National Energy Action (NEA) has projected that 8.4 million UK households will be in fuel poverty from April 2023, up from 4.5 million in October 20221. The charity published the figures on 1 December 2022, ahead of its Fuel Poverty Awareness Day on Friday 2 December1.
The increase is attributed to two changes to government support. The £400 Energy Bills Support Scheme (EBSS) ceases from next year and will be targeted at the most vulnerable, and the Energy Price Guarantee raises the average annual energy bill to £3,000 from April, which NEA describes as a 40% increase on current prices1. NEA states that in October 2021 the average annual energy bill was £1,277, and by April 2023 it will be £3,000, meaning prices will have more than doubled in 18 months1. It notes this is an average, and that larger households, inefficient homes or high usage, perhaps because of medical equipment, will pay more1.
NEA's breakdown of the groups it expects to be in fuel poverty from April is set out below1. A later NEA article adds a figure of 2.5 million people over 60, which does not appear in the 1 December release2.
| Group | Households or people in fuel poverty from April 2023 |
|---|---|
| Carers | 1.8 million |
| Low-income and financially vulnerable households | 5.9 million |
| People with a disability | 3.6 million |
| Households in off-gas homes | 1.6 million |
| People over 60 | 2.5 million2 |
Adam Scorer, chief executive of NEA, said:
"This winter has already been bleak and next year is set to be even worse. With Government support being reduced and energy bills spiralling yet again in April, one in three households will be in fuel poverty."
Separate polling carried out by Ipsos for the University of Birmingham, cited by NEA, found that 81% of respondents said they would definitely or probably leave the heating on for less time than usual, 77% would turn the thermostat down lower than usual, and 41% said they would turn their heating off completely1. In the previous three months, 13% had reduced the use of their medical equipment at least once a week to reduce their energy bill or save money generally, and 55% were already rationing hot water1. Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,049 adults aged 16 to 75 in the UK between 31 October and 3 November 20221.
Why it matters for households
Fuel poverty is measured here as spending 10% or more of income on energy in order to stay warm2. On NEA's figures, the number of households in that position nearly doubles within six months, from 4.5 million to 8.4 million1. The practical effect is that a larger share of household income is committed to heating and power, leaving less for everything else, and that the withdrawal of the £400 EBSS removes a flat payment that every household currently receives1. For homes off the gas grid, 1.6 million of which NEA expects to be in fuel poverty, the options for switching fuel or tariff are narrower than for homes on mains gas1. The polling figures indicate that some households are already cutting back on heating time, thermostat settings and hot water, and that a minority are reducing the use of medical equipment to save money1. For a household's energy independence, the projection points to a period in which bills are set by the level of the price guarantee and the availability of targeted support, rather than by anything the household controls.
What happens next
Fuel Poverty Awareness Day took place on Friday 2 December 20221. NEA's follow-up article, published 7 December 2022, said the day's hashtag was trending fifth on Twitter and that the release led to over 300 mentions, 263 of which mentioned Fuel Poverty Awareness Day2. NEA also published a fuel poverty map and an MP template letter2. The changes to the Energy Price Guarantee and the Energy Bills Support Scheme take effect from April 20231.