The Climate Change Committee (CCC) laid its annual progress report before Parliament on 18 July 2024, assessing the UK's delivery against its carbon budgets and its 2030 target1. The Committee's central finding is that delivery is not keeping pace with ambition.
"Our assessment is that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans."
The UK has committed to cut emissions by 68% against 1990 levels by 2030 under its Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement1. The report confirms the UK met its Third Carbon Budget, covering 2018 to 2022, with the net carbon account for the period at 2,153 MtCO2e against a budget of 2,544 MtCO2e, an overachievement of 391 MtCO2e, or 15%1. The Committee notes that in 2019 the Government carried over 88 MtCO2e from the Second to the Third Carbon Budget against its advice, but later confirmed it would not use that carry-forward1.
Provisional figures put 2023 emissions at 393 MtCO2e, down 22 MtCO2e (5.4%) from 415 MtCO2e in 2022, excluding international aviation and shipping1. The report attributes much of that fall to a 10.5% drop in total gas demand, reflecting higher electricity imports, lower exports and reduced gas use in buildings and industry1. Outside electricity supply, the fall was 12 MtCO2e (3.2%), against an annual average of 6 MtCO2e (1.6%) over the preceding seven years1. The Committee says reductions outside electricity supply must now average 14 MtCO2e (4.6%) a year to 20301.
On buildings, the report sets out what it says is needed by 2030, alongside the position today:
| Measure | Position now | Needed by 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Existing homes heated by heat pump | about 1% | about 10% |
| Market share of new electric cars | 16.5% | nearly 100% |
| Annual offshore wind installations | current rate | at least three times |
| Annual solar installations | current rate | five times |
Source: Climate Change Committee, Progress in reducing emissions 2024 Report to Parliament1
The Committee's priority actions include removing the exemption of 20% of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out, addressing the gap left by removing obligations on landlords to improve the energy efficiency of rented homes, and reinstating the 2030 phase-out of new fossil-fuel car and van sales1. It also calls for removing policy costs from electricity prices so that the lower running costs of heat pumps relative to fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills1. It credits the increase to total funding and individual grants for heat pumps through the Boiler Upgrade Scheme with a significant rise in take-up1.
Why it matters for households
The report's numbers bear directly on how homes are heated and powered. Heat pumps currently heat about 1% of existing UK homes, and the Committee's pathway requires roughly 10% by 2030, which implies a large change in the equipment installed in homes and in the supply chain that serves them1. The Committee links the running-cost case for heat pumps to the way policy costs sit on electricity bills rather than gas, and says removing them from electricity prices would ensure the lower running costs of heat pumps compared with fossil-fuel boilers are reflected in household bills1. Its assessment of the Future Homes Standard is not covered in this report; the Committee's wider work on carbon budgets and net zero targets sets the framework against which household measures are judged. The report also notes that one million electric cars, 2.8% of the overall car fleet, are now on the road, and that rapid growth in electric car sales is beginning to have a measurable effect on emissions1. On energy security, the Committee states that British-based renewable energy is the cheapest and fastest way to reduce vulnerability to volatile global fossil fuel markets1.
What happens next
The Committee says it will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to Net Zero early in 20251. It sets out ten priority actions for the remainder of 2024, including reversing recent policy rollbacks, removing planning barriers for heat pumps, electric vehicle charge points and onshore wind, and strengthening the Third National Adaptation Programme with clear objectives and targets1. Further detail on the policy framework sits in the regulation and policy section.