The End Fuel Poverty Coalition has published estimates that the 1 October price cap rise will put 21 million people in around 9 million homes, or 32 per cent of UK households, into fuel poverty this winter1. The coalition says the figures take into account government support announced so far and are historically reflective of the definitions of fuel poverty used in official statistics1. It adds that the numbers are set to grow to around 28 million people in 12 million UK households, 42 per cent, from January 2023 unless urgent action is taken by the Government1.
The estimates were published as the Warm This Winter petition passed 110,000 signatures1. The coalition says the petition was launched on the Friday before, as the Ofgem price cap for this winter was confirmed1. The campaign calls for more emergency money for people this winter, funding to help everyone cut their bills with better insulation, and a rapid move away from expensive gas and onto cheaper, renewable energy1.
"From the price cap rise on 1 October, the estimates show that 21 million people in around 9 million homes (32%) will be affected this winter."
The coalition's figures sit alongside other measures of the problem. It notes that estimates from the University of York, using a measure of 10 per cent of income being spent on energy bills, put the numbers at 54 per cent of households from October, rising to 78 per cent in January 2023, but that this is not the definition used by the different UK governments1. Separately, the heat pump manufacturer Daikin cites National Energy Action's estimate that the number of UK households in fuel poverty would more than double in the year from October 2021 to October 2022, from four million to 8.5 million, which it describes as one in three family homes spending more than 10 per cent of full household income to stay warm2. Daikin also states that the price cap rose by 50 per cent in April 2022 and that it expected a similar increase in October2. The two sets of figures use different definitions and are not directly comparable.
| Measure | From 1 October 2022 | From January 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| End Fuel Poverty Coalition estimate | 21 million people, around 9 million homes (32%) | Around 28 million people, 12 million households (42%) |
| University of York measure (10% of income) | 54% of households | 78% of households |
Why it matters for households
Fuel poverty figures describe how many homes cannot afford to keep warm, and the coalition's estimates indicate that roughly a third of UK households fall into that position from 1 October, rising towards two fifths in the new year1. The coalition says the households in these numbers all have a real risk of making daily economic sacrifices that compromise their standard of living, with many at risk of health complications caused by living in a cold damp home1. For a household's energy independence, the estimates point to a winter in which a large share of homes depend on emergency support rather than on affordable energy they can pay for themselves. The coalition's own framing links the level of bills to the country's reliance on gas, calling for a move onto renewable energy and improved energy efficiency of buildings1. Daikin, writing from a manufacturer's position, states that off-gas homes heated by inefficient electric storage heaters are particularly vulnerable to price increases, and that households installing a heat pump could typically expect bills to come down by 20 to 30 per cent, with access to time-of-use or off-peak electricity tariffs2. It also points to government funding schemes including the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, the Local Authority Delivery scheme and Home Upgrade Grants2.
What happens next
The coalition says regional figures related to its measure will be published in September 20221. Its January 2023 projection is conditional on no further government action1. The coalition also cites a University College London Institute of Health Equity report predicting a humanitarian crisis for children in cold homes1, and a Resolution Foundation warning about the biggest squeeze in living standards for a century1.