Cornwall Insight has forecast the July to September 2025 Default Tariff Cap at £1,756.02 a year for a typical dual fuel direct debit customer, published on 1 July 20251. The forecast follows Ofgem's announcement of the April to June 2025 cap at £1,849 a year, a 6% increase from January's £1,738 and the third consecutive rise1.
The forecast splits the total between electricity and gas. Electricity for a household using 2,700 kWh a year is put at £882.16, with a standing charge of 0.55 pounds a day and a unit cost of 25.20 pence per kWh. Gas for a household using 11,500 kWh a year is put at £873.87, with a standing charge of 0.30 pounds a day and a unit cost of 6.65 pence per kWh1. These consumption figures are Ofgem's Typical Domestic Consumption Values1.
The forecast is not final. Cornwall Insight states that "given the high levels of volatility in the market and the ongoing consultations from Ofgem on the non-wholesale elements of the cap, it is extremely likely that forecasts will change multiple times before the July cap is set in three months"1. The forecast attributes the expected fall to a dip in the energy market as US-Russia talks on a potential end to the Ukraine war continue, though it notes the level remains hundreds of pounds above pre-crisis summer cap levels1.
Dr Craig Lowrey, Principal Consultant at Cornwall Insight, said:
"While bills are currently expected to dip slightly in July, we are talking by a few pounds, not the meaningful drop households will be hoping for."
The forecast also refers to Ofgem's consultation on a zero standing charge variant, announced the week before publication1. The outcome of that consultation is not reported in the source.
Why it matters for households
The forecast figure is a national average for a typical dual fuel direct debit household, not a cap on any individual bill. A household using more or less than 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas will pay more or less than £1,756.021. The standing charge is paid regardless of how much energy is used, so it affects a home's energy bills and the price cap position independently of consumption.
The forecast points to a fall of a few pounds rather than a meaningful drop, in Cornwall Insight's words1. For a household's energy independence, the forecast does not change the underlying exposure: the source states that the UK's reliance on imported gas and a wholesale power market driven by marginal gas costs leaves it particularly vulnerable to international wholesale market fluctuations compared with nations meeting more of their demand from indigenous sources1. The forecast also notes that reducing reliance on imported gas through renewables is expected to take many years1.
The forecast is a projection, not a confirmed cap level. The confirmed July to September cap, and the rates that apply by payment method, have not been reported at this date. Households on standard credit or prepayment pay different rates from the direct debit figures quoted here.
What happens next
Ofgem is due to set the July to September 2025 cap in three months from the forecast's publication, according to Cornwall Insight1. The forecast is expected to change multiple times before then1. Ofgem's consultation on a zero standing charge variant was announced the week before the forecast and remains ongoing1.
Sources1 cited
- Households hit with third price cap rise but bills may ease in July - Cornwall Insight, cornwall-insight.com