The UK Government released new fuel poverty statistics for England in late February 2022. According to the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, the figures highlighted a lack of progress towards the Government's statutory fuel poverty commitments, with warnings that it will take over 60 years for those commitments to be met1. The statistics do not capture the energy bill increases announced since their release1.
The Coalition, which represents almost 50 organisations, said the data carries a long lag for England1. It also pointed to the Government's 2019 manifesto commitment to invest £9.2bn in the energy efficiency of homes, schools and hospitals in England, including £2.5bn for the Home Upgrade Grant Scheme (HUG), and said less than half of that pledge has been committed to date1. HUG targets low-income households in the least efficient, private tenure homes, which the Coalition describes as the most expensive to heat1.
Separately, the Coalition set out projections for household numbers. It said the GB price cap rises on 1 April 2022 by an additional £700 per year, taking the "average" domestic energy bill to £2,000 and leaving a further 2 million households in fuel poverty1. On that basis, charities estimate the number of households in fuel poverty across the UK will reach 6.5 million in April, an increase of more than 50% in just over six months, using the 10% definition of fuel poverty1. On 24 February, Investec Bank Ltd estimated the price cap could spike another 50% in October to more than £3,000 per household1. If average bills reach £3,000, the Coalition says 8.5 million UK households would be in fuel poverty, or one in three1.
"When energy bills hit £2,000 a year there will be over 6.5 million UK households in fuel poverty. Analysts suggest the war in Ukraine could drive average bills to £3,000 per year. This could leave 8.5 million UK households in fuel poverty denied a warm safe home."
The Coalition also cited World Health Organisation modelling suggesting an estimated 80 frail and elderly people die prematurely every day across the UK each winter1. Age UK's Charity Director, Caroline Abrahams, said the support announced by the Government is "nowhere near enough" and asked how those on the lowest incomes would find an extra £350 to cover energy bills1. The Coalition also noted a long delay to implementing consulted-on plans to extend and expand the Energy Company Obligation, Warm Home Discount and Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards in the private rented sector1.
Why it matters for households
Fuel poverty statistics measure how many homes cannot afford to heat and power them adequately, and the definitions differ between nations, which affects how the numbers are counted and compared. The Coalition's projections rest on the 10% definition, which it says gives a realistic picture when prices are volatile1. For a household, the practical link between these figures and energy independence is the fabric of the home: the less efficient a property, the more of every bill goes on heat that escapes, and the more exposed its occupants are to price cap movements they cannot control. The Coalition frames the least efficient, private tenure homes as the most expensive to heat, and HUG as targeting that group1. The statistics themselves do not capture the bill increases announced after their release, so the published rate and the current pressure on households are not the same figure1.
What happens next
The Coalition called on the Chancellor to use his Economic Statement in March 2022 to cut energy bills further for the poorest households and to rethink the "heat now, pay later" rebate1. The GB price cap rise takes effect on 1 April 20221. Investec's estimate of a further cap increase in October 2022 had not been confirmed by any decision at the time of the release1.