A study by researchers at ETH Zürich has concluded that a green hydrogen heating system would be roughly "two to three times more expensive" than one relying on electric heat pumps in the EU and UK1. The research, by Dr Till Weidner and Prof Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, was published in the journal Energy Conversion and Management and reported by Carbon Brief on 23 February 20231.
The authors modelled 13 scenarios for decarbonising heat across the 27 EU member states and the UK by 2040, comparing both cost and environmental impacts1. The scenarios included one in which all building heat comes from 100% green hydrogen and another using 100% blue hydrogen, made from gas with carbon dioxide captured1. Both were considerably more expensive than alternatives, mainly because of the costs of making and storing hydrogen and, for green hydrogen, building additional renewable energy capacity1. The study found that a low-carbon transition keeping costs down without excessive environmental damage is "only possible through electrification via heat pumps"1.
The lowest-cost scenario in the study included 24% of heating provided by hydrogen, mainly blue, but that result was based on gas prices at their pre-crisis levels1. Prof Guillén-Gosálbez told Carbon Brief that blue hydrogen from natural gas would be expected to become less cost-competitive as gas prices rise1. The study also found that blue hydrogen production emissions mean it is "far from being absolutely sustainable", and that even a green hydrogen-heavy scenario exceeds planetary boundaries because of the environmental impacts of constructing large amounts of additional renewables1.
"We would expect that blue hydrogen from natural gas becomes less cost-competitive as the price of natural gas increases."
The findings align with a review by Dr Jan Rosenow of the Regulatory Assistance Project, who surveyed 32 independent studies concluding that hydrogen use in domestic heating is "less economic, less efficient, more resource intensive and associated with larger environmental impacts" than alternatives1. Dr Laurence Stamford of the University of Manchester, who was not involved in the study, told Carbon Brief it "tells us fairly definitively that a future focused on hydrogen heating does not fit within our planetary boundaries"1. The International Energy Agency says heat pumps are "the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating"1.
| Scenario | Relative system cost |
|---|---|
| 100% green hydrogen | Two to three times more expensive than heat pumps |
| 100% blue hydrogen | Considerably more expensive; cost-competitiveness undermined by high gas prices |
| 100% electrification via heat pumps | Lowest-cost low-carbon option in the study |
Why it matters for households
The study addresses the running cost of a home's heat source, which is the part of home heating running costs by fuel that households feel most directly. Its conclusion is that a home heated by green hydrogen would cost roughly two to three times more to run than one using a heat pump, once the costs of producing and storing the hydrogen and building the renewable capacity to make it are counted1. Hydrogen is a less efficient way of delivering energy than direct electrification: heating homes with renewable green hydrogen would require five to six times more wind and solar capacity than providing the same warmth with heat pumps1.
For homes off the gas grid, the comparison is with the fuels those homes use now, and the study does not model individual property types or off-grid heating specifically. The researchers note that all their scenarios, including heat pump-centred ones, are more expensive than the existing fossil fuel-dependent heating system, based on pre-energy crisis gas prices1. They highlight a need for policies focused on subsidising heat pumps and on research to bring costs down1. The study also acknowledges that hydrogen could still play a role in some heating applications, with Guillén-Gosálbez saying that combating climate change "will require a range of technologies optimised for local conditions"1.
What happens next
The study's authors state that energy policies should focus on subsidising heat pumps to ease the burden on consumers and on increasing research efforts to bring down costs1. No further dated steps are reported. The UK government's planned hydrogen village trial, which tests hydrogen's potential for home heat, is noted in the reporting1; the outcome of that trial has not been reported here.