Cornwall Insight's forecast points to the energy price cap rising from 1 July by 10%, to around £1,800 a year for the average household, according to the End Fuel Poverty Coalition1. The prediction follows Ofgem's announcement, days earlier, that the cap would fall by £117 for the average household in April2. The End Fuel Poverty Coalition said its members expect the £1,800 figure to sit at the lower end of predictions if the conflict is not resolved in the coming days, and that gas prices were 26% up year-on-year as at 0930 on 5 March1.
Uswitch, commenting on the same forecast, said the majority of households could see a significant jump in bills driven by the situation in the Middle East, while noting it is still far too early to say with certainty what the July cap will be2. Its director of regulation, Richard Neudegg, said the quarterly review means market shocks reach standard tariffs quickly, while customers on fixed deals are protected for the duration of their fix2. He also said fairly-priced fixed deals below these predictions were still available, and that those switching to a fixed deal would receive a reduction to their unit rates once the Government's energy bill cuts take place from 1 April2.
"This prediction is a stark reminder of why relying on the price cap leaves customers exposed to global events."
The End Fuel Poverty Coalition said the projected increase would wipe out the savings delivered by the Budget and pile further pressure on households already struggling, adding that energy debt is already at record levels1. It also said the energy industry stands to benefit from the crisis, and that some are calling for an early end to the Windfall Tax1. The coalition's figures and Uswitch's commentary both rest on the same Cornwall Insight forecast; neither source gives the pound level of the April cap itself, only the £117 reduction2.
| Item | Figure | Effective date |
|---|---|---|
| April cap change | Down £117 for the average household | April2 |
| Predicted July cap | Up 10%, around £1,800 for the average household | 1 July1 |
| Gas prices | 26% up year-on-year, as at 0930 5 March | 5 March1 |
Why it matters for households
The cap sets the unit rates and standing charges a supplier can charge on a standard variable tariff, and it is reviewed every three months, so a wholesale price shock can reach a household's bill within one review cycle rather than being spread over years2. That is the exposure Uswitch describes: a home on a standard tariff takes the market movement, while a home on a fixed deal does not, because its rates are locked for the length of the fix2. For a household's energy independence, the practical point is how much of the bill is set by events abroad rather than by anything the household controls. The coalition's position is that the UK remains tied to global gas prices, and that shocks of this kind will keep hitting household finances while that remains the case1. The forecast is a prediction, not a decision: the July cap level has not been announced, and the sources do not report the date on which Ofgem will confirm it.
What happens next
The Government's energy bill cuts take effect from 1 April, and Uswitch says those switching to a fixed deal will also receive a reduction to their unit rates from that date2. The April cap change, a fall of £117 for the average household, also applies from April2. The predicted July increase would take effect from 1 July1. Ofgem's confirmation date for the July cap has not been reported in these sources.