The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit published analysis on 23 May 2024 showing that, despite a fall in the Ofgem price cap the following day, the average annual dual fuel bill for a UK household remains around 40 per cent, or £450, higher than pre-crisis levels1.
The same analysis states that over the three years since the start of the gas crisis, the average UK household's dual fuel bill reached £6,800, double the £3,400 cost of energy bills in the three years before the crisis1. Of that increase, the Government paid over £1,000 through the energy price guarantee, with households covering the other £2,4001. The £400 paid to each household under the Energy Bill Support Scheme forms part of that government support, alongside other packages for some households1.
The figures draw on price cap data up to the second quarter of 2024 and Cornwall's final forecast for the third quarter of 2024, with bills calculated on the prices and demand splits in each quarter to reflect price volatility during the crisis1.
Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the ECIU, said:
"Households are still struggling with bills that are hundreds of pounds higher than pre-crisis levels and estimates suggest bills may rise again as we head into winter. The UK spent around £100bn on gas over the past two years. We could have learned lessons from the crisis and insulated our buildings, built more renewables and moved away from gas boilers, but instead home insulation schemes are unambitious, the last renewables auction secured no more offshore wind, and the shift to electric heat pumps has been delayed."
Ralston added that "whatever colour the next government is, we'll be heading into a winter still heavily dependent on volatile gas markets, going backwards on our energy independence", and that the cost of living and the UK's energy security may be key election issues1.
Why it matters for households
The gap between current bills and pre-crisis levels is the practical measure of what a household's energy costs, and the analysis puts that gap at around £450 a year on a typical dual fuel bill1. The comparison over three years, £6,800 against £3,400, shows how much of the crisis cost was absorbed by government support and how much fell on households directly1.
The ECIU's framing links the level of bills to the UK's reliance on gas markets, describing a coming winter of heavy dependence on volatile gas prices and movement "going backwards on our energy independence"1. That connects household bills to the wider question of how a home's energy is sourced and priced, which is set out in the site's guide to energy bills and energy independence. The mechanics of how the cap is set, and the levels it has passed through, are covered in the guide to the price cap and its history, while the scheme that capped unit costs during the crisis is explained in the guide to the Energy Price Guarantee. The £400 payments referenced in the analysis are covered in the guide to closed energy bill support payments.
What happens next
The analysis notes estimates suggesting bills may rise again as the UK heads into winter1. No further dated steps are set out in the material.