The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) published analysis on 29 September 2023 finding that the average winter energy bill is set to be just as high as the previous winter, at £1,200, because government support has come to an end for most households1. The finding was based on a price cap prediction released the same day by Cornwall Insight1.
The ECIU set the figure against the wider cost of the gas crisis. In the first year, October 2021 to October 2022, total costs for the average home were £1,450, all paid by the household. In 2022/23 total bills for the average home were over £3,400, of which the government paid £1,400 through the Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bill Support Scheme, leaving around £2,000 to be paid by the household1. Pre-crisis bills were around £1,100 per year for the average household, and the total cost after two years of the gas crisis has been £4,900 for the average household1.
For the entire third year of the gas crisis, from October 2023 to October 2024, gas bills paid by the household are likely to be almost as high as in the second year, at around £2,0001.
Polling by Focaldata for the ECIU, of 1,579 GB adults, found that 52% expected their energy costs to be higher this year than last year, 31% expected them to be the same and 11% expected them to be lower1. On blame, 49% pointed to Russia's impact on the supply and price of gas, 42% to oil and gas companies' profits, 19% to Brexit, 17% to growing worldwide gas demand and 8% to green levies or taxes1.
The ECIU also noted that the government had recently announced an increase in the support grant available for heat pumps from £5,000 to £7,5001.
"new Energy and Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) analysis has found that the average winter energy bill is set to be just as high as last year at £1,200"
| Period | Total cost for average home | Paid by government | Paid by household |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-crisis | around £1,100 per year | not stated | around £1,100 per year |
| Oct 2021 to Oct 2022 | £1,450 | none stated | £1,450 |
| Oct 2022 to Oct 2023 | over £3,400 | £1,400 | around £2,000 |
| Oct 2023 to Oct 2024 | not stated | not stated | around £2,000 (gas bills) |
Why it matters for households
The £1,200 winter figure matters because it is unchanged from the previous winter only as a result of support ending, not because wholesale costs fell. The Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bill Support Scheme, which together paid £1,400 towards the average home's bills in 2022/23, are treated in the analysis as closed1. A household's exposure therefore rests more fully on the price cap and on what sits inside it, including standing charges and policy costs and levies. The ECIU's polling suggests public attribution of the cause is concentrated on gas supply and company profits rather than green levies1. For energy independence, the practical point is that the household share of the bill has risen even where the headline winter number has not, and the analysis gives no figure for the third year's total cost beyond gas bills.
What happens next
The ECIU analysis covers the third year of the gas crisis, October 2023 to October 2024, and the £1,200 winter figure derives from Cornwall Insight's price cap prediction for next year's cap, released on 29 September 20231. No further dated steps are set out in the source.