The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued its first yellow cold weather alert this year for the North East, the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands, according to the fuel poverty charity National Energy Action (NEA). The alert lasts until 21 November1.
NEA said Arctic air was due to move in over the weekend, and that the cold spell would force low-income and vulnerable households to spend more to keep their homes warm, with millions "being forced to ration their heating to dangerous levels"1. The charity estimates that 6 million UK households are in fuel poverty1.
The alert comes ahead of two energy announcements. Ofgem will announce the level of the energy price cap from January on Friday 22 November, and Cornwall Insight is expected to give its final forecast for the price cap period from January to the end of March on Monday1. The cap is currently set at £1,717 per year for a typical household1.
Peter Smith, NEA Director of Policy and Advocacy, said:
"With energy bills rising since October and far less support available nationally this winter, millions of people are already rationing their energy use to dangerous levels or getting deeper into debt trying to keep warm. Sadly, even this brief cold spell will be a threat to people's health and worse and will create further extreme hardship for millions of households."
NEA also set out the recognised links between cold homes and ill health. Deaths from coronary thrombosis can peak three days after a cold spell and deaths from respiratory conditions 12 days after, with deaths taking up to 40 days to return to average levels1.
The charity cited 2018 research with Energy Action Scotland into the "Beast from the East" cold spell of 22 February to 3 March 2018. Based on ONS data, it said there were as many as 1,724 extra deaths in England alone, and possibly as high as 2,000 across the UK. It estimated up to 570 of the excess deaths were attributable to respiratory diseases, 690 to cardiovascular diseases, and that 520 vulnerable people may have died in cold homes. It also cited a prediction of 37,020 excess winter deaths across the UK1.
Why it matters for households
A cold weather alert is a health warning, not an energy notice, but the two are linked in practice. The alert period coincides with the point in the year when heating demand rises while the energy price cap for the following quarter has not yet been confirmed. The current cap level of £1,717 a year for a typical household is a limit on unit rates and standing charges, not a cap on what any individual household pays, so a colder week generally means a higher bill for the same home.
For a household trying to keep costs down, the practical effect of a cold spell is a trade-off between warmth and spend. NEA's figures on temperature thresholds describe what happens to the body as indoor temperatures fall. Households on prepayment meters face an additional constraint, because heating stops when credit runs out. The Ofgem price cap announcement on 22 November will set the default tariff level for January to March, and the Cornwall Insight forecast on Monday gives an early indication of its direction.
What happens next
Cornwall Insight is expected to publish its final forecast for the January to March price cap period on Monday. Ofgem will announce the cap level on Friday 22 November. National Energy Action's Fuel Poverty Awareness Day takes place on Wednesday 27 November1.