NEA fuel poverty estimate updated for the price cap from 1 April 2024

National Energy Action's estimate that 6 million UK households, or 21.1 per cent, are in fuel poverty applies from 1 April 2024, the date the latest Ofgem price cap took effect¹. The figure is carried in the End Fuel Poverty Coalition's published methodology for price cap and fuel poverty estimates, which records a latest update of 10.04.24¹.

The estimate uses the 10 per cent metric, under which a household is considered to be in fuel stress if it spends 10 per cent of its income after housing costs and taxes on energy¹. The coalition states that NEA's approach is broadly in line with Resolution Foundation analysis of fuel stress, which also uses the 10 per cent metric¹.

The same page sets out how the estimate moves with prices. If energy bills reach £2,500 again, the coalition puts the number of UK households in fuel poverty at 7.5 million, or 26.3 per cent¹. Its own projections, based on Cornwall Insight projections of energy bills and a rough estimation of fuel poverty levels, give 6.0 million (21.1 per cent) from 1 July 2024, 6.2 million (21.8 per cent) from 1 October 2024 and 6.2 million (21.8 per cent) from 1 January 2025¹.

The figures rest on different definitions, and the coalition says so directly. The official definition used in England shows how many people on low incomes also live in low energy efficient homes, while Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland use different definitions, which the coalition says adds to the challenges¹. Its predictions instead use a percentage of income after tax and housing costs spent on energy bills, a measure it describes as closer to the number of households who will struggle to heat their home adequately or run vital equipment such as ovens, medical equipment or fans in the summer¹. It notes one limitation: the measure can include higher income earners as being fuel poor¹.

On the University of York and Child Poverty Action Group models, the coalition reports that 68 per cent of all fuel poor households under the 20 per cent model are receiving cost of living payments, leaving 32 per cent, or 1,768,000 households, not receiving them¹. Its regional and demographic projections have not been updated since the publication of the latest 2023 official fuel poverty data¹. The coalition's model for those projections applied a finding that for every 1 per cent rise in energy prices an additional 40,000 homes go into fuel poverty¹.

Why it matters for households

The 6 million figure is a UK-wide estimate built on a single definition, and it sits alongside official national measures that differ by nation, so a household's position under one measure does not automatically match another¹. The estimate is tied to the price cap level in force from 1 April 2024, which means it moves when the cap moves: the coalition's own projections rise from 6.0 million in July 2024 to 6.2 million from October 2024¹. For a household, that link between the cap and the count is the practical point. Energy independence at home, in the sense of not being exposed to price movements, is what the numbers describe the absence of. The coalition also records that a third of fuel poor households under the 20 per cent model were not receiving cost of living payments, which indicates that support does not reach every household counted as fuel poor¹.

What happens next

The coalition lists projected fuel poverty levels of 6.0 million (21.1 per cent) from 1 July 2024, 6.2 million (21.8 per cent) from 1 October 2024 and 6.2 million (21.8 per cent) from 1 January 2025, based on Cornwall Insight projections of energy bills¹. No further dated steps are given. The regional and demographic model has not been updated since the 2023 official fuel poverty data was published, and no date for an update has been reported¹.

Sources1 cited

1. Price cap and fuel poverty estimates methodology, endfuelpoverty.org.uk