A preprint published on 21 October 2023 by the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS) analyses electricity and gas consumption in 5,594 British households over the winter of 2022-23, the heating season that followed the October 2022 price rises. The authors are Ellen Zapata-Webborn, Clare Hanmer, Tadj Oreszczyn, Gesche Huebner, Eoghan McKenna, Jessica Few, Martin Pullinger, Simon Elam, Callum Cheshire, Dominic Friel, Harry Masters and Alex Whittaker.
The study used XGBoost counterfactual models trained on the same period in the previous winter1. Accounting for weather, average electricity consumption was 8.4% lower and gas consumption 10.8% lower than the previous winter, which the authors estimate saved consumers around £29 a month1. Despite that reduction and a government subsidy, energy bills were still around £34 a month higher than the previous winter, with a median of £158 a month and £500 a month at the 95th percentile1. The paper reports price elasticity of -0.10 for electricity and -0.07 for gas consumption1.
Survey data collected in early 2023 was used to examine how consumption reduction related to energy-saving actions, household and dwelling characteristics, and indicators of underheating and fuel poverty1. The authors state:
"We find evidence of greater fuel poverty and underheating among the greatest energy reducers"
The paper adds that those in the top 20% of consumption reducers reported much bigger changes to their heating practices, in particular heating homes for fewer hours than before and turning their thermostat down lower1. The abstract frames the season as one in which households "entered a heating season amidst a cost-of-living crisis and exceptionally high electricity and gas prices", squeezing incomes and increasing rates of fuel poverty1.
The preprint is published on SSRN under doi 10.2139/ssrn.4609172 and is open access1. It has not been reported whether the paper has completed peer review.
Why it matters for households
The figures describe a winter in which lower consumption did not translate into lower bills. Households cut their use, and the paper's own estimate puts the saving at around £29 a month, but wholesale prices and the level of the price cap meant bills were still about £34 a month above the previous winter. The gap between the two numbers is the practical point: reducing demand changes what a household pays, but it does not by itself restore the bill to what it was.
The finding on the biggest reducers is the second point. The households that cut most were also those showing signs of underheating and fuel poverty, which means the reduction was not simply efficiency or comfort taken at a lower cost. For a home's energy independence, the paper suggests the limit of what consumption cuts alone can achieve when prices are high, and that the households least able to absorb higher costs are the ones making the largest changes to how they heat.
The paper does not report which help with energy bills schemes individual households used, nor how the £34 monthly increase was distributed across payment methods or regions. It also does not separate the effect of the government subsidy from the effect of price levels. Those details have not been reported.
What happens next
The preprint is dated 21 October 2023 and carries a DOI. No date for peer review, revision or journal publication is given in the publication details1.