The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has published analysis finding that if the UK had installed heat pumps at the same rate per 100,000 people as Estonia, UK domestic gas use would have been 107TWh, or 34%, lower than in 2021, and gas imports in 2021 could have been cut by a fifth (19%)1.
The comparison rests on deployment rates. Estonia sold 1,583 heat pumps per 100,000 people in 2021 and Poland sold 259 per 100,000, which the ECIU describes as 25 times and four times the UK's rate of 63 respectively1. Total installed numbers also differ: the UK has 280,000 heat pumps installed, against 3.1 million in France and 1.3 million in Norway1. Across Europe, heat pumps have already replaced about 20% of boilers1.
The UK's main support mechanism is the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which offers a £5,000 grant for air source and £6,000 for ground source heat pumps, aims to install 90,000 heat pumps over three years, was launched in late May 2022 and will run until April 20251. In September and October 2022, monthly installations registered by the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) were around 2,500, and the number of installers taking part in the scheme almost doubled from around 450 to 900 after launch1. Octopus Energy and Halifax have announced a pilot under which Halifax mortgage customers would be offered air source heat pumps for as little as £2,000 fully installed1.
"If the UK had already installed the same amount of heat pumps per 100,000 people as Estonia, our domestic gas use would be 107TWh or 34% lower than in 2021 and our gas imports in 2021 could have been cut by a fifth (19%)"
The ECIU also cites international market growth: sales grew by 15% in the US and 35% in the EU, and global growth in the heat pump market in 2021 was the highest on record at 13%1. In Estonia, a heat-as-a-service model, where consumers rent heat pumps for 10 to 15 years and avoid upfront and maintenance costs, drew demand from 20% of consumers against predictions of 5%, four times higher than expected1. Polling for the ECIU earlier in the year found one third of the British public would be more likely to get an electric heat pump to help insulate the UK from Russia interfering in the gas market1.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| UK domestic gas use reduction if matching Estonia's rate | 107TWh, or 34%, below 2021 |
| UK gas imports reduction | 19% |
| Estonia sales per 100,000 people, 2021 | 1,583 |
| Poland sales per 100,000 people, 2021 | 259 |
| UK sales per 100,000 people, 2021 | 63 |
| UK heat pumps installed | 280,000 |
| France heat pumps installed | 3.1 million |
| Norway heat pumps installed | 1.3 million |
Why it matters for households
The analysis links the pace of heat pump uptake directly to how much gas a country needs to import, and therefore to exposure to international gas prices. On the ECIU's figures, the gap between the UK's installation rate and Estonia's represents 107TWh of domestic gas use and 19% of 2021 imports. For a household, that is the difference between a home heated by gas delivered through the grid and one heated by electricity, with the associated change in how much of a household's energy independence rests on imported fuel rather than on supplies it can influence. The comparison with France and Norway, and with Poland's higher per-capita sales, sets the UK's 280,000 installed units against much larger installed bases elsewhere1. The ECIU's polling figure, that one third of the British public would be more likely to install an electric heat pump to reduce exposure to Russian interference in the gas market, indicates that concern about national supply is a factor in household decisions1.
What happens next
The Boiler Upgrade Scheme runs until April 20251. The ECIU gives no further dated milestones beyond that, and no figures for installations after October 2022 have been reported.