National Energy Action (NEA) said on 15 March 2023 that 7.5 million UK households will be in fuel poverty, up from 6.7 million, following the Budget measures announced that day1. The charity's chief executive, Adam Scorer, said the Energy Price Guarantee had been extended at its current level, keeping the average annual bill at around £2,500, but that the end of the Energy Bill Support Scheme would leave households £67 a month worse off1.
"But, the Energy Bill Support Scheme has ended, meaning households will be £67 a month worse off. Energy bills from April will be higher than they've ever been during the crisis."
Scorer also noted that prepayment customers will no longer be charged more to receive their energy than direct debit customers, something the charity said it had long campaigned for1. The forecast of 7.5 million households in fuel poverty is NEA's own estimate, published in its Budget reaction; no government figure for the same period has been reported1.
The two changes move household costs in opposite directions. The Energy Price Guarantee caps the unit cost of energy, so extending it at the current level holds the average annual bill at around £2,5001. The Energy Bill Support Scheme was a separate payment to households, and its closure removes £67 a month from the same budgets1. NEA's assessment is that the net effect is a rise in fuel poverty, from 6.7 million to 7.5 million households1.
| Measure | Change from April 2023 | Effect on households |
|---|---|---|
| Energy Price Guarantee | Extended at current level | Average annual bill around £2,5001 |
| Energy Bill Support Scheme | Ended | Households £67 a month worse off1 |
| Prepayment charges | No longer higher than direct debit | Prepayment customers no longer charged more1 |
Why it matters for households
Fuel poverty is measured by whether a household can afford to heat its home to an adequate standard, and the guide to who it affects and how it is measured sets out the definitions behind that count. NEA's forecast means the number of households in that position is expected to rise from 6.7 million to 7.5 million1. For a household, the practical effect is that the cost of a warm and safe home remains out of reach, as NEA put it1. The end of the £67 monthly payment is a direct reduction in income available for energy, arriving at the same time as bills that NEA says will be higher than at any point during the crisis1. The change to prepayment charges removes a longstanding price penalty for households that pay for energy in advance, which affects how much those households pay for the same units of energy as direct debit customers1.
Energy independence at household level depends on what a home can afford to run and how much of its cost it can control. A capped unit price limits how high a bill can rise, but it does not reduce the underlying cost of the energy used. A support payment that ends removes a fixed contribution to that cost. NEA's figures indicate that, taken together, the two measures leave more households unable to meet the cost of heating their homes than before1. Households with medical equipment or other essential electricity needs face the same price changes on top of specific support arrangements that are separate from the Energy Bill Support Scheme1.
What happens next
The Energy Price Guarantee extension and the end of the Energy Bill Support Scheme both take effect from April 20231. NEA has not set out further dated steps in this announcement. No government response to NEA's 7.5 million forecast has been reported1.