Cornwall Insight forecasts issued on 28 June 2024 predict that the Ofgem price cap will rise by over £150 to £1,724 from October 2024, according to analysis published by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) on 1 July 20241. The forecast follows the reduction that took effect at the start of July, which ECIU put at a saving of just £17 for the average household over the summer1.
The summer cut is small because it falls in the three months when households use least energy: about 20% of annual electricity consumption and less than 10% of annual gas consumption1. Prices this summer remain around 40% higher than before the gas crisis1. The forecast October level of £1,724 would be 50% above the pre-crisis average of around £1,150 a year1. ECIU says bills are expected to stay near that level until October 2025, meaning households could pay almost £600 more over the 12 months from October, the fourth year of the gas crisis1.
"Monday's reduction in the price cap offers only small and temporary relief for households, saving the average household just £17 this summer"
Older figures from the same consultancy put the picture differently. Sunsave, writing about the April 2024 cap, reported that Cornwall Insight expected a 13% fall to £1,463 in July and then a 4% rise in October, describing stability around the £1,500 to £1,700 level2. That article was last updated on 16 January 2025 and does not carry the £1,724 October figure2. The two accounts of the October direction agree on a rise; they differ on the level.
ECIU also sets out how the forecast falls on homes with poor energy efficiency1:
| Home | Cost over 12 months from October | Difference from a typical home |
|---|---|---|
| Typical home | £1,724 | - |
| EPC E | £2,060 | £300 more |
| EPC F | £2,250 | Almost £500 more |
Upgrading an EPC E home to EPC C would cut bills by £440 a year under prices expected this coming winter, and an EPC F home by £640, ECIU says1. It adds that some households have been buying less energy than they need because of high prices, with potential implications for health, and cites government data showing households used 15% less gas and 10% less electricity in 2022 than before the gas crisis1.
Why it matters for households
The cap sets the maximum a supplier can charge per unit of gas and electricity and per day of standing charge on a default tariff, so a forecast rise of this size points to higher unit costs from October, in the months when heating demand begins. The ECIU figures show the gap between a well-insulated home and a poorly rated one widening under winter prices, which is the part of a household's energy independence that does not depend on international markets. The wider argument made by ECIU is that the UK's reliance on gas for electricity generation and heating leaves bills exposed to wholesale prices set abroad1. The price cap applies to default tariffs in Great Britain; separate arrangements apply in Northern Ireland, where coverage differs.
What happens next
Ofgem is expected to confirm the October to December cap level in late August 2024, though the sources do not give a confirmation date. ECIU expects bills to remain near the forecast level until October 20251.