E3G, an independent climate change think tank, published an assessment of the UK government's response to the gas crisis on 28 September 2023, concluding that homes remain exposed to future price shocks.
The analysis states that the government has failed to act on long-term measures. Ofgem's energy price cap fell slightly in autumn 2023 to £1,923 per year, but E3G says bills remain close to double their level before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and that one in three households in England will see higher bills this winter than last. Energy debt and arrears have risen by more than 107% over the last five years, it adds.
"Our analysis shows the UK has failed to enact many of the long-term solutions to permanently lower exposure to volatile international gas markets, boost energy security and reduce long-term pressures on the public purse."
The report puts the cost of the government's response to gas price spikes at £78.2 billion across 2022-23 and 2023-24. It cites figures from other bodies on the consequences of current policy: the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit's estimate that the Prime Minister's pledge to "never" increase energy efficiency standards could cost households £8 billion in higher bills over the next decade, and RenewableUK's analysis that failing to contract new offshore wind means missing the opportunity to power 8 million homes and save consumers £2 billion a year compared with electricity from gas.
E3G says a "social tariff", which would give discounted price plans to households struggling to afford energy, is looking unlikely, and that the government has backtracked on promises to consider comprehensive targeted bill support. Its recommendations, framed around the Autumn Budget, are:
| Area | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Household bills | Introduce a social tariff from next April, with extra financial support for vulnerable households this winter |
| Gas demand | Boost delivery under existing retrofit schemes and incentivise landlords with a tax offset and long-term regulatory certainty |
| Supply | More support for domestic renewables, remove planning barriers, address grid capacity and access, and progress market reforms |
The report also notes that the International Energy Agency has warned Europe could face a difficult winter if Russia cuts remaining gas supplies.
Why it matters for households
The assessment frames household exposure to gas prices as a structural problem rather than a one-off event. Because the UK's energy supply remains tied to international gas markets, the price cap can fall while bills stay far above their pre-2022 level, and E3G expects a third of households in England to pay more this winter than last. Its argument is that energy efficiency, heat pumps and domestic renewables reduce the volume of gas a home and the grid need to buy, which lowers exposure to price spikes rather than merely cushioning them. The report does not quantify the effect of any single measure on an individual household bill, and no social tariff has been announced; the regulator sets the cap, while government policy determines retrofit schemes and renewables auctions.
What happens next
E3G's recommendations are timed to the Autumn Budget, and it calls for a social tariff to start from next April. No government decision on a social tariff, retrofit funding or the next renewables auction had been reported at the time of publication.