Deadline for Government and Parliament to decide the Seventh Carbon Budget level

The Government has proposed a level for the Seventh Carbon Budget, a legally binding limit on UK greenhouse gas emissions over the five-year period 2038 to 2042, and Parliament must approve or reject that level by 30 June 2026¹. The draft budget is set at 535m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), some 107MtCO2e per year, which the Government says is equivalent to cutting emissions to 87% below 1990 levels by 2040².

The Climate Change Committee, which advises the Government under the Climate Change Act 2008, recommended that level in February 2025¹. Its advice was that the limit should be 535 MtCO2e, including emissions from international aviation and shipping¹. The Committee said it was then for the Government to propose a level to Parliament, and for Parliament to approve or reject it, by 30 June 2026¹. Carbon Brief reported that no government has ever gone against the Committee's advice when setting carbon budgets, though a government may choose not to follow it if it explains why³.

In a written statement to Parliament, energy secretary Ed Miliband said the target would reduce the UK's exposure to volatile international fossil-fuel markets and protect bill-payers².

"Against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical instability, including the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and its implications for global energy markets, the case for setting a clear and credible long-term pathway for the UK on clean energy and climate action is stronger than ever."

The Government's impact assessment puts the investment needed to meet the budget at around £880bn over 25 years, against benefits it values at £1,620bn². It says the budget would help save £445bn up to 2050 from reduced fossil-fuel imports, and that the benefits would be worth £1,035bn relative to no net-zero if the country faces persistently high fossil-fuel prices². The assessment also sets out a less ambitious goal of 83% below 1990 levels by 2040 and a tighter target of 89%². Carbon Brief reported that in late May 2026 a group wrote to Miliband arguing the 87% by 2040 target fails to comply with international obligations².

The Committee's pathway for meeting the budget rests mainly on electrification. It found that electrification and low-carbon electricity supply make up the largest share of emissions reductions, 60% by 2040, and that this requires twice as much electricity as today by 2040¹. Its figures for 2040 include offshore wind growing six-fold from 15 GW in 2023 to 88 GW, onshore wind doubling to 32 GW, and solar reaching 82 GW¹. On heating, it sees around half of UK homes using a heat pump by 2040, against around 1% in 2023, with annual installations in existing homes rising from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035¹. It states that heat pumps are around three-to-four times more efficient than gas boilers, which should lead to lower household energy bills, provided policy costs are removed from electricity bills¹.

Why it matters for households

The budget is a cap on national emissions, not a limit on any individual home, but the pathway behind it describes changes in how homes are heated and how people travel. The Committee's figures put around half of homes on a heat pump by 2040 and three-quarters of cars and vans electric by the same date¹. It states that all new and replacement heating systems become low carbon after 2035, to ensure a fully decarbonised housing stock by 2050¹. On running costs, it says heat pumps are around three-to-four times more efficient than gas boilers, which should lead to lower household energy bills, provided policy costs are removed from electricity bills¹. Carbon Brief reported the Committee's estimate that the transition would cut average household energy bills to £700 below today's levels by 2050 and cut household motoring costs by a similar amount³. The Government's delivery plan for the previous budget said roughly a third of UK homes should have heat pumps by 2035 and around half of cars on the road should be EVs². For a household, the practical link between the budget and energy independence is the stated aim of cutting reliance on imported fossil fuels: the Government says the UK could cut its reliance on fossil fuels from around three quarters of its energy today to around 15% by 2050². The Committee's advice on the wider framework is set out in its guidance on carbon budgets and net zero targets, and the process by which such levels are proposed and decided is covered in energy consultations and how policy is made.

What happens next

The seventh carbon budget must be approved by Parliament before the end of June 2026². The legislation is subject to the affirmative procedure, meaning it must be debated and voted through by both houses, which can reject the Government's proposal³. The Government must then publish a plan to meet the budget as soon as reasonably practicable². The Committee has backed a proposal for the Government to publish its plan for meeting the budget before the target is voted on, noting that the Climate Change Act requires the final plan to be published after the budget has been set³. Separately, the Committee's advice on Scotland's four carbon budgets, covering 2026 to 2045, recommends annual average reductions of 57%, 69%, 80% and 94% below 1990 levels across the four periods⁴. Scotland's interim targets for 2030 and 2040 were repealed in 2024, and the Committee noted that proposals for regulations to upgrade properties at the point of sale have been abandoned, with no specific alternative measures yet to deliver the target for heating to be zero emissions by 2045⁴.

Sources4 cited

1. The Seventh Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk
2. Q&A: How UK’s seventh carbon budget will deliver '£865bn’ in economic benefits - Carbon Brief, carbonbrief.org
3. CCC: Reducing emissions 87% by 2040 would help ‘cut household costs by £1,400’ - Carbon Brief, carbonbrief.org
4. Scotland's Carbon Budgets - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk