New estimates published by the End Fuel Poverty Coalition put the cost to the NHS of treating pensioners in cold, damp homes at more than £169m a year, attributing that figure to the 262,000 pensioners it expects to live in such conditions because of the decision to axe winter fuel payments1.
The analysis, first reported in the Daily Express on 29 or 30 September 2024, estimates the total NHS cost of treating pensioners in cold, damp homes may reach at least £1.5bn a year, with around 2.3m older people living in poor housing conditions1. The coalition says those missing out on Winter Fuel Payments this year include 1.2m pensioners in absolute poverty and 1.6m disabled older people1.
The figures arrive as energy bills are set to increase for all households by 10% from 1 October, leaving the average household paying around 65% more for its energy than in winter 2020/211. Energy debt has reached £3.7bn according to Ofgem figures published the previous week1. The coalition states that the average household will have paid more than £2,500 extra for its energy than if the country had not been so exposed to volatile energy markets1.
The coalition's spokesperson said:
"For older people who previously received the winter fuel payment, but will no longer do so under the Chancellor's new rules, the situation is even worse."
The coalition also said the long term way to reduce NHS costs from cold damp homes is to improve insulation and ventilation of buildings and stabilise energy costs by moving away from volatile gas prices, adding that until government plans in these areas are fully implemented, vulnerable households will continue to need financial support1.
Other organisations gave estimates alongside the analysis. Uswitch.com estimates 752,000 older people will not use heating at all this winter, and National Energy Action has calculated that around half of households will be rationing their energy use1. Jan Shortt, general secretary of the National Pensioners Convention, said living in cold, damp homes heightens the risk of strokes, heart disease and respiratory conditions, and that the risk of overwhelming the NHS in winter is high1. Age UK charity director Caroline Abrahams said she expects more older people to go to hospital this winter as a result1. Morgan Vine, head of policy and influencing at Independent Age, said some older people on low incomes have told the charity they will not turn the heating on at all, or will reduce how much they eat so they can heat their home for a few hours a day1.
Why it matters for households
For a household that has lost the payment, the practical effect is a lower income against a higher unit price from 1 October, at the same time as the wider cost of living pressure described in the analysis1. The coalition's estimate of 262,000 pensioners in cold damp homes is a projection of what that combination produces, and its £169m figure is the share of NHS cost it attributes to that group1. The wider £1.5bn estimate covers all pensioners in poor housing, not only those affected by the payment change1.
For a home's energy independence, the analysis points to the fabric of the building rather than the bill alone. The coalition names insulation and ventilation as the long term route to cutting both NHS costs and exposure to gas prices, and says financial support remains necessary until those plans are fully implemented1. Households on low incomes weighing support options can compare the Warm Home Discount and the Winter Fuel Payment, check who qualifies for the Winter Fuel Payment, and read the site's material on cold homes and health. Homes without a gas connection face a different set of fuels and costs, covered in living off the gas grid.
What happens next
The coalition says vulnerable households will continue to need financial support until the Government fully implements its plans on insulation, ventilation and energy costs1. Age UK's Caroline Abrahams said the Government must do more at the Budget to ensure pensioners can navigate the coming cold months safely1. No date for that Budget, and no figure for any additional support, is given in the material published by the coalition1.
Sources1 cited
- Cold damp homes cost to NHS estimated as energy price cap rises - End Fuel Poverty Coalition, endfuelpoverty.org.uk