The chief executive of Ofgem, Jonathan Brearley, told MPs on 24 May 2022 that the price cap on household energy bills is likely to rise to about £2,800 in October1. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, an independent research body, reported his evidence to Parliament the same day and described the likely outcome as an increase of about £8001.
The figure is a forecast rather than a confirmed cap level. The ECIU's note on the evidence carries the headline "Energy bills likely to rise by £800 in October, says Ofgem chief"1. No further breakdown of the £2,800 figure, and no confirmation of the level from Ofgem itself, appears in the material published that day1.
The ECIU's Senior Analyst, Jess Ralston, responded to the evidence by arguing that insulation is the durable route to lower bills:
"Insulation is the only way to permanently bring down bills and could start to make a difference for struggling families ahead of this winter."
She also said: "Treasury's objection to greater investment is going to look even more tone-deaf given bills are now set to leap so much higher in October. The gas crisis clearly isn't going away and prioritising insulating both the country and our homes from volatile gas prices and Putin's interference seems even more urgent than ever."1
The cap level in force before October, and the exact size of the increase implied by the £2,800 figure, are not set out in the published material1. The £800 difference is given as an approximation1.
Why it matters for households
The cap limits what a supplier can charge per unit of gas and electricity on a default tariff, so a rise of this size flows through to the standing charges and unit rates that determine a household's bill. A home that uses more gas for heating carries more of the increase than a home that uses less, which is why the make-up of an energy bill matters as much as the headline cap number.
For energy independence, the practical point is exposure. A cap set against wholesale gas prices passes international gas market movements into domestic bills, and the ECIU's argument is that reducing the gas a home needs to buy is the way to cut that exposure permanently1. The history of cap levels and announcement dates shows how often that number has moved.
What happens next
The October cap level is set by Ofgem and had not been confirmed at the time of the evidence1. The ECIU's response refers to support for struggling families ahead of the coming winter, and to a Treasury position on investment in insulation, without setting out any dated decision or scheme1. No date for the formal October announcement is given in the material1.