The North Sea Transition Authority's most recent production projections, issued in August 2025, show North Sea gas production declining by 59 per cent by 2030 with no new drilling, compared with 52 per cent if new drilling goes ahead1. The figures were cited by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) in analysis published on 30 September 2025, which noted that its earlier text had used values from an October 2024 version of the same projections1.
The ECIU analysis, timed to Ofgem's new energy price cap coming into force on 1 October, puts the wholesale cost of energy at over £300 a year higher for a typical dual fuel household than before the gas crisis, equal to about £7bn a year across UK households1. Within that, the wholesale part of gas bills is £180 higher than in the four years before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and gas prices account for almost all of the extra £120 on the wholesale part of the electricity bill1.
Other components of the cap have also risen against the pre-crisis average, according to the same analysis1:
| Component | Change against pre-crisis average |
|---|---|
| Wholesale gas | £180 higher |
| Wholesale electricity | £120 higher |
| Network costs | £130 higher, including £55 for gas grids |
| Policy costs | £65 higher, including £34 for bill support and £28 for energy efficiency |
| Suppliers' operating costs and similar | £100 higher |
| VAT | £30 higher |
The ECIU states that pre-crisis gas prices were around £16/MWh, against £27/MWh currently seen on day-ahead markets, and that prices have fallen well below the £800/MWh peak seen during the crisis1. It also cites National Energy Action's estimate of 10 million people living in fuel poverty in July 20251. Ofgem has confirmed that reasons for the cap rising from July to October include expanding the Warm Homes Discount, with two-thirds of the £35 rise unrelated to net zero1.
"The transition to clean net zero technologies like heat pumps will also cut our dependence on gas price volatility while also helping to bring our climate back into balance."
Why it matters for households
The projections matter because they describe the direction of the UK's own gas supply, not just the price of imported gas. A 59 per cent fall in North Sea production by 2030 without new drilling means a larger share of the gas used in UK homes will be bought at prices set on international markets, where the ECIU says UK-produced gas is also sold1. That links a household's gas boiler, and the gas-fired power stations that help set electricity prices, to events far outside the UK.
The breakdown of the price cap shows how much of a bill sits outside a household's control: wholesale gas and electricity, network costs, policy costs, supplier costs and VAT1. The parts a household can influence are consumption and the efficiency of the home itself. The ECIU notes £28 of policy costs goes to fund energy efficiency upgrades for low-income households1. For homes looking at where their supply comes from and what they can control, see Energy Security and Household Independence: What Homes Can Control, and for the regional network picture, SP Energy Networks: Central Scotland, Merseyside and North Wales. The wider supply position is covered in the national supply hub.
What happens next
The Ofgem price cap referred to came into force on 1 October 20251. The NSTA projections cited are the August 2025 version, replacing the October 2024 version used in the earlier text1. No further dated steps are given in the sources.