The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said in its January 2026 release on car sales for the previous year that the "gap between demand [for EVs] and ambition [in the ZEV mandate] is increasing rather than diminishing"1. The body represents UK car manufacturers and publishes monthly and annual sales statistics1.
Under the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, targets for cars started at 22% of sales in 2024 and rise gradually each year to 80% by 20301. The SMMT said in May 2026 that there is a "persistent gap of around six percentage points against the mandate target" of 33% in 2026 and 38% in 20271. The gap it refers to is between the headline targets and the level of EV sales it expects, which the body says will reach 27% of all new cars this year and 33% in 20271.
"natural demand is still well below the level demanded by the mandate"
Official figures published in early 2026 showed the car market "over-complied" in 2024, despite only 19.8% of new sales being EVs that year1. When the mandate's "flexibilities", which allow firms to reduce targets by selling lower-emission petrol cars such as hybrids, are considered, the market met the equivalent of a 24.5% target, with a surplus of 2.5% "banked" for future years, according to the government1. All carmakers avoided fines for failing to meet their 2024 targets1. The SMMT told Carbon Brief in May 2026 that EV sales in 2024 had been below the headline target, and did not respond when asked to confirm that the market had nevertheless over-complied1.
The SMMT's figures for expected EV sales sit close to an estimate of the "real" 2026 target published by thinktank New Automotive, which found the headline 33% goal can be met even if EVs make up around 25% of sales once flexibilities are taken into account1. In April 2026, car sales platform Autotrader announced that new EVs are now cheaper to buy than petrol cars on average, "for the first time"1.
Why it matters for households
The mandate sets the share of new cars sold in the UK that must be zero emission, so it shapes what is available on forecourts and, indirectly, the choice and pricing households meet when replacing a car. The dispute is about whether the targets are running ahead of buyer demand or whether the industry's own figures understate compliance once flexibilities are counted. The two positions lead to different conclusions about how quickly the market is moving, and the SMMT's estimate of a six percentage point shortfall is measured against headline targets rather than the adjusted ones1. For a household weighing a switch away from petrol or diesel, the practical backdrop is a market where new EV prices have fallen to parity with petrol cars on average1, while the rules governing supply remain under review. Charging provision is a separate question from sales targets; the site's ev-charging hub covers that ground.
What happens next
The government has pledged to review the ZEV mandate, with results due to be published in "early 2027"1. Official figures confirming whether the industry met its 2025 target are not expected until 2027; Hawes said "no one will know" until then1. The SMMT has called for an "urgent review", which it says should be used to "align policy with market realities"1. Further detail on the rules and their timetable is set out in the site's regulation-policy hub.