The Scottish Government published a draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan (ESJTP) for consultation in January 2023, according to a business and regulatory impact assessment published on 28 November 2023 in support of consultation on proposals for a Heat in Buildings Bill1. The draft ESJTP set out key ambitions for Scotland's energy future, including the need to transform the way homes, workplaces, communities and other public buildings are heated1.
The impact assessment describes the scale of the task. It states that 81% of Scottish homes use mains gas, 5% use heating oil and a further 2% use LPG or solid mineral fuels, and that together these high carbon fuels account for an estimated 88% of the Scottish residential fuel mix1. Only around 11% of households currently have a renewable or very low emissions heating system, such as a heat pump, biomass boiler or electric storage heating1. Over half of non-domestic properties already use low or zero emissions sources, mainly electricity1.
Emissions from buildings fell from 10.10 MtCO2e in 2013 to 9.03 MtCO2e in 2021, a reduction of around 11%, but because emissions across the economy fell faster, particularly in energy supply, the share of total emissions from buildings rose from 18% in 2013 to 22% in 20211.
The document sets the strategy against Scotland's statutory climate targets: net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045, with interim reductions of 75% by 2030 and 90% by 2040 under the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019, and a 2032 target of 78%1. It also cites the Bute House Agreement commitment to phase out the need to install new or replacement fossil fuel boilers in off gas areas from 2025 and in on gas areas from 2030, subject to technological developments and decisions by the UK Government in reserved areas1.
"The Draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan ( ESJTP ) published for consultation in January 2023, provided an update to the Scottish Energy Strategy position statement which was published in 2021"
On fuel poverty, the assessment states that from April to June 2023 there were around 920,000 fuel poor households in Scotland, 37% of all households, an increase of 60,000 from estimates for the winter, and that the withdrawal of the £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme from April 2023 was the main driver behind the increase1. The 2040 fuel poverty targets require that no more than 5% of households are fuel poor and no more than 1% are in extreme fuel poverty1.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Scottish homes using mains gas | 81% |
| Homes using heating oil | 5% |
| Homes using LPG or solid mineral fuels | 2% |
| Share of residential fuel mix from these fuels | 88% |
| Households with renewable or very low emissions heating | around 11% |
| Fuel poor households, April to June 2023 | around 920,000 (37%) |
Why it matters for households
The strategy concerns the fuel that heats most Scottish homes. With 81% of homes on mains gas and only around 11% using a renewable or very low emissions heating system, the document describes a housing stock whose heating is, in its words, not compatible with the net zero target1. For a household, the practical questions raised by the consultation are what replaces a gas boiler, when, and at what cost, and how the Home Energy Scotland Grant and Loan Scheme and energy efficiency standards interact with any future regulation. The assessment also links heating policy to fuel poverty, noting the 37% fuel poverty rate recorded for April to June 2023 and the statutory 2040 targets1. The wider framework of devolved powers is set out in Energy and Buildings Policy in Scotland, and the statutory targets in Scotland's Climate Targets and What They Mean for Homes.
What happens next
The impact assessment was published on 28 November 2023 alongside consultation on proposals for a Heat in Buildings Bill1. The assessment states that the consultation brings together and seeks views on proposals which could inform the legislative framework required to deliver the commitments1. No further dates for the ESJTP or the Bill are given in the document.