The Scottish Government has set out proposals to require the installation of low or zero emissions heating systems in existing buildings from 2025, with a backstop date of 2045, under its finalised Heat in Buildings Strategy. The commitment is contained in the Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (BRIA) that accompanies the strategy, published in November 20211. The document states that ministers "will bring forward proposals to require installation of low or zero emissions heating systems in existing buildings from 2025, with a backstop date of 2045"1. The regulatory framework is subject to consultation and to limits on devolved competence1.
"we will bring forward proposals to require installation of low or zero emissions heating systems in existing buildings from 2025, with a backstop date of 2045"
The scale of change implied is set out in the same document. Around 50% of Scottish homes, or over 1 million households, will need to convert to zero emissions heating systems by 2030 to meet interim statutory targets1. Currently around 3,000 renewable heating systems are installed in Scottish homes each year, primarily heat pumps with smaller numbers of biomass and solar thermal installations1. Zero emissions heat installations must scale up to at least 124,000 systems between 2021 and 2026, with the installation rate expected to peak at over 200,000 new systems per annum in the late-2020s1.
The document gives the current fuel mix for Scottish homes. 81% use mains gas, 5% use heating oil and a further 2% use LPG or solid mineral fuels; together these high carbon fuels account for an estimated 88% of the Scottish residential fuel mix1. Only around 11% of households currently have a renewable or very low emissions heating system, such as a heat pump, biomass boiler or electric storage heating1. An estimated 34,000 homes are connected to heat networks, though these are predominantly fuelled by gas and not considered renewable or zero emissions1.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Homes using mains gas | 81% |
| Homes using heating oil | 5% |
| Homes using LPG or solid mineral fuels | 2% |
| Homes with renewable or very low emissions heating | around 11% |
| Homes needing conversion to zero emissions heating by 2030 | around 50%, over 1 million households |
| Renewable heating systems installed per year | around 3,000 |
The strategy commits an ambitious programme of at least £1.8 billion investment over the course of the Parliament, and the BRIA estimates the total cost of converting Scotland's building stock to zero emissions by 2045 at in the region of £33 billion1. Emissions from the buildings sector fell from 10.41 MtCO2e in 2013 to 9.38 MtCO2e in 2019, but the sector's share of total emissions rose slightly from 18.1% to 19.6% over the same period1. Scotland's statutory framework includes a target for net zero emissions by 2045 and interim targets of 75% and 90% reductions by 2030 and 2040 respectively1.
Why it matters for households
For a household, the proposal points to a future in which the building regulations for heating systems that apply when work is done on an existing home could require a low or zero emissions system rather than a like-for-like fossil fuel boiler. The 2025 start date and 2045 backstop are proposals, not settled law, and the document says the regulatory framework is subject to consultation and to limits on devolved competence1. The practical effect on any individual home therefore depends on rules that have not yet been finalised.
The figures show how far the housing stock is from that position. With 88% of the residential fuel mix made up of high carbon fuels and only around 11% of households on renewable or very low emissions heating, the transition described is a change of heating source for the great majority of homes1. That bears directly on home heating and energy independence, because a home's exposure to a single delivered fuel, whether mains gas or heating oil, is what the strategy's conversion targets are intended to reduce.
The document also links the transition to fuel poverty. The Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act 2019 requires that by 2040 no more than 5% and 1% of all households should suffer from fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty respectively, with a median fuel poverty gap of no more than £250 in 2015 prices1. In 2019, 24.6% of households were in fuel poverty, 12.4% in extreme fuel poverty, and the median gap was £7001. Poor energy efficiency is one of four main drivers of fuel poverty identified in the document, alongside low household income, high energy prices and how energy is used in the home1. 40% of households in the least efficient properties, rated EPC F or G, were in fuel poverty in 2019, compared with 20% of those in B or C rated properties1.
What happens next
The BRIA sets out several dated steps. A new Heat in Buildings Supply Chain Delivery Plan was to be developed by Summer 20221. In 2022/23, the current arrangements were to be replaced with a grant scheme to support energy efficiency and zero emissions heat improvements1. The document also states that the Scottish Government would set out its approach to eradicating fuel poverty in the Fuel Poverty Strategy by the end of 20211. The strategy's proposals for regulation of existing buildings from 2025 remain subject to consultation and to limits on devolved competence1.