The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has published official advice that the UK should cut its emissions to 87% below 1990 levels by 2040, under its seventh five-yearly carbon budget1. The budget covers the period from 2038 to 2042 and, for the first time, includes greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation and shipping1. The CCC says the target would keep the UK on track for reaching net-zero by 20501.
Under the advice, emissions would fall from around 400m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2023 to just 107MtCO2e on average across 2038-2042, a reduction of about three-quarters on current levels1. The CCC's "balanced pathway" sets out cuts by sector: surface transport 86%, building heat 72%, industry 78% and the power sector 88%1. By 2040, aviation and agriculture would be the UK's largest emitters1. The committee says electrification is the key to decarbonising the economy, with most vehicles shifting to electric and most homes using heat pumps by the middle of the century, and states there is "no role" for hydrogen heat1. It also points to roles for energy efficiency, such as improved home insulation, and behaviour change1.
The CCC says the transition would have a net cost of around £108bn out to 2050, which is £4bn per year, or less than 0.2% of GDP, and 73% lower than previously thought under its sixth carbon budget advice published in 20201. It says the transition would cut average household energy bills to £700 below today's levels by 2050 and cut household motoring costs by a similar amount1. Carbon Brief reports the CCC's advice as saying the 87% cut would help "cut household costs by £1,400"1.
"The country, in our pathway, does not deindustrialise, so we have just the same amount of industry as today…We do not want the story of decarbonisation to be one of deindustrialisation."
The CCC's advice also recommends that no new properties be connected to the gas grid from 20261. On land use, it notes that land-use emissions are now 10MtCO2e lower than 1990 levels1. The committee says the seventh carbon budget should be met through domestic action "without resorting to international [emissions] credits"1.
Why it matters for households
The advice sets the direction for how homes are heated and powered over the next two decades. The CCC's pathway puts heat pumps, rather than hydrogen, at the centre of home heating, and recommends that no new properties be connected to the gas grid from 20261. For a household, that points to a future in which a home's heat and transport energy increasingly come from electricity rather than the gas grid and petrol or diesel. The CCC frames this as improving energy security by cutting demand for imported fossil fuels, and says it would reduce operating costs and bills1. Its figures put average household energy bills £700 below today's levels by 2050, with a similar cut to motoring costs1. The advice is not itself policy: the CCC does not set policy, and it says it is up to the government to choose its preferred route1. The carbon budgets and net zero framework is the mechanism through which these targets would be legislated. Related standards for new homes are covered in the Future Homes Standard, and the shift away from petrol and diesel cars is covered by the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate.
What happens next
The government must pass legislation setting the level of the seventh carbon budget by no later than 30 June 20261. Previous governments, whether Conservative or Labour, have always followed the CCC's advice on the level of UK carbon budgets, though the government can choose not to do so if it explains why1. The legislation is subject to the affirmative procedure in parliament and must be debated and voted through by both houses1. The CCC's full methodology report will be published on 21 May 2025, alongside its advice to the devolved administrations of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales1.