In October 2023 the government clarified that heat pumps and heat networks will be the primary low-carbon technology for decarbonising home heating over the next decade and will play a key role in all pathways to 20501. The clarification followed the Heat and Buildings Strategy published in October 2021, which set the ambition to end the installation of new fossil fuel boilers by 2035 and committed to growing the heat pump supply chain to a minimum market capacity of 600,000 installations per year by 20281.
The same month, the National Infrastructure Commission, which advises the government on major long-term infrastructure challenges, recommended that the government should not support hydrogen for home heating1. The government maintains that it needs to establish the evidence base before taking decisions on hydrogen, but has also stated that no one should hold back on installing a heat pump or connecting to a heat network on the basis that hydrogen might be an option later1. A decision on the future role of hydrogen in home heating is due in 20261.
The National Audit Office, in a March 2024 report, said aspects of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero's overall pathway remain unclear, particularly while the role of hydrogen is determined, and that uncertainty could hamper progress and drive up costs while consumers and businesses wait for further clarity1.
"In October 2023, the government clarified that heat pumps and heat networks will be the primary low-carbon technology for decarbonising home heating over the next decade"
Heating the UK's 28 million homes accounted for 18% of all UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, the most recent year for which data were available, with burning natural gas the main source1. The government has committed £6.6 billion from 2021-22 to 2024-25 for schemes to improve energy efficiency and install low-carbon heating, and an additional £6 billion from 2025-26 to 2027-282.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant, from October 2023 | £7,500 per household in England and Wales2 |
| Previous grant, May 2022 to September 2023 | £5,000 to £6,0002 |
| Average heat pump cost | Around £11,6002 |
| Typical new gas boiler cost | £2,500 to £3,0002 |
| Heat pumps funded through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, May 2022 to December 2023 | Nearly 18,900, less than 40% of the 50,000 expected2 |
The Committee of Public Accounts reported in May 2024 that installation costs reduced by up to 6% between 2021 and 2023, to £11,287, and that heat pumps are more expensive to run than boilers because electricity costs more than gas2. It said DESNZ had delayed plans to rebalance the cost of electricity and gas by nearly two years2. The committee also said an estimated 20 per cent of homes might be exempt from the government's plans to phase out new fossil fuel boilers in 2035, including those requiring energy efficiency upgrades or lacking space for a heat pump, such as densely populated urban areas and blocks of flats2.
Why it matters for households
The confirmation that heat pumps and heat networks are the primary route gives households a clearer signal about the technology the government expects to replace gas boilers, though the future role of hydrogen remains undecided until 20261. For a home's energy independence, the shift moves heating away from a gas connection and towards electricity, or towards a shared heat network where a heat pump is not practical1. The cost gap is the central practical issue: an average heat pump is around four times the price of a gas boiler, and running costs are higher while electricity is more expensive than gas2. The committee said it was concerned that most households receiving the £7,500 grant might be from more affluent groups, and that DESNZ is evaluating uptake among different socio-economic groups, with interim results due in the second half of 20242. The National Audit Office said DESNZ's progress with encouraging households to install heat pumps has been slower than planned because costs remain high and public awareness remains low1.
What happens next
DESNZ is due to make strategic decisions on the future role of hydrogen in home heating in 20261. The committee recommended that DESNZ set out by end-December 2024 which types of properties and regions it does not expect to be suitable for a heat pump and what alternative low-carbon technologies are available to them2. It also recommended that DESNZ develop a mechanism for collecting and monitoring data on heat pump installations across all households in England and publish this data each quarter, by end-December 2024 at the latest2. The government has two months to respond to the committee's report2.
Sources2 cited
- Decarbonising home heating - NAO report, nao.org.uk
- Decarbonising home heating - Committee of Public Accounts, publications.parliament.uk