Nesta, a research and innovation foundation, published analysis on 25 February 2026 setting out that approximately 110,000 heat pumps and other low-carbon heating systems will need to be installed in Scotland over the next Scottish Parliament, running from May 2026 to May 20311. The analysis was published the same day the Climate Change Committee (CCC) published a report on Scotland's progress against its emissions reduction targets, which Nesta says found current plans for heat pump rollout "slow, unambitious" and reliant on a "delay and catch up" approach1.
Nesta states the 110,000 figure is based on the CCC's balanced pathway for Scotland, published in its Scotland's Carbon Budgets advice in May 20251. It says this would triple the number of heat pumps in Scotland1. By contrast, Nesta's analysis of the pathway for residential buildings in the Scottish Government's draft Climate Change Plan found it implies the equivalent of just 30,000 heat pump installs might be targeted during the same period1.
The figures sit against recent installation activity. Just under 30,000 cumulative MCS (Microgeneration Certification Scheme) certified heat pump installations were recorded in Scotland between May 2021 and January 2026, the current Scottish Parliament term1.
Robin Parker, sustainable future mission manager at Nesta Scotland, said in response to the CCC report:
"Scotland has a golden opportunity to put its plentiful renewable energy from wind and water to use for heating homes, through heat pumps and other efficient low carbon technology. After the election, the new government should ensure that existing grant schemes for heat pump installations will continue and bring forward an ambitious Heat in Buildings Bill that accelerates heat pump installations. Hand-in-hand with this, the UK Government must look to take action to reduce the cost of electricity."
| Measure | Installations over May 2026 to May 2031 |
|---|---|
| Nesta analysis, based on CCC balanced pathway | Approximately 110,000 |
| Draft Climate Change Plan pathway for residential buildings | As few as 30,000 |
| MCS certified installations, May 2021 to January 2026 | Just under 30,000 |
Why it matters for households
The numbers describe the pace of change in how Scottish homes are heated, and the gap between two published pathways is wide. Scotland's target for renewable heating installations is the framework the next Parliament will be measured against, and the analysis indicates the current draft plan implies a far slower rate of installation than the CCC pathway. For a household, the practical questions are whether grant support continues, whether an air-to-water heat pump or another low carbon system becomes the default replacement at the point a boiler fails, and what electricity costs relative to gas. Nesta states the UK Government must look to take action to reduce the cost of electricity, which is the running cost side of that calculation1. How many homes in Scotland already use renewable or low carbon heating is set out in the installation numbers, and the technology itself is covered in the heat pumps guide.
What happens next
The Scottish Parliament election is due in May 2026, and Nesta states the final version of the Climate Change Plan should commit to the 110,000 target, and that all political parties should do so ahead of the election1. Nesta also states the new government should continue existing grant schemes for heat pump installations and bring forward a Heat in Buildings Bill1. No dates for a final Climate Change Plan or a Heat in Buildings Bill are given in the material published by Nesta1.