The UK government's target of 600,000 heat pump installations a year by 2028 was set out in its 2021 Heat and Buildings Strategy, and a July 2023 parliamentary briefing reviewed the goal while acknowledging the barriers to reaching it1. The briefing, published by the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, recorded that 72,000 heat pumps were installed in 20221. The Climate Change Committee had earlier put the 2021 figure at around 35,0003.
The briefing set out where the heat pump target stands and what stands in its way. Heat pumps are installed in 1% of UK homes, against widespread use in some European countries, and the Climate Change Committee projects they will be needed in at least half, but likely closer to 80%, of homes by 2050 to reach net zero1. The briefing found heat pumps are technically suitable for most UK homes if installed appropriately, but that the supply chain is constrained by a lack of consumer demand and government policy uncertainty1.
On cost, the briefing stated that installation costs are higher than for gas boilers, partly because of additional retrofitting, and that large cost reductions are unlikely1. It also stated that heat pumps currently have similar running costs to gas boilers, and that reducing the price of electricity relative to gas would make them more competitive, with additional savings possible on flexible electricity tariffs1. A separate guide put electricity at 27p/kWh against gas at 7p/kWh under the October to December 2023 price cap2.
"The UK Government has a target of 600,000 installations per year by 2028 and 72,000 were installed in 2022."
The briefing listed further barriers: low public interest in and understanding of heat pumps, a lack of qualified installers, planning rules and the need for electricity infrastructure upgrades1. The Climate Change Committee had already warned in March 2022 that the UK did not have anywhere near enough supply chain capacity for the heat pumps and heat networks needed, and that the construction workforce had shrunk since 20193. The briefing noted the Boiler Upgrade Scheme provides grants towards installation costs, with support also available for installers and manufacturers, and that other measures were being considered as part of the Energy Bill1.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Target installations per year by 2028 | 600,0001 |
| Installations in 2022 | 72,0001 |
| Installations in 2021 (CCC estimate) | around 35,0003 |
| Share of UK homes with a heat pump | 1%1 |
Why it matters for households
The gap between 72,000 installations in a year and a 600,000 target describes how far the heat pump market is from the scale the government set out. For a household, the practical points are the ones the briefing identifies as barriers: the upfront cost relative to a gas boiler, the running cost comparison, and whether a qualified installer is available locally. The briefing's finding that running costs are currently similar to a gas boiler, and that cheaper electricity relative to gas would improve that position, bears directly on heat pumps and household energy independence: a home that runs its heating on electricity rather than gas is less exposed to gas prices, but the size of that benefit depends on the electricity price it pays and the tariff it is on.
The briefing also noted that heat pumps are technically suitable for most UK homes if installed appropriately, which places the constraint on the installation and the building rather than the technology itself1. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is the main grant route named in the briefing, and it applies to air-source and ground-source heat pumps rather than hybrid systems1.
What happens next
The briefing stated that other measures were being considered as part of the Energy Bill1. No further dated steps on the 600,000 target have been reported.
Sources3 cited
- Heat pumps - POST, post.parliament.uk
- Gas Boiler Ban Myths Debunked, boxt.co.uk
- Taking stock of the UK Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk