involved in the UK's net zero economy are adding more than £70bn GVA according to analysis commissioned by ECIU1.
Why it matters for households
The analysis frames household exposure to international gas markets as a question of how much of a home's running cost leaves the country. On its figures, a typical gas-heated home's import dependence is not fixed: it rises as North Sea output falls, even if the home itself changes nothing. The gap between the £5,700 and £10 figures over 12 years rests on insulation, a heat pump, solar panels and faster build-out of British renewables, not on household behaviour alone1. The wider cost of energy independence therefore sits partly in the national balance of trade, which the analysis says would approach £30bn a year in net gas imports from the early 2030s1. That links individual homes to national risk planning, because a fuel that is imported at scale is exposed to price and supply shocks beyond UK control. The analysis does not report figures for every home type, region or heating system, and no household-level breakdown beyond the two example homes has been reported.
What happens next
No dated next steps are set out in the analysis. It points to the Government's stated energy independence aim and to existing targets, and says the policies to deliver on them are not in place1.