The End Fuel Poverty Coalition said that, one week on from the Chancellor's mini-Budget, energy bills were set to rise by 64 per cent compared with the previous winter, and that the measures announced would leave around seven million households in fuel poverty1. The coalition, which campaigns on fuel poverty, published its assessment in September 2022, ahead of the 1 October change in the price cap1.
The group's figures put the average household bill at GBP1,277 in winter 2021/22, rising to GBP2,100 for winter 2022/23 once support promised so far is counted. For some of the most vulnerable households, the increase is limited to an average bill of GBP1,700 this winter, which the coalition said still represents a 33 per cent rise year on year. It noted that the Energy Price Guarantee caps the unit cost of energy, not the total bill1.
On fuel poverty, the coalition estimated 4.6 million UK households were in fuel poverty in winter 2021/22, rising to 6.99 million in winter 2022/231. Separate analysis by Age UK, cited by the coalition, found that from October 2022 around three in ten older households in England would be living in fuel poverty, including 1.3 million lower income older households1.
The coalition said the small print of the Chancellor's Plan for Growth contained an expansion of the Energy Company Obligation, which requires energy companies to install energy saving measures in fuel poor homes, with a GBP1bn boost over three years from next April. The funding is targeted at the most vulnerable and the least efficient homes in lower council tax bands. The government also said it would imminently open applications for up to GBP2.1 billion over two years to support local authorities, housing associations, schools and hospitals to invest in energy efficiency and renewable heating1. The coalition also noted an end to the effective ban on building onshore wind in England1.
"Even with the measures pledged by the Government so far, there is now just a week to go until energy bills increase by 64% compared to last winter."
Experts at E3G, quoted by the coalition, estimated the energy efficiency funding was about a fifth of the amount needed to be spent on green building measures, and said the Home Upgrade Grant manifesto pledge remained GBP1.4 billion short of what should have been committed to 20251.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Average household bill, winter 2021/22 | GBP1,277 |
| Average household bill, winter 2022/23, with support promised so far | GBP2,100 |
| Average bill for some of the most vulnerable households this winter | GBP1,700 |
| Rise against winter 2021/22 for those households | 33 per cent |
| Households in fuel poverty, winter 2021/22 | 4.6 million |
| Households in fuel poverty, winter 2022/23 (forecast) | 6.99 million |
Why it matters for households
The 64 per cent figure describes the movement in bills between one winter and the next, before the Energy Price Guarantee is applied to unit rates. Because the guarantee caps the unit cost of energy rather than the total bill, a household's standing charges and the amount of gas and electricity it uses still determine what it pays, so the total can exceed the capped average1. The coalition also pointed to standing charges and the forced move of some customers onto prepayment meters as sources of additional hardship1.
For a home's energy independence, the measures described are split between immediate bill support and longer term reductions in how much energy a property needs. The Energy Company Obligation funding goes to energy saving measures in fuel poor homes, which lowers consumption rather than the price of a unit, while the local authority and public sector funding covers energy efficiency and renewable heating1. The coalition's position is that the ECO expansion alone cannot change the resilience of UK households to energy price shocks now or in future1. The policy costs and levies that sit on bills, and the wholesale prices behind them, are set out in more detail elsewhere on the site.
What happens next
The Energy Company Obligation expansion is due to start next April, running for three years with a GBP1bn boost1. Applications for up to GBP2.1 billion over two years for local authorities, housing associations, schools and hospitals were described as opening imminently, with no date given1. The coalition said the Home Upgrade Grant remained GBP1.4 billion short of what should have been committed to 20251. No further dates for the bill support measures were reported1.
Sources1 cited
- Mini-Budget minimal on help for those in fuel poverty - End Fuel Poverty Coalition, endfuelpoverty.org.uk