The Scottish Government published its draft Climate Change Plan (CCP) on 6 November 2025, setting out the policies and proposals it will take forward to enable its carbon budgets to be met between 2026 and 20401. The plan covers the first three carbon budgets and was published for consultation and scrutiny; the Scottish Government states it has since been superseded by a final CCP published in March 20262.
The Climate Change Committee, which advises on carbon budgets and net zero targets, said the plan sets out how the Scottish Government intends to meet legally binding emissions targets that were set in line with its advice1. Its chair, Nigel Topping, said the Committee would judge the plan's delivery in its progress report early next year1.
"When we last assessed how Scotland was performing against its climate goals, we said that the Government needed to set out clear detail of how policies will work together to deliver the required levels of emissions reduction. We will assess the merits of whether this plan delivers that in our progress report early next year."
The plan's buildings annex states that emissions from buildings, primarily from heating, account for 15% of Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions, having fallen 39% since 1990 to 6.0 MtCO2e in 20233. It says the heat transition will require around 1.9 million homes and 13,000 public buildings to move to clean heating systems such as heat pumps and heat networks by 20453. It also cites 2023 figures estimating 861,000 households in Scotland (34%) are in fuel poverty and 491,000 (19.4%) in extreme fuel poverty3. The plan sets a target for decarbonising heating systems by 2045 so far as reasonably practicable, rather than prohibiting fossil fuel heating in every home, and states that key levers such as energy pricing sit with the UK Government3. It confirms the New Build Heat Standard, introduced in April 2024, will continue to require new buildings to use heating systems with zero or negligible direct emissions3.
The plan's economic section cites research stating Scotland's net zero economy has grown 21.3% since 2022, contributing £9.1 billion in GVA and supporting 100,700 full-time equivalent jobs, a 19.5% increase in employment since 20222. It names wind, carbon capture utilisation and storage, professional and financial services, hydrogen, and clean energy-intensive industries as five opportunity areas2.
The Committee's later progress report, published 25 February 2026, assessed the draft plan's pathway against the budgets. It found 91% of the emissions reduction required to meet the First Carbon Budget (2026 to 2030) is covered by credible plans or plans carrying only some risk, falling to 64% for the Second Carbon Budget (2031 to 2035) and 58% for the Third (2036 to 2040)4. It said the draft plan lacks sufficient plans for buildings, with very little emissions reduction projected over the next ten years and a rapid acceleration assumed in the late 2030s4. Scotland's territorial greenhouse gas emissions were 39.6 MtCO2e in 2023, 51.3% lower than 1990 levels, having fallen 2.6% between 2021 and 20234.
| Carbon budget | Period | Average annual emissions vs 1990 | Reduction from 2023 levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | 2026 to 2030 | 57% lower | 12% |
| Second | 2031 to 2035 | 69% lower | 36% |
| Third | 2036 to 2040 | 80% lower | 59% |
| Fourth | 2041 to 2045 | 94% lower | 88% |
Source: Climate Change Committee4
Why it matters for households
The plan's own figures put household heating at the centre of Scotland's climate targets: buildings account for 15% of emissions, and the stated pathway assumes around 1.9 million homes move to clean heating by 20453. For a household, that shapes what heating systems, energy efficiency measures and advice services are likely to be supported over the plan period, and what standards may apply to a home's energy performance. The plan states the Scottish Government is planning powers to set minimum energy efficiency standards for owner-occupier and non-domestic properties, subject to further consideration, and is developing a minimum standard for the private rented sector3. It also states revised Energy Performance Certificate regulations are expected to come into force in 20263. The Committee's assessment that buildings plans are insufficient over the next decade, with reductions assumed later, means the timing of any practical change to how homes are heated remains uncertain4. The plan states that clean heat combined with UK Government action on electricity prices would enable people to heat homes affordably, and that it regrets the powers to change pricing do not lie in Scotland3.
What happens next
The draft plan was published for consultation and scrutiny, and the Scottish Government states it has been superseded by the final CCP published in March 20262. The Climate Change Committee said it would assess whether the plan delivers the required emissions reduction in its progress report early next year1; that report was published on 25 February 20264. The plan states the Scottish Government will prepare a heat decarbonisation strategy3.
Sources4 cited
- Response to the Scottish Government's Climate Change Plan - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk
- Economic Opportunities of a Just Transition to Net Zero - Scotland's draft Climate Change Plan: 2026-2040 - gov.scot, gov.scot
- Annex 2 – Sectoral Annexes - Scotland's draft Climate Change Plan: 2026-2040 - gov.scot, gov.scot
- Progress in reducing emissions in Scotland - 2025 report to Parliament - Climate Change Committee, theccc.org.uk