Nesta, a research and innovation charity, published analysis on 20 January 2026 projecting that a typical household investing in home upgrades under the UK Government's Warm Homes Plan could save £1,000 a year on its energy bill1. The charity modelled annual bills for homes combining solar panels, battery storage and heat pumps against a typical dual-fuel home on a standard tariff with a gas boiler1.
Nesta's figures put the typical dual-fuel household bill at £1,668 at April prices. A home with a heat pump on a time-of-use tariff would pay £1,387, a saving of £281; solar alone with a fixed export tariff would pay £1,047, a saving of £621; solar and a home battery on a time-of-use tariff would pay £919, a saving of £749; a heat pump and solar would pay £721, a saving of £947; and a heat pump, solar and battery together would pay £667, a saving of £1,0011.
| Household type | Tariff | Annual bill (April prices) | Saving vs typical dual fuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dual fuel | Standard variable (price cap) | £1,668 | - |
| Heat pump | Heat pump time of use | £1,387 | £281 |
| Solar | Standard variable plus fixed export | £1,047 | £621 |
| Solar and home battery | Solar and battery time of use | £919 | £749 |
| Heat pump and solar | Heat pump time of use plus fixed export | £721 | £947 |
| Heat pump, solar and home battery | Solar and battery time of use | £667 | £1,001 |
The analysis assumes a medium two to three person, two to three bedroom home consuming 2,700kWh of electricity and 11,500kWh of gas annually, with an equivalent heat pump home using 5,877kWh of electricity and no gas connection. It assumes eight to ten solar panels generating 3,740kWh a year and a 5kWh battery1. Nesta says the changes to energy bills announced in the Budget in November also increase these savings by removing some levies from electricity bills1.
"The UK Government's Warm Homes Plan could save a typical household that invests in home upgrades £1,000 on its energy bill, new analysis from the research and innovation charity Nesta finds"
Under the plan, the government will offer fully funded solar panels and batteries to low income households, while other households will be able to access a new Warm Homes Loan and a subsidy from the Boiler Upgrade Scheme1. Nesta says its estimates reflect typical energy usage behaviour, and that households using battery arbitrage or pass-through tariffs could save more1.
Why it matters for households
The projections rest on combining technologies rather than buying one alone: the largest saving in Nesta's modelling comes from a heat pump, solar and a battery together, and the smallest from a heat pump on its own1. That matters for energy independence because a home generating its own electricity and storing it reduces the amount bought from the grid, and a heat pump removes the gas connection entirely in Nesta's modelled home1. The running costs also depend on tariff design, with time-of-use tariffs and fixed export payments doing much of the work in the figures1. Nesta's assumptions are modelled rather than metered outcomes, and actual performance varies by home; our guide to how heat pumps actually perform in UK homes sets out what measured data shows, and the time-of-use tariff savings guide covers how tariff choice affects running costs.
What happens next
The Warm Homes Plan is being launched, with support for solar, battery and heat pump uptake1. Nesta says it looks forward to the UK government, local authorities and industry working together to deliver the plan in practice1. No start date for the loan scheme, the fully funded solar and battery offer, or the April price cap figure used in the modelling has been reported beyond the April reference in the analysis1.