The Welsh Government published a children's rights impact assessment for the new Warm Homes Programme on 8 March 20241. The programme will take over from Nest as the government's primary mechanism to tackle fuel poverty in Wales1.
The assessment sets out how the scheme will differ from Nest. Eligibility criteria are being extended to include those on low incomes as well as benefits, and gas boiler replacements will move to be the exception rather than the default, with the programme instead favouring repair of fossil fuel assets and a shift towards low carbon heating1. The focus on "worst first" and "fabric first" remains unchanged, to ensure those who are worst off and in the poorest quality homes in the private rented and owner-occupied sectors are supported1. The aim is to improve homes by one EPC band or to Band E, whichever is higher, which enables EPC G homes to be uplifted by two bands1.
"The new Warm Homes Programme (WHP) will take over from Nest as the Welsh Government's primary mechanism to tackle fuel poverty."
The assessment draws on 2021 Welsh Government fuel poverty data, the most recent published at the time. It records that 14% of all households (196,000) and vulnerable households (169,000) were living in fuel poverty, and that 3% of all households (38,000) were in severe fuel poverty while 11% (153,000) were at risk of fuel poverty1. Among households with children, 4% of households with two adults and children were in fuel poverty; two-adult households with children accounted for 5% and single parent households 6%1. Since 2021, estimates suggest rates of fuel poverty could have risen as high as 45% in April 20221.
Households with children in Wales account for 26.5% of all households, and houses with children that are in fuel poverty account for 11% of the fuel poor population1. The assessment states that children in ethnic minority households are more likely to be in fuel poor households, noting that from 2009 to 2021 the percentage of ethnic minority households in fuel poverty fell from 39.4% to 19.1%, while the percentage of white households fell from 20.3% to 12.6%1.
| Group | Fuel poverty rate |
|---|---|
| All households | 14% (196,000) |
| Vulnerable households | 169,000 |
| Severe fuel poverty | 3% (38,000) |
| At risk of fuel poverty | 11% (153,000) |
| Two adults and children | 4% |
| Two-adult household with children | 5% |
| Single parent households | 6% |
The assessment identifies groups that may benefit less. Gypsies, Roma and Travellers children, and children living in park homes and other non-standard accommodation, may be less likely to benefit as the measures available are best suited for standard dwellings, such as loft insulation and heat pumps1. All families are eligible for advice1. On safeguarding, the assessment states that where works are required on a household with children, contractors must be subjected to sufficient checks, though this is unlikely to include an enhanced DBS check as contractors are not expected to be eligible, not delivering regulated activity or operating in regulated premises1.
Why it matters for households
The assessment confirms the shape of support that will replace Nest and the Warm Homes Programme in Wales. Advice will be available to all households across Wales, while retrofit measures are directed at eligible homes, with the stated aim of improving a property by one EPC band or to Band E, whichever is higher1. For a household in a cold, hard-to-heat home, that is the difference between a property that is expensive to run and one that is less so, and it bears directly on how far a home can be run on its own resources rather than on imported energy at whatever price the market sets.
The change to boiler replacement matters for any household weighing up a heating upgrade. Under the new programme, replacing a gas boiler becomes the exception rather than the default, with repair of existing fossil fuel assets and a shift to low carbon heating favoured instead1. Eligibility is also broader than under Nest, reaching low income households as well as those on benefits1. The assessment does not set out income thresholds; those have not been reported here. Households in Wales can compare the routes through Nest Wales vs the Warm Homes: Local Grant, and the wider Warm Homes Plan sets the UK-level context. Eligibility detail for the successor scheme sits under Warm Homes: Local Grant eligibility and income limits, and the grants and schemes hub collects the current offers.
What happens next
The assessment gives no start date for the new programme, no launch timetable and no confirmation of when Nest will close to new applicants. Those have not been reported. The document was first published on 8 March 20241.