National Energy Action (NEA) said its figures show 5.6 million UK households will be in fuel poverty from 1 July 2024, the day the energy price cap changed1. The charity published the estimate on 1 July, the same day the cap took effect1.
The cap fell by 7 per cent for the summer period, making the typical bill £1,568 a year1. NEA said July to September is a time when households use only around 20 per cent of the energy they need in their homes for the rest of the year, and that the price cap is set to rise again in October, when more energy is used1.
Adam Scorer, chief executive of NEA, said the summer reduction would be overtaken by the autumn increase1:
"Any drop in energy bills is welcome, but modest falls in summer look set to be wiped out by bigger rises in Autumn when people will need to put the heating back on."
Scorer added that the cost of energy remains an unaffordable luxury for many of the poorest, that record levels of energy debt are crushing households, and that there is no adequate response1. He said whoever is in power on 5 July inherits a fuel poverty crisis causing misery, despair, ill health and early death, and that a new government will need a new plan, including social tariffs to make energy affordable, Help to Repay programmes to reduce the debt burden, and energy efficiency schemes to build fuel poverty out of the homes of the most vulnerable1.
The NEA release does not set out how fuel poverty is defined for its 5.6 million figure, nor a regional or national breakdown of the households affected. Those details have not been reported in the material published on 1 July1.
Why it matters for households
Fuel poverty is measured against the cost of heating a home to an adequate standard, so the headline cap figure and the number of households in fuel poverty move for different reasons. A 7 per cent fall in the cap lowers the typical annual bill to £1,568, but NEA's point is about timing: the summer quarter accounts for roughly a fifth of annual home energy use, so a lower cap in those months delivers a smaller cash saving than the same percentage change would in winter1. The October increase, when heating demand returns, falls on the period when consumption is highest1.
For a household's energy independence, the practical variables are the unit rate and standing charge set under the cap, the amount of energy the home actually uses, and how well the building retains heat. NEA's call for energy efficiency schemes points to the third of those: a home that needs less energy to stay warm is less exposed to cap changes in either direction1. The charity also cites record levels of energy debt, which affects households carrying arrears into the next cap period1.
What happens next
The price cap is set to rise again in October, when households start to use more energy, according to NEA1. The general election takes place on 5 July, and NEA states that whoever is in power on that date inherits the fuel poverty crisis1. No further dates or figures for the October cap have been reported1.